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Monday, March 18, 2019

Russia in Review: March 1 - March 18, 2019

Russia in Review is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them. Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the ISW mailing list.

Reporting Period: March 1 - March 18, 2019

AuthorsNataliya Bugayova, Darina Regio and Andrea Snyder with Michaela Walker

Key Takeaway: The Kremlin is tightening its domestic control over the information space through new censorship laws that establish unprecedented oversight over the media, stifling the political opposition and further limiting freedom of expression in Russia. The Kremlin also continues to shape political conditions in Ukraine in the lead-up to the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Election on March 31. The Kremlin and opponents of incumbent Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko are setting conditions to challenge the legitimacy of the election and potentially instigate violence if Poroshenko wins reelection.

The Kremlin is tightening its domestic control through new censorship laws that further limit freedom of expression in Russia. The Russian Parliament approved two bills prohibiting online insults against the government and the dissemination of “inaccurate information” in the media on March 13.[1] Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely soon sign the bills into law. The first measure enables the Russian Federal Communication Supervision Service (Roskomnadzor) to demand the removal of so-called “fake” news within twenty-four hours from registered entities and immediately remove such content from unregistered websites. It also authorizes fines for such content ranging up to 500,000 rubles (roughly $8,000). The law does not specify a mechanism for identifying “fake” news, granting the government broad latitude for arbitrary censorship. The second measures prohibits online insults against the government and state symbols, authorizing jail sentences up to fifteen days and fines up to 200,000 rubles (roughly $3,000).[2] The Presidential Human Rights Council of Russia and numerous human rights advocates have urged Putin to reject the bills, arguing that the laws empower government officials to review materials “under far-fetched and arbitrary pretexts” that violate protections for freedom of expression under Article 29 of the Russian Constitution.[3] The laws (if adopted) will expand the censorship powers and state control over the information space enjoyed by the Kremlin. The Russian Parliament has also considered other pieces of legislation to constrain the information space in Russia, including a “sovereign internet” bill that would require all Internet providers in Russia to install technical equipment provided by Roskomnadzor and a newly-adopted law that prohibits military personnel from posting any information about their military rank, geographic location, or other operational details online.[4] These bills in conjunction are a continuation of an extensive campaign by the Kremlin to curb any political disagreement with its policies, secure the regime’s political survival, and limit foreign interference in Russia.

The Kremlin and other opponents of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko are setting conditions to question the legitimacy of the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Election if Poroshenko wins reelection. The Kremlin and its political allies in Ukraine as well as other opponents of incumbent Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko are setting conditions to contest the legitimacy of the upcoming 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Election on March 31. The Kremlin is waging an information campaign against Poroshenko, emphasizing his high negative ratings and alleged involvement in a major money-laundering scheme.[5] Russia-backed media has exclusively focused on the criminal allegations against Poroshenko even though independent sources have also implicated several of his main political rivals in serious electoral manipulation and campaign finance violations.[6] Russian Federation Council Member Sergey Tsekov warned that Russia might not recognize the next President of Ukraine after the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry banned election observers from Russia.[7] Pro-Russian Opposition Platform - For Life Chairman Viktor Medvedchuk similarly stated that “corruption scandals” relating to the election could lead to a “third Maidan” in reference to the Orange Revolution in 2004 and Euromaidan Revolution in 2014.[8] Several other Russia-leaning candidates including Oleksandr Vilkul have also accused Poroshenko of being unwilling or unable to hold transparent elections.[9] Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has capitalized on a similar narrative to discredit Poroshenko based on the swirling corruption accusations as well as a recent attempt to launch impeachment proceedings against him in the Ukrainian Parliament.[10]

