Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, Siddhant Kishore, and Brian Carter
- Couriers. Hezbollah has relied on couriers in the past but usually in combination with modern communications devices, such as the pagers or the two-way radios that Israel has destroyed.[13] Relying solely on couriers would significantly slow the speed at which Hezbollah commanders could communicate orders to their subordinates to respond to Israeli operations, given the wide geographic distribution of Hezbollah fighters across Lebanon. Couriers could still remain effective within lower Hezbollah echelons operating within one relatively small sector.
- Landlines phones. Hezbollah has reportedly relied upon an Iranian-financed, private telecommunications network that involves fiber optic cables running from Beirut to southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.[14] Hezbollah may rely upon this network more heavily following Israel‘s attacks. Landlines can be relatively easily tapped or intercepted, however, and Israel has tapped Hezbollah landlines in the past.[15] Hezbollah may no longer trust landlines following the recent massive security breaches into systems previously thought to be impervious to Israeli hacking. It is unlikely that the fiber optic cable network extends to every tactically significant site inhabited by Hezbollah fighters, making this communication method suboptimal.
- Satellite phones. Hezbollah members, particularly high-level commanders, likely own satellite phones for use in an emergency. Satellite phone networks are not necessarily secure, however. Hezbollah fighters may be hesitant to use electronic devices such as satellite phones because of fears that Israel has compromised other supply chains outside of the pagers and radios. Satellite phones are also very expensive.
- Tactical radio relay systems: Hezbollah could decide to revert to older tactical communications systems. These systems are relatively easy to set up and use compared to landlines and couriers, both of which require substantial infrastructure or personnel. These systems can be jammed or intercepted, however. The IDF’s ability to intercept these systems and listen in on Hezbollah communications would make using these radio systems substantially less desirable for Hezbollah.
- Cell phones: Hezbollah previously advised its members to stop using cell phones to avoid Israeli detection and subsequent Israeli targeting, including by banning cell phone usage on the battlefield.[16] It is easy to track cell phone movements, which can be used to target Hezbollah fighters.[17] However, the lack of more accessible and rapid options to re-establish communications could force Hezbollah to return to cell phone use, even briefly, in order to effectively respond to a potential Israeli campaign. Hezbollah would risk Israeli surveillance and hacking in this scenario, therefore putting Hezbollah fighters at greater risk of targeted strikes or advertising Hezbollah movements. Hezbollah may calculate this is an acceptable risk to assume given the circumstances.
Hezbollah vowed to retaliate against the Israeli attacks in a statement on September 17.[18] The speed with which Hezbollah can bring up and organize these communication systems will determine how effectively and orderly it can respond to the Israeli attacks or a potential Israeli campaign.
Key Takeaways:
- Lebanon: Israel continued to destroy Lebanese Hezbollah tactical communications devices on September 18. Israel’s multi-stage attack on Hezbollah communications will force Hezbollah to urgently reestablish reliable tactical communications, particularly in the event of an Israeli offensive campaign into Lebanon. Iran and its Axis of Resistance may decide to defend Hezbollah or help it reestablish deterrence vis-a-vis Israel during Hezbollah’s short period of vulnerability created by the communications crisis.
- Iranian Response to the Pager Attack: Iranian officials condemned Israel for the pager attack that blew up Lebanese Hezbollah fighters’ pagers’ batteries in Lebanon on September 17.
- Iraq: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad on September 17 to meet with Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders, according to Iraqi media. Ghaani met with Asaib Ahl al Haq Secretary General Qais al Khazali, Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri, and Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi, among other militia leaders. Iraqi media did not provide details about what Ghaani and the militia leaders discussed, although Ghaani typically travels to Baghdad to coordinate or mediate among Iraqi militias or to give the militias new orders and instructions.
- Gaza Strip: The Egyptian foreign minister said that Egypt would not accept an Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor on September 18. An anonymous official in the region told Western media that the trip is meant to assuage Israeli concerns that Hamas can smuggle weapons and other military materials through the Philadelphi Corridor into the Gaza Strip.
