Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Andie Parry, Katherine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Kathryn Tyson, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter
- Masoud Pezeshkian (reformist): Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of increased public participation in the economy, including by women and minority groups. Pezeshkian also emphasized the importance of high voter turnout rates for the final election on July 5. He probably calculates that a greater voter turnout will improve his chances at election.[13] Pezeshkian said that international sanctions cause Iran’s economic issues in part, but that the government’s failure to fully implement economic policy also contributes to Iran’s economic woes.[14] Pezeshkian said that improving the economy also requires pragmatism in diplomatic relations with the world, noting that Iran will ”never...cancel all sanctions” and that loosening sanctions depends on ”what we give [diplomatically] and what we get [diplomatically]“ and whether Iran wants to ”solve [its] problem with the world or not.”[15] Pezeshkian also noted the value of strong management within government.
- Saeed Jalili (ultraconservative hardliner): Jalili focused on how the next government can create more employment opportunities.[16] Jalili agreed with Pezeshkian that greater participation in the economy is better.[17] Jalili proposed finding alternative trade partners to alleviate sanctions’ impact on the Iranian economy.[18] This suggestion presumably means that China, Russia, and other US adversaries. Jalili did not suggest returning to nuclear negotiations as a way to improve the Iranian economy or relations with foreign countries.[19] Jalili criticized Pezeshkian for placing too much of the blame on the Iranian government for the failure of JCPOA and not enough on the other parties involved.[20]
A senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is attempting to publicly discourage US support for a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon. Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairperson and Supreme Leader Foreign Affairs Advisor Kamal Kharrazi stressed Iran's support for Hezbollah in the event of an Israeli military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon during an interview with the Financial Times on July 2.[21] The fact that Kharrazi gave this interview to this outlet suggests his primary audience is the West, including the United States. Kharrazi said that Iran was “not interested” in participating in a regional war and stressed the need for the United States to discourage Israel from launching an operation against Hezbollah. Kharrazi noted that Iran and the Axis of Resistance would have “no choice” but to use “all means” to support Hezbollah in the event of an Israeli military offensive into southern Lebanon. Kharrazi’s comments follow statements from several Iranian officials boasting about Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s ability to destroy Israel in recent days. IRGC Air Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh warned that Iran is ”awaiting an opportunity for the True Promise II Operation” during a speech on July 1.[22] The first True Promise Operation was the Iranian drone and missile attack targeting Israel on April 13.[23] Acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani separately told Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in a phone call on July 1 that Hezbollah is ”fully prepared” to resist any Israeli threats into Lebanon.”[24]
Kharrazi separately reiterated in his interview with the Financial Times that Iran was open to pursuing nuclear weaponization if it faced ”an existential threat.” [25] Kharrazi made similar statements suggesting that Iran could pursue a nuclear weapon in May 2024.[26] Kharrazi’s statements also coincide with normalized discussions about Iran’s ability to procure nuclear weapons among Iranian officials and evidence that Iran has expanded its nuclear program in recent weeks, suggesting a broader policy shift in Tehran.[27]
Key Takeaways:
- Iran: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the runoff presidential elections on July 2. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must determine if he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian maintains his lead over Jalili. Khamenei would risk further deteriorating regime legitimacy and possibly kickstarting unrest if Pezeshkian garners increased support in the coming days and Khamenei decides to undermine Pezeshkian’s ability to win the election.
- Lebanon: A senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is attempting to publicly discourage US support for a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.
- Gaza Strip: Several current and former Israeli security officials told the New York Times that top Israeli generals disagree with political establishment’s war goals in the Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari implied on June 19 that the IDF thinks the Israeli prime minister’s goal of destroying Hamas is not an achievable goal and that those advocated the goal are ”misleading the Israeli people.”
- Yemen: The Houthis claimed on July 1 that it conducted four ballistic and cruise missile attacks targeting four commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean. CTP-ISW cannot verify that these attacks occurred.
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
The Houthis claimed on July 1 that it conducted four ballistic and cruise missile attacks targeting four commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean.[88] The Houthi movement claimed that it targeted the Liberia-flagged container ship MSC Unific, the Liberia-flagged tanker Delonix, the United Kingdom-flagged cargo ship Anvil Point, and the Malta-flagged tanker Lucky Sailor. The Houthis previously claimed an attack on the Delonix on June 28.[89] The Houthis said that the vessels belong to the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel. CTP-ISW cannot verify that the attacks occurred at the time of writing.
