Ashka Jhaveri, Kathryn Tyson, Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Katherine Wells, and Brian Carter
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is continuing to struggle to consolidate support among Iranian youth ahead of the June 28 election. Pezeshkian promoted reformist ideals such as increased international engagement and freedom of thought during a meeting with Esfahan University students on June 19.[11] This meeting marked Pezeshkian’s second meeting with university students—a key voter demographic—since June 16.[12] Pezeshkian called on Iranian students to vote in the upcoming election, warning that boycotting the election could lead to greater restrictions and repression.[13] A Esfahan University student accused Pezeshkian of participating in the election to increase voter turnout and claimed that 90 percent of Iranian youth intend to boycott the election.[14] The student added that many Iranian youth do not care who becomes president because they oppose the regime as a whole.[15] Another Esfahan University student questioned Pezeshkian’s ability to challenge mandatory hijab enforcement.[16] These statements follow a similar statement by Sharif University students on June 16 that questioned the impact of the Iranian president on regime decision-making and called on Pezeshkian to withdraw from the election if he cannot guarantee meaningful change.[17]
Key Takeaways:
- Rafah: Hamas is preserving its forces in Rafah rather than engaging the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), likely because Hamas does not believe Israel’s Rafah operation will be decisive. Hamas’ Rafah Brigade would presumably become decisively engaged with Israeli forces if Hamas believed the Rafah operation would destroy Hamas’ military organization.
- Gaza Strip: An IDF commander said that the IDF determines if a Hamas battalion is “dismantled” by assessing whether the IDF has destroyed tunnel systems.
- Iranian Presidential Election: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is continuing to struggle to consolidate support among Iranian youth ahead of the June 28 election.
- Northern Israeli Border: The IDF on June 18 approved operational plans for a possible military offensive into Lebanon. The Israeli government has not approved an operation into Lebanon.
- Hezbollah: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to strike against Israel’s economy and civilian positions in the event of a war. Nasrallah suggested that Hezbollah has internalized some lessons derived from the April 13 Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel.
- Iranian Nuclear Program: Iran notified the IAEA that it will install 1,400 new centrifuges at Fordow, which has the capacity to produce nearly 320 pounds of weapons-grade uranium within one month of being installed.
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
The IDF likely conducted airstrikes targeting two Syrian Arab Army (SAA) sites in Daraa and Quneitra provinces, Syria, on June 19, in retaliation for the SAA cooperating with Lebanese Hezbollah. The Syrian Defense Ministry claimed that Israel conducted an airstrike targeting two SAA sites near Quneitra and Daraa in southern Syria, killing one SAA officer.[65] Syrian sources reported that Hezbollah uses the targeted sites as reconnaissance and observation points to observe the Israel-controlled Golan Heights.[66] The IDF dropped leaflets over Syrian villages in Quneitra after the airstrike warning the SAA against engaging in intelligence cooperation with Hezbollah and threatening further action if Hezbollah continues to operate at SAA sites.[67] The leaflets included a map identifying two SAA sites—Tel Ahmar and Hanout—that host concentrations of Hezbollah fighters and that the IDF has previously targeted multiple times.[68] The IDF stated in 2020 that the SAA’s 1st Corps, which is responsible for areas of southern Syria near the Golan Heights, is closely affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah.[69]
Acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammad bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim al Thani in Doha on June 19 to discuss the Israel-Hamas war.[70] Iranian media has not published any readouts of their meeting at the time of this writing. Qatar has been one of two major Arab mediators between Israel and Hamas. Egypt is the other mediator.
Reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian surpassed hardline candidates Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili in a recent poll.[71] A former Iranian state media official published the poll following the June 17 presidential debate. Twenty-eight percent of survey respondents expressed support for Pezeshkian, while 26 and 24 percent expressed support for Ghalibaf and Jalili, respectively. Google searches for Pezeshkian also increased following the June 17 debate.[72]
The bulk cargo carrier M/V Tutor sank in the Red Sea on June 18, marking the second vessel that the Houthi movement has sunk since the beginning of its attack campaign targeting international shipping in November 2023.[73] The Houthis launched a remote-controlled, one-way attack naval surface drone targeting the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned Tutor on June 12.[74] The Houthis later launched a ballistic missile at the vessel.[75] The impacts flooded the engine room, and the US Navy airlifted the crew from the vessel on June 15.[76] The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that the Tutor sank approximately 67 nautical miles southwest of Hudaydah, Yemen, on June 18.[77] Philippine government officials said that one Philippine crewmember remains missing.[78] A British maritime security firm separately reported that one crewmember died in the attack.[79] It is unclear if these two crewmembers are separate individuals. The Tutor is the second vessel the Houthis have sunk since November 2023. The Houthis previously struck the UK-owned bulk carrier Rubymar with ballistic missiles in the Bab al Mandab Strait in February 2024, causing the vessel to sink.[80]
The Houthis’ attack on the Tutor also marked the first time the Houthis have used an explosive-laden uncrewed surface vessel (USV) to attack a commercial vessel. Crewmembers described the USV as a long white-hulled 5–7-meter vessel manned with two dummies that resembled a Yemeni fishing boat.[81] The Houthis have used dummies in previous attempted attacks to draw fire while a second nearby skiff directed the USV.[82] The Houthi movement will likely use its success in damaging the Tutor to inform how it will employ USVs against commercial targets in the Red Sea in the future.