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
- Hamid Khorramdel. Khorramdel is the commander of the IRGC's Fatah Corps in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province. He was involved in suppressing protests and activists in 2019 and 2022.
- Mustafa Bazvand. Bazvand is the commander of the IRGC and Basij Resistance Force in Mazandaran Province’s Babolsar County. Bazvand led the regime’s crackdown in Babolsar during the Mahsa Amini protests in 2022.
- Ali Malek Shahkoui. Malek Shahkoui is the commander of the IRGC’s Golestan Corps in Golestan Province. He organized the IRGC’s response to the Mahsa Amini protests in Golestan in 2022.
- Saeed Beheshti Rad. Beheshti Rad is the deputy coordinator of the IRGC’s Hazrat Nabi Akram Corps in Kermanshah Province. He was responsible for the violent crackdown on protesters in 2019 and 2022.
- Ali Abdi. Abdi has served as the South Khorasan Province Prisons director general since July 2022. Iran wrongfully executed several prisoners during his tenure, and several other prisoners died due to lack of medical care.
- Alireza Babaei Farsani. Farsani is the Isfahan Province Prisons acting director general. Iranian prison guards subjected prisoners to torture, harassment, sexual violence, and other poor treatment during his tenure.
- Ahmad Reza Azadeh. Azadeh is the head of Sepidar Prison and previously served as the head of Shiban Prison from 2019 to 2023. Iranian prison guards subjected prisoners to torture and inadequate conditions.
- Gholamreza Roshan. Roshan is the Khuzestan Province Prisons acting director general. Iranian prison guards subjected political prisoners to torture and poor treatment under his tenure.
- Yahya Hosseini Panjaki. Panjaki is the Iranian deputy intelligence and security minister for internal security affairs and oversees the regime’s efforts to assassinate Iranian dissidents abroad.
- Javad Ghaffarhaddadi. Ghaffarhaddadi is head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s Special Operations division. He is responsible for the targeting of Iranian dissidents in and outside Iran.
- Hamid Zareikajosangi. Zareikajosangi is a field operative and a part of the IRGC Quds force. He is responsible for recruiting Quds Force members.
- Mahmud Baghlani. Baghlani is an IRGC affiliate responsible for acting on behalf of the IRGC.
[1] https://www.axios.com/2024/09/18/israel-detonates-hezbollah-walkie-talkies-second-wave-after-pager-attack
[2] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1836463804269437164; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/18/hezbollah-israel-pager-attack-lebanon-explosions/
[3] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hundreds-of-hezbollah-operatives-pagers-explode-in-apparent-attack-across-lebanon-cf31cad4?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-ambassador-lebanon-injured-by-pager-explosion-2024-09-17/ ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13793 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13797 ; https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/hezbollah-pager-explosion-israel-didnt-tell-biden-administration
[4] https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1836417173385867546; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/18/hezbollah-israel-pager-attack-lebanon-explosions/
[5] https://www.axios.com/2024/09/18/israel-detonates-hezbollah-walkie-talkies-second-wave-after-pager-attack
[6] https://www.axios.com/2024/09/18/israel-detonates-hezbollah-walkie-talkies-second-wave-after-pager-attack
[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-planted-explosives-hezbollahs-taiwan-made-pagers-say-sources-2024-09-18 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-pager-attack-puts-spotlight-israels-cyber-warfare-unit-8200-2024-09-18; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/new-details-in-hezbollah-pager-attack-point-to-supply-chain-breach-by-israel-8cd76a60
[8] https://www.axios.com/2024/09/18/israel-detonates-hezbollah-walkie-talkies-second-wave-after-pager-attack
[9] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/new-details-in-hezbollah-pager-attack-point-to-supply-chain-breach-by-israel-8cd76a60
[10] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/hezbollah-israel-walkie-talkie-explosives.html
[11] https://t.me/C_Military1/45733 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pagers-drones-how-hezbollah-aims-counter-israels-high-tech-surveillance-2024-07-09/ ; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-pagers-explosives.html; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-10-2024
[12] https://www.axios.com/2024/09/18/israel-detonates-hezbollah-walkie-talkies-second-wave-after-pager-attack
[13] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pagers-drones-how-hezbollah-aims-counter-israels-high-tech-surveillance-2024-07-09/
[14] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pagers-drones-how-hezbollah-aims-counter-israels-high-tech-surveillance-2024-07-09/
[15] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2024-07-26/israel-is-spying-on-hezbollah-commanders-and-killing-them-one-by-one