The Kremlin will likely instigate violence in Ukraine if Poroshenko wins the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Elections. ISW has assessed that Poroshenko is the least-preferred candidate of the Kremlin. The Kremlin will likely attempt to leverage local players to fuel discontent and undermine the election results in the event of a victory by Poroshenko. The Kremlin may attempt to leverage the activities of the far-right Ukrainian National Corps Party, a nationalist group that opposes the accession of Ukraine to the EU and NATO as well as involvement by Russia in Ukraine. The National Corps Party announced on March 6 that its militant National Militia would act as “observers” at polling stations and use force if they detected election fraud.[11] National Militia members have already incited violence in Kyiv and Cherkasy in Central Ukraine, where they injured at least twenty-two police officers during protests against Poroshenko.[12] ISW has not directly linked the National Militia to the Kremlin, but its actions align with Russia’s intent to discredit Poroshenko, undermine the state monopoly on the use of force, and sow doubt about the legitimacy of the elections. The National Militias is at minimum vulnerable to the infiltration and influence from the Kremlin. ISW has previously assessed that Russia leverages nationalist groups to advance its objectives in Ukraine. The Kremlin is likely to exploit actors such as the National Militia to instigate clashes after an election victory by Poroshenko to undermine the political environment in Kyiv and build support for candidates amenable to the Kremlin in the upcoming 2019 Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections in October. The Kremlin could use its political proxies including favorable political parties to call the legitimacy of the elections into question and create a pretense for more political violence. The U.S. should condemn both election interference by Russia in Ukraine as well as all actors who threaten violence during or after the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Elections. The U.S. should call on all parties to respect the outcome of the elections and stress the need for peace and calm regardless of the results.