Reuters reported on June 19 that traumatized seafarers are refusing to sail in the Red Sea as a result of Houthi attacks, adding to a growing shortage of seafarers and officers.[83] Reuters interviewed over 15 crew members and shipping industry officials who stated that seafarers are hesitant to sail through the Red Sea due to constant Houthi attacks.[84] The International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) requested in March 2024 to expand the Warlike Operations Area (WOA) in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to reflect the danger that Houthi attacks pose on seafarers.[85] The WOA currently extends from the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden across the Eritrea coast, including the Bab al Mandeb Strait.[86] An ITF agreement grants nearly 360,000 seafarers the contractual right to refuse to sail in designated war zones. Reuters reported that many shipping companies and shipowners have decided not to sail through the Red Sea, impacting costs and time as companies choose to sail the longer and more expensive route around Africa instead.[87] The Houthis have repeatedly expressed their objective of disrupting international shipping through the Red Sea as a part of the Iranian-led effort to impose an unofficial blockade on Israel. [88]
US CENTCOM destroyed eight Houthi drones in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on June 18.[89] Houthi media claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom conducted three airstrikes targeting the Taif area, al Durayhimi District, south of Hudaydah.[90] CENTCOM also reported that partner forces destroyed one Houthi drone over the Gulf of Aden.[91]
[1] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1803323374636085733
[2] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1803323374636085733; https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-rafah-idf-focuses-on-tunnels-with-aim-of-destroying-hamas-brigade-within-a-month/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
[3] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1803324048719380720
[4] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/in-rafah-idf-focuses-on-tunnels-with-aim-of-destroying-hamas-brigade-within-a-month/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter; https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1803323977688887497
[5] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/fate-of-gaza-cease-fire-talks-hangs-on-two-hard-liners-netanyahu-and-sinwar-66d20ff3?mod=article_inline; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-thinks-it-could-win-gaza-war-with-israel-6254a8c6
[6] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1803323454273262063
[7] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1795848320633462978
[8] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/in-rafah-idf-focuses-on-tunnels-with-aim-of-destroying-hamas-brigade-within-a-month/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
[9] https://amilburn.substack.com/p/why-the-idf-doesnt-clear-and-hold
[10] https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-representative-lebanon-ahmad-abd-al-hadi-if-we-could-go-back-time-we-would-carry-out
[11] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/03/30/3107053
[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-17-2024
[13] https://t dot co/P2DRNzi1d6
[14] https://x.com/apadanatel/status/1803488777119150216?s=46&t=1sf9TeAul0X5cDCMsI9AAg
[15] https://x.com/apadanatel/status/1803488777119150216?s=46&t=1sf9TeAul0X5cDCMsI9AAg
[16] https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1803422505329209522
[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-17-2024
[18] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1803130711601221669
[19] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-and-hezbollah-inch-toward-wider-war-e14b79aa?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[20] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-israel-prepared-strong-action-north-2024-06-05/; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/05/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/
[21] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-5-2024
[22] https://peacemaker.un.org/israellebanon-resolution1701
[23] https://t.me/QudsN/423001
[24] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/in-open-threat-hezbollah-publishes-drone-footage-of-sites-in-northern-israel/
[25] https://t.me/moriahdoron/11184
[26] https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1803137321098691017; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-wants-avoid-greater-war-along-lebanon-israel-border-envoy-says-2024-06-18/
[27] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/world/middleeast/biden-netanyahu-hezbollah-israel.html; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/top-biden-aide-in-israel-to-try-to-head-off-war-with-hezbollah/; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/in-beirut-us-envoy-urges-de-escalation-between-israel-hezbollah-achievable-urgent/
[28] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/in-beirut-us-envoy-urges-de-escalation-between-israel-hezbollah-achievable-urgent/
[29] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/head-lebanons-hezbollah-threatens-israel-cyprus-televised-address-2024-06-19/
[30] https://t.me/almanarnews/160422
[31] https://t.me/almanarnews/160410
[32] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1800196300777861139; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-june-10-2024; https://t.me/moriahdoron/10699
[33] https://t.me/almanarnews/160423
[34] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/head-lebanons-hezbollah-threatens-israel-cyprus-televised-address-2024-06-19/
[35] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/head-lebanons-hezbollah-threatens-israel-cyprus-televised-address-2024-06-19/
[36] https://t.me/almanarnews/160424
[37] https://www.aei.org/articles/how-iran-plans-to-destroy-israel/
[38] https://t.me/almanarnews/160423
[39] https://www.aei.org/articles/how-iran-plans-to-destroy-israel/; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-3-2024
[40] https://www.aei.org/articles/how-iran-plans-to-destroy-israel/; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-6-2024
[41] https://t.me/QudsN/423428
[42] https://t.me/QudsN/423428