[16] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pagers-drones-how-hezbollah-aims-counter-israels-high-tech-surveillance-2024-07-09/
[17] https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/17/middleeast/lebanon-pager-attack-explosions-hezbollah-explainer-intl-latam/index.html?ICID=ref_fark
[18] https://t.me/mmirleb/6985
[19] https://t.me/centerkaf/4586
[20] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/691665/
[21] https://x.com/mojtaba_amaani/status/1836388573626384872
[22] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/28/3160728
[23] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/691697/
[24] https://mfa dot ir/portal/NewsView/753364
[25] https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/1959245
[26] https://www.entekhab dot ir/fa/news/818387 ;
https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/691569/
[27] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D9%82%D8%A7-%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B5%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%81%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D9%81%D8%B5%D8%A7-%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9
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[29] https://www.presstv dot ir/Detail/2024/09/13/733175/%E2%80%98Several-resistance-fronts-ready-to-execute-operations-against-Israel%2C-allies%E2%80%99
[30] https://x.com/USAmbIraq/status/1834487174286262565
[31] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-11-2024
[32] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypt-wont-accept-security-changes-gaza-border-foreign-minister-says-2024-09-18/
[33] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/blinken-heads-to-middle-east-in-bid-to-revive-cease-fire-negotiations-e1b65731?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos4; https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-egypt/
[34] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/blinken-heads-to-middle-east-in-bid-to-revive-cease-fire-negotiations-e1b65731?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos4
[35] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836352787099078784
[36] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836352790148379103
[37] https://t.me/sarayaps/18594
[38] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4409
[39] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836243858817974348; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13872;
https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-09-18/ty-article/four-israeli-soldiers-killed-in-southern-gaza-explosion/00000192-03cd-df16-afbe-6fed824e0000#:~:text=Left%20to%20right%3A%20Agam%20Naim,Mimon%20Toaff%20and%20Dotan%20Shimon.&text=Four%20Israeli%20soldiers%20were%20killed,in%2C%20according%20to%20the%20IDF.
[40] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836243861368148086
[41] https://t.me/moriahdoron/13872
[42] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7517 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1584 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1585 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1587 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7518
[43] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7517
[44] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1587
[45] https://t.me/mmirleb/6988 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6991 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6992 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6997
[46] https://t.me/mmirleb/6992 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6991
[47] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1836418649172684998
[48] https://x.com/doron_kadosh/status/1836325605857443913?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q
[49] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1836331751888576718
[50] www dot idf.il/226979 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1750047194051236097 ; www dot idf.il/201461
[51] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836376574590906772
[52] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836376598712373487
[53] https://www dot idf.il/231536
[54] https://t.me/aishab_alkahf/216
[55] https://t.me/aishab_alkahf/212
[56] https://t.me/centerkaf/4586
[57] https://t.me/Al_Nojaba/1195
[58] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1836329769887051879
[59] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/28/3160795/
[60] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2587
[61] https://iranwire.com/en/women/134055-irans-guardian-council-approves-hijab-chastity-bill/
[62] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-june-9-2023
[63] https://www.sharghdaily dot com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-100/935066-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%84%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AD%D9%87-%D8%B9%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%AD%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%A8
[64] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/demonstrations-mahsa-amini-turning-point-iran