by:
Sinan Adnan
Key Take-away: An
Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militia kidnapped 18 Turkish workers in Baghdad and
subsequently demanded concessions from Turkey related to its policies in Syria
and Lebanon. Turkey has recently concluded an agreement with the United States
to support the anti-ISIS coalition particularly in Syria, where Turkey has also
increased its support to opposition groups fighting the Iranian-backed Assad
regime. This kidnapping by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq is a new escalation
in the regional sectarian and geopolitical war between Iran and the Sunni states
in the Middle East. Iraqi Shi’a militias likely will increase regionally
focused action to support Iranian foreign policy, particularly as the Iraqi
government deals with significant political and military challenges that limit
its ability to respond.
Unidentified gunmen kidnapped 18 Turkish
workers from a construction site near Sadr City in eastern Baghdad on September
2. No group immediately claimed responsibility, but the demographics and
history of the area implicated Iraqi Shi’a militias. The event’s occurrence in
Iraq’s capital prompted the Iraqi government and security forces to act. A
force from the Iraqi Security Forces’ (ISF) Baghdad Operations Command (BOC) attempted
to rescue the hostages on
September 3 from a location on Palestine Street near the kidnapping site. The BOC
subsequently clashed with gunmen
from the prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militia, Kata’ib
Hezbollah, (KH) an Iranian-backed group designated as a terrorist group by
the U.S. Treasury Department that enjoys significant freedom of movement in Baghdad.
One ISF member died in the clashes, and three others were injured. Yet the
Iraqi government ceased public discussion of the incident, suggesting that it
wanted to avoid conflict with Iranian proxy groups, despite the blows such a
move would deal to the government’s authority. The Iraqi government currently
is facing challenges related to ISIS, internal power struggles, a major budget
deficit, and an emerging security vacuum in the vital southern province of Basra.
Government actions against proxy groups
could generate uncontrolled violence in Baghdad under these conditions.
Therefore, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi chose to refrain from action
against KH, despite his likely desire to target the groups.
The kidnapping was clearly the work of an Iranian-backed Shi’a
militia. An unidentified group released a 3-minute video on YouTube on
September 11, showing five masked gunmen signs reading “Death
Squads” and “Labayk Ya Hussein.” The latter slogan is used by Shi’a Muslims and
likely meant to show a Shi’a identity for the group. The kidnapping also took
place in an area of Baghdad where it is unlikely that independent smaller
groups would have freedom of movement to conduct such an attack without the
involvement of Iranian proxy groups. Moreover, the gunmen in the video displays
18 Turkish-speaking individuals confirmed to be the Turkish
hostages
kidnapped on September 2, recorded with Arabic subtitles that depict the
motives of the kidnappers. The Arabic translations of their remarks call for
the Turkish government to abide by the “demands” of their kidnappers. The
translation also criticizes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “aggressive
behavior in the region.” The slogans of “Death squads” and “Labayk Ya Hussein”
along with the messages regarding Turkey’s regional behavior indicate that the
kidnappers are members of Iranian-backed Shi’a militias in Iraq.
Above: Screenshot
of the video showing gunmen, the Turkish hostages, and the list of the demands.
The hostages read the kidnappers’ demands, which were also
displayed at the end of the video. The kidnappers demanded that Turkish President
Erdogan:
- “Seize gunmen” moving through Turkey to Iraq, a likely reference
to ISIS’s foreign fighter pipeline which traverses Turkey and Syria and augments
ISIS’s forces in Iraq;
- Halt the transfer of “stolen” oil from Iraqi Kurdistan through
Turkey, a standard expression of Iranian proxies’ animosity toward the Kurdish Democratic
Party;
- Cease support of Jaysh al-Fatah, a Syrian rebel coalition led by Syrian
al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.
- Lift Jaysh al-Fatah’s siege of specific majority Shi’a regime-held
enclaves in Syria, namely al-Fuaa, Kafariya,
Nubul, and al-Zahra, that are defended in part by Lebanese Hezbollah in
northern Syria. The demand follows two failed ceasefire agreements between
pro-Syrian regime fighters and opposition fighters, mediated by Iran and
Turkey. Jaysh al-Fatah laid siege to
these areas in order to demand that Lebanese Hezbollah, which is besieging the
Sunni town of Zabadani, release civilian and opposition fighters there.
The kidnapping represented more than a backlash by Shia militias
against PM Abadi for his reforms curbing the
militias’ power. The Iranian proxies were motivated by a desire to further
Iran’s regional agenda in response to Turkey’s increased commitment in Syria.
The overt and violent support for Iran’s regional agenda by Iraq’s Shi’a
militias is a step-change. These cross-theater demands demonstrate that Iranian-backed
militias in Iraq will act on Iran’s behalf in the regional sectarian and
geopolitical war between Iran and the Sunni states of the Middle East. This
escalation will likely contribute to more destabilization and violence in Iraq,
Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Locally in Iraq, this incident shows how Iran gains
from nurturing and maintaining proxy groups to execute its regional agenda.
Iran will therefore continue to act against measures by PM Abadi to execute a reform agenda that weakens
the proxies by dislodging their ally, former PM Nouri al-Maliki, from his post
as a VP and bringing militias under state control. Iranian proxies in Iraq
recently obstructed the passing of
the National Guard Law at the Council of Representatives, (CoR) a draft law
that has the potential to bring these groups under state control. Iran and its
proxies remain capable of creating conditions that can undermine the very partners
that the U.S. supports to combat ISIS, particularly the Iraqi government and
the ISF.
The office of Grand Ayatollah
Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s leading Shi’a cleric, demanded the release of the Turkish
hostages on September 12 and criticized the kidnapping for the damage it has on
the authority of the state and the Iraqi government. The Iranian-backed Iraqi
Shi’a militias, unlike most Shi’a in Iraq, do not follow Sistani, but rather,
Iran’s Supreme Leader. Accordingly, this incident is likely to generate more
intra-Shi’a friction and polarization within Iraq. The leader of the Sadrist
Trend, Moqtada al-Sadr, also criticized the kidnappers on September 12 and their representation of Shi’a Islam.
Sadr called for the government to take action to release the hostages and expressed
“our” readiness to support, referring to the Sadrist Trend. Sadr alluded to the involvement of the proxies by reiterating
his warning about the "brazen militias," a term he uses to describe
these groups. In addition, Sadr called for "boycotting them" and
distancing them from the Popular Mobilization. The Peace
Brigades, the armed wing of the Sadrist Trend previously known as Jaysh
al-Mahdi, also operates in areas near the kidnapping site and other Shi’a
neighborhoods in Baghdad. His group is currently competing with the proxies and
previously clashed with AAH in Baghdad, although previous clashes had been
contained by the leaders of the groups. It is therefore important to watch if
increased tension between the proxies and Sadr generates Shi’a group infighting
in the capital.
The threat to U.S. interests emanating from the Middle East is not
constrained to ISIS. Conflict among regional powers such as Iran and Turkey can
undermine U.S. efforts and interests in the region. It is critical to watch for
the response of the Iraqi government as internal and external pressure mounts,
particularly if the government decides to take decisive military actions against
the militias in Baghdad to preserve its image and state authority. The U.S.
must also watch for additional coercive behavior by Iranian-backed groups as
they act aggressively to preserve the Assad regime under pressure.