[43] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/19/iran-nuclear-enrichment-fordow/
[44] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-expanding-enrichment-capacity-after-iaea-resolution-diplomats-say-2024-06-12/
[45] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2502; https://t.me/sarayaps/18131; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6645
[46] https://www.idf dot il/209889
[47] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4312; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4313
[48] https://x.com/netanyahu/status/1803064164539081120
[49] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-press-24/ ; https://x.com/netanyahu/status/1803064164539081120
[50] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/06/18/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-63/
[51] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/06/18/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-63/
[52] https://www.axios.com/2024/06/19/netanyahu-video-biden-cancels-iran-meeting
[53] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/us/politics/gaza-pier-israel-aid.html
[54] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/us/politics/gaza-pier-israel-aid.html
[55] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1801724619843313842
[56] https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3811500/gaza-pier-expected-to-reopen-this-week/
[57] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/us/politics/gaza-pier-israel-aid.html
[58] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1791351088597086672
[59] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2503 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1803276240012341467 ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1803265041715569081
[60] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1753318412317511856
[61] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4311
[62] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6642; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/52108; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1345
[63] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1345
[64] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1803135429635416406; https://t.me/mmirleb/4981; https://t.me/mmirleb/4984; https://t.me/mmirleb/4988; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1803327723948896296; https://t.me/mmirleb/4993; https://t.me/mmirleb/4995; https://t.me/mmirleb/5001; https://t.me/mmirleb/5003; https://t.me/mmirleb/5005
[65] https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0fPQZ2ZY44tS1NuEYdDm6AbZJkVMiAM5Nh3XacLhwRBipWgPKWcmbBFDXNGMPqLWql; https://x.com/SAMSyria0/status/1803393334230004214; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1803330704043909325
[66] https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2024/06/19/11439; https://x.com/nourabohsn/status/1803370790512926814
[67] https://t.me/moriahdoron/11207
[68] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1767624078511260086; https://www.enabbaladi dot net/archives/638647; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-target-sites-belonging-to-hezbollah-in-southern-syria-then-drops-flyers/
[69] https://www.jpost dot com/arab-israeli-conflict/syria-makes-command-changes-to-1st-corps-following-israeli-threats-651949
[70] https://mfa dot ir/portal/NewsView/748114
https://x.com/IranNuances/status/1803457639537344920
[71] https://x.com/Entekhab_News/status/1803402962649141700
[72] https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=IR&q=%D9%BE%D8%B2%D8%B4%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86,%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81
[73] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1803133861477445811; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/salvage-firm-confirms-sinking-greek-owned-tutor-struck-by-houthis-2024-06-19/
[74] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1800934064611877236
[75] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1803133861477445811; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/world/middleeast/sailors-us-navy-houthi-attack.html; https://x.com/army21ye/status/1802050184874242108
[76] https://www.dvidshub.net/news/474096/us-navy-rescues-crew-vessel-struck-houthis?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0CFNG5El19egeDeneHH1Xw_smPOxGVVxPpA5tmpipuVEfPZXIdyBbM6TQ_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/world/middleeast/sailors-us-navy-houthi-attack.html; https://x.com/army21ye/status/1802050184874242108
[77] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1803133861477445811
[78] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/world/middleeast/sailors-us-navy-houthi-attack.html; https://x.com/army21ye/status/1802050184874242108
[79]
https://ambrey.com/app/uploads/2024/06/AMBREY-THREAT-CIRCULAR_FIRST-CONFIRMED-IMPACT-OF-RC-WBIED-SINCE-NOVEMBER-2023.pdf
[80] https://www.reuters.com/world/freighter-rubymar-has-sunk-red-sea-yemen-internationally-recognised-government-2024-03-02/
[81] https://ambrey.com/app/uploads/2024/06/AMBREY-THREAT-CIRCULAR_FIRST-CONFIRMED-IMPACT-OF-RC-WBIED-SINCE-NOVEMBER-2023.pdf; https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1802523101806186762; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/world/middleeast/sailors-us-navy-houthi-attack.html
[82] https://ambrey.com/app/uploads/2024/06/AMBREY-THREAT-CIRCULAR_FIRST-CONFIRMED-IMPACT-OF-RC-WBIED-SINCE-NOVEMBER-2023.pdf
[83] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trauma-red-sea-attacks-adds-seafarer-shortage-2024-06-19/
[84] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trauma-red-sea-attacks-adds-seafarer-shortage-2024-06-19/
[85] https://www.itfseafarers.org/en/news/seafarers-lives-matter
[86] https://www.itfseafarers.org/en/news/seafarers-lives-matter
[87] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trauma-red-sea-attacks-adds-seafarer-shortage-2024-06-19/
[88] https://saba dot ye/ar/news3326087.htm;
https://www.iswresearch.org/2023/12/iran-update-december-23-2023.html;
https://www.iswresearch.org/2024/03/iran-update-march-12-2024.html
[89] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1803185671000990088
[90] https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1803413291617624200; https://www.saba dot ye/ar/news3341418.htm
[91] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1803185671000990088