By: Jennifer Cafarella and Caitlin Forrest with Charles Aubin
Key Takeaway: Afghanistan remains
a safe haven for terrorist plots against the U.S. homeland. The Islamic State
of Iraq and al Sham’s (ISIS) affiliate in Afghanistan and an American ISIS
member in Pakistan coordinated an attack attempt in the U.S. in early 2016. ISIS
seized at least one district in northwestern Afghanistan in early November, and
is assembling new foreign fighter units. ISIS will
use this safe haven to conduct new attacks abroad.
ISIS is using safe haven in Afghanistan and Pakistan to plan
attacks in the U.S. ISIS operatives in Pakistan, Canada, and the Philippines planned a major coordinated
attack against New York City in early 2016, according to the U.S. Justice Department. The cell
planned to attack civilians in Times Square using firearms
and suicide vests made using the signature ISIS explosive TATP. A U.S. citizen and
ISIS operative in Pakistan told an undercover FBI asset that he received
authorization from ISIS’s “Wilayat Khorasan” in Afghanistan for the attack. American,
Canadian, Pakistani, and Philippine authorities dismantled the cell after the
ISIS operative in Canada attempted to cross into the U.S. The cell’s geographic
disposition indicates ISIS shifted more of its external operations activity out
of Syria and Iraq. ISIS previously exported an external operations cell to
Libya in December 2015, which is supporting ISIS’s attack campaign
in Europe.
ISIS elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan may have already
coordinated additional attack plots in the U.S. Another would-be attacker in
the U.S., Mahin Khan, contacted a
member of the Pakistani Taliban in order to receive support for an attack on behalf of ISIS, according to
the FBI. Federal
authorities arrested Khan in July 2016. It is possible he actually contacted
the ISIS faction that split from the
Pakistani Taliban in October 2014. The Pakistani Taliban has previously
attempted to conduct
attacks in
the U.S., including a foiled 2010 car
bombing in
New York City.
ISIS is organizing new foreign fighter units in northern Afghanistan. Local
officials and residents in Jowzjan Province claimed
in early
November that ISIS foreign fighters from France, Sudan, Chechnya