[1] https://x.com/Mostafa_Najafii/status/1808153277093089351
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-29-2024
[3] https://amwaj dot media/media-monitor/will-qalibaf-s-supporters-decide-outcome-of-iran-s-presidential-elections ; https://x.com/Nima_arya001/status/1808054273139159473
[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-29-2024
[5] https://x.com/mh_rahbari1/status/1808178222632214669 ; https://t dot co/I06D7j8Viz
[6] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[8] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[9] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[10] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[11] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[12] Iran Update, June 21, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
[13] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[14] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223;
https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/04/12/3115024
[15] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[16] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223;
https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202407010961
[17] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[18] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[19] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[20] https://nournews dot ir/fa/news/180223
[21] https://www.ft.com/content/64507ebb-bbb6-4c67-a954-b63e1aa49b77
[22] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[23] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[24] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-1-2024
[25] https://www.ft.com/content/64507ebb-bbb6-4c67-a954-b63e1aa49b77?accessToken=zwAGHEevv5jokc9kUH67u7ZMZ9OpVLY-GqSbdw.MEQCIBHZQ8oysood9eNrwcpA0-COILoXvT33Zl1MbGHAJk4UAiANt_u7pL8lGn8N77i4d78g2wroa5XLds0Er8kU1p6ZaA&sharetype=gift&token=23ce26c8-60af-481f-8d5d-af22a2f18ae4
[26] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-13-2024
[27] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-may-28-2024
[28] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/world/middleeast/israel-military-gaza-cease-fire.html
[29] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/world/middleeast/israel-military-gaza-cease-fire.html
[30] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/world/middleeast/israel-military-gaza-cease-fire.html
[31] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/51944
[32] https://www.jpost dot com/israel-hamas-war/article-806958; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-20-2024
[33] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1807094084017819897 ; https://isw.pub/IranUpdate062524
[34] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808102549959897111
[35] www.gov dot il/en/pages/spoke-publicity020724
[36] https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-07-02/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-set-to-wind-down-fighting-in-gaza-but-without-reaching-a-hostage-deal/00000190-6f9a-d0bf-a9fd-6ffa14f20000?lts=1719941707871
[37] https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-end-stage-hamas-gaza-intl-latam/index.html
[38] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035511010763033
[39] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035507743404293
[40] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035507743404293
[41] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2593 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18233
[42] https://t.me/sarayaps/18233
[43] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2593
[44] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1778408391410426074
[45] https://t.me/AymanGouda/6191 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2591 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2592 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2594 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18230 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18231 ; https://t.me/darebmojahden/4897 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2586 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18225
[46] https://news dot walla.co.il/item/3674488
[47] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/gaza-israel-netzarim-corridor-war-hamas/
[48] https://news dot walla.com.il/item/3674488
[49] https://news dot walla.com.il/item/3674488
[50] https://news dot walla.com.il/item/3674488
[51] https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-07-02/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-set-to-wind-down-fighting-in-gaza-but-without-reaching-a-hostage-deal/00000190-6f9a-d0bf-a9fd-6ffa14f20000?lts=1719941707871
[52] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035511010763033
[53] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035511010763033
[54] https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4631 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18227
[55] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808023652442558594
[56] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808023652442558594
[57] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1807792175859536181 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18215
[58] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808023655449825569
[59] https://t.me/hamza20300/263684 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263705 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263857
[60] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035495420506122
[61] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808035495420506122
[62] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2584 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2585 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6728 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18232
[63] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1808220107409391772
[64] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808187538118430958
[65] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1808220107409391772
[66] https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-07-02/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-set-to-wind-down-fighting-in-gaza-but-without-reaching-a-hostage-deal/00000190-6f9a-d0bf-a9fd-6ffa14f20000?lts=1719941707871 ; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israels-cutback-in-troops-in-gaza-wont-end-the-war-soon-70316580 ; https://www.middleeastmonitor
dot com/20240624-israel-defence-minister-discusses-3rd-phase-of-gaza-war-with-us-envoy/
[67] https://x.com/kann_news/status/1808033848946528479; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/security-officials-gaza-electric-work-critical-for-israeli-effort-against-hamas/
[68] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/security-officials-gaza-electric-work-critical-for-israeli-effort-against-hamas/_
[69] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808140518490100099 ; https://www.i24news dot tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-idf-launches-manhunt-after-terrorist-attack-in-west-bank ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6720 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6722 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808080708469923915 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808142843111780559 ; https://t.me/QudsN/429161 ; https://t.me/QudsN/429242 ; https://t.me/QudsN/429219 ; https://t.me/QudsN/429166 ; https://t.me/QudsN/429163 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808142858932609137 ; https://t.me/QudsN/429008 ; https://t.me/QudsN/428996
https://t.me/QudsN/428922 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263943 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263934 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263931 ;
[70] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808099625989030234 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808099649384747155 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808099653965210066
[71] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808099625989030234
[72] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6720 ;
[73] https://t.me/QudsN/429161 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263890 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/263890
[74] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808142843111780559
[75] https://www.i24news dot tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-idf-launches-manhunt-after-terrorist-attack-in-west-ban ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808140518490100099
[76] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808080708469923915 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808142843111780559 ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808140518490100099
[77] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1807860295534366728 ; https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-808568; https://www.i24news dot tv/en/news/israel-at-war/artc-idf-announces-death-of-sergeant-first-class-res-yehuda-geto-in-operation-in-the-west-bank
[78] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/soldier-killed-16-injured-by-roadside-bombs-during-operation-in-west-banks-jenin/; https://t.me/QudsN/426929; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/world/middleeast/israel-jenin-soldier-killed-west-bank-raid.html
[79] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1808105702109360459; https://t.me/mmirleb/5222; https://t.me/mmirleb/5220
[80] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808152969013051519; https://t.me/mmirleb/5222
[81] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1808152944044310699; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808152969013051519
[82] https://www dot idf.il/212930
[83] https://www dot idf.il/212930; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808123367679029545
[84] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808123367679029545; https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/03/israel-bulks-northern-defense-with-new-mountain-brigade-amid-ongoing-hezbollah-threat.php
[85] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1808123367679029545
[86] www.president dot ir/fa/152603
[87] www.president dot ir/fa/152603 ; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-china/iran-china-sign-25-year-cooperation-agreement-idUSKBN2BJ0AD/
[88] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1807854161771249807
[89] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1806776217367953718
[90] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1808128641412247875