By: Brandon Wallace
ISW is assessing the ongoing unrest and its effects on political-security dynamics in Iraq. The Iraq Situation Report (SITREP) map series summarizes key events and likely developments to come. The following set of SITREP maps covers the period January 23 - February 6, 2020.
Iraq Situation Report: January 23 - 27, 2020
Key Takeaway: Nationalist Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
caused a new fracture in his movement by withdrawing support for popular
protests, leading some Sadrists to participate in a new violent crackdown
against protesters. Others defied Sadr’s guidance and continued to participate
in demonstrations. Sadr’s reversal is a major boon for the effort by Iran’s
proxies to crush the protest movement violently but may have the unintended
effect of further inflaming protests by alienating Sadrists who perceive his
action as a betrayal.
Iraq Situation Report: January 28 - 30, 2020
Key Takeaway: President Barham Salih channeled public pressure to set a three-day ultimatum for the Iraqi Parliament to agree to a new prime minister (PM). According to some reports, former Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki vetoed a decision by Nationalist Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iranian proxy leader Hadi al-Ameri to support former communications minister Muhammad Taqfiq Allawi. President Salih’s deadline expires on February 1.
Iraq Situation Report: January 31 - February 3, 2020
Key Takeaway: Iraq’s major political parties agreed on a
new prime minister. President Barham Salih has officially asked former
communications minister Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi to form a government, which
requires Allawi to submit a new Council of Ministers for an absolute majority
vote in the Iraqi Parliament. Some
protesters in Baghdad demonstrated against Allawi. In response, nationalist
Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr turned on the protest movement again calling for
his supporters to assist security forces and punish demonstrators, despite
having used its pressure to help reach a PM designation. This time, Sadr
ordered his supporters to participate in forcibly suppressing protests against
the new PM.
Iraq Situation Report: February 4 - 6, 2020
Key Takeaway: Nationalist Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is
in a violent escalation cycle with Iraq’s popular protest movement. Protesters
have begun to fight back in response to renewed efforts by Sadr’s supporters,
upon his instruction, to crush the protest movement. The conflict increasingly
pits Sadr’s traditional support base against the younger demonstrators who make
up the bulk of the demonstration movement. Further mobilization could create
the conditions for large scale violence.