By ISW Research Team
Key Takeaway: U.S. President Donald
Trump’s recent decision
to keep a residual force of at least 400 troops in Syria prevents the immediate
takeover of valuable natural resources and infrastructure in Eastern Syria by
Iran, Assad, and Russia. These actors nonetheless still have options that could
lead to the defeat or expulsion of U.S. forces. The residual U.S. forces will
operate at Al-Tanf on the Syrian-Jordanian Border as well as in Northern and
Eastern Syria across the Euphrates River. The garrison at Al-Tanf is relatively
defensible with secure supply lines to Jordan as well as a limited tactical
requirement to defend the base and a surrounding fifty-five kilometer exclusion
zone, which includes the Rukban IDP Camp. The U.S. is significantly more vulnerable
east of the Euphrates River. Iran, Assad, and Russia are building up forces
west of the Euphrates River and using outreach to local tribes to gain
footholds on its eastern bank. Even a limited drawdown by the U.S. will create
security gaps east of the Euphrates River that could be exploited by Iran,
Assad, and Russia.
Map Methodology: This graphic depicts
the disposition of both adversary and partnered forces deployed at key
infrastructure locations and urban centers in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq. Position
locations are based on information available in open sources reviewed by the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The list of locations and forces depicted
on this graphic is not exhaustive but rather meant to show the presence of
forces at assessed locations of vital strategic value or likely escalation. It
also does not provide an assessment of the size of the deployed forces or their
integration into wider command-and-control structures. The graphic does not
depict the specific deployment locations of U.S.-Led Anti-ISIS Coalition forces
beyond the garrison at Al-Tanf. ISW will
continue to update this dataset and publish updates as necessary. U.S. and
allied government readers may contact ISW to request more details on the
specific units and forces represented generally on this graphic.