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[1] “N 606593-7,” Legislation Council of the Russian Federation, March 15, 2019, http://sozd.duma.gov(.)ru/bill/606593-7; “N 606595-7,” Legislation Council of the Russian Federation, March 15, 2019, http://sozd.duma.gov(.)ru/bill/606595-7.
[2] “Russia Passes Legislation Banning ‘Disrespect’ of Authorities and ‘Fake News’,” The Moscow Times, March 7, 2019, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/07/russia-passes-legislation-banning-disrespect-of-authorities-and-fake-news-a64742.
[3] [“More Than a Hundred Journalists and Human Rights Defenders Opposed the Laws of Fake News and Insulting The Authorities on the Internet,”] Novaya Gazeta, March 12, 2019, https://www.novayagazeta(.)ru/news/2019/03/12/149945-bolee-sta-zhurnalistov-i-pravozaschitnikov-vystupilo-protiv-zakonov-o-feyk-nyus-i-oskorblenii-vlasti-v-internete.
[4] “N 608767-7,” Legislation Council of the Russian Federation, March 18, 2019, http://sozd.duma.gov(.)ru/bill/608767-7; [“Sovereign Internet in Russia Approved by the Duma in the First Reading,”] BBC, February 12, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-47199496; [“Protection from Surveillance,”] Rossiyskaya Gazeta, March 6, 2019, https://rg(.)ru/2019/03/06/voennym-zapretili-razglashat-sluzhebnuiu-informaciiu-v-socsetiah.html.
[5] [“Three Months Before the Election: Poroshenko - First in the Anti-Rating of Presidential Candidates,”] Strana, December 26, 2018, https://strana(.)ua/news/178483-rejtinh-poroshenko-upal-do-minimuma-pervyj-v-antirejtinhe-kandidatov-na-post-prezidenta.html; Oksana Grytsenko and Oleg Sukhov, “Allegations of Vote Buying Fly Before March 31 Contest,” Kyiv Post, March 1, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/allegations-of-vote-buying-fly-before-march-31-contest.html; BIHUS Info, [“Friends of the President Are Stealing from Defense (Secret Correspondence, pg.1-2) /// Our Money No. 257 - 258,”] YouTube, February 25, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGTf2nUyxfw; Lecya Ivanova, “Army. Friends. Dough. Part 1. (Without the Correspondence),” Bihus, February 28, 2019, https://bihus(.)info/army-friends-dough-part-1-without-correspondence.
[6] Oksana Grytsenko and Oleg Sukhov, “Allegations of Vote Buying Fly Before March 31 Contest,” Kyiv Post, March 1, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/allegations-of-vote-buying-fly-before-march-31-contest.html; Denys Krasnikov, “SBU Says it Uncovered Network that Illegally Campaigned for Presidential Candidate,” Kyiv Post, February 21, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/sbu-investigates-network-that-illegally-campaigned-for-presidential-candidate-allegedly-tymoshenko.html.; Oleksiy Sorokin, “Yuriy Tymoshenko Allegedly Offered Bribe to Quit Presidential Race,” Kyiv Post, March 7, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/yulia-tymoshenkos-namesake-allegedly-offered-bribe-to-quit-presidential-race.html.
[7] “Ukraine Refuses to Register Russian Observers for Presidential Elections,” UA Wire, January 10, 2019, https://www.uawire(.)org/ukraine-refused-to-register-russian-observers-in-the-elections; [“Russia Will Seek Admission of Its Observers to the Ukrainian Elections – Karasin,”] Ukraina, March 12, 2019, https://ukraina(.)ru/news/20190312/1022960086.html.
[8] [“Medvedchuk Warned that Ukraine May Not Survive the Third ‘Maidan’,”] TASS, March 14, 2019, https://tass(.)ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/6217422.
[9] Yevchen Muraev, [“The Fact That the Falsifications Were Prepared,”] Facebook, March 11, 2019, https://www.facebook.com/e.murayev/videos/vb.131683931026816/258255811780854; Oleksandr Vilkul, [“Do You Think the Government Will Falsify the Elections?”] Facebook, March 4, 2019, https://www.facebook.com/OleksandrVilkul/photos/a.486363971455755/2176899169068885; Oleksandr Vilkul, [“Robbery of the Army,”] Facebook, February 26, 2019, https://www.facebook.com/OleksandrVilkul/photos/a.486363971455755/2167631003329035.
[10] Illia Ponomarenko, “Poroshenko Fires Hladkovskiy Amid Swirling Defense Corruption Scandal,” Kyiv Post, March 4, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/poroshenko-dismisses-hladkovkskiy-amid-swirling-defense-corruption-scandal.html; [“We Are Initiating the Impeachment Process of President Poroshenko,”] Yulia Tymoshenko, February 26, 2019, https://www.tymoshenko(.)ua/news/pochynayemo-protseduru-impichmentu-prezydentu-poroshenku/; [“Yulia Tymoshenko Met with Higuom Mingarelli,”] Yulia Tymoshenko, March 14, 2019, https://www.tymoshenko(.)ua/news/yuliya-tymoshenko-zustrilasya-iz-hyugom-mingarelli; Oksana Grytsenko and Oleg Sukhov, “Allegations of Vote Buying Fly Before March 31 Contest,” Kyiv Post, March 1, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/allegations-of-vote-buying-fly-before-march-31-contest.html; BIHUS Info, [“Friends of the President Are Stealing from Defense (Secret Correspondence, pg.1-2) /// Our Money No. 257 - 258,”] YouTube, February 25, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGTf2nUyxfw; Lecya Ivanova, “Army. Friends. Dough. Part 1. (Without the Correspondence),” Bihus, February 28, 2019, https://bihus(.)info/army-friends-dough-part-1-without-correspondence; “Tymoshenko Accuses Parliament’s Leadership of Blocking Presidential Impeachment,” RFE/RL, February 28, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/tymoshenko-accuses-parliament-s-leadership-of-blocking-presidential-impeachment/29796009.html.
[11] “National Squads Militia Says Ready to ‘Use Force’ to Fight Fraud at Polling Stations,” UNIAN, March 6, 2019, https://www.unian(.)info/politics/10469865-national-squads-militia-says-ready-to-use-force-to-fight-fraud-at-polling-stations.html.
[12] Ibid.; “Police, Far-Right Protesters Clash in Kyiv, Cherkasy,” RFE/RL, March 9, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kyiv-clashes-police-far-right-protesters-military-corruption-scandal/29812369.html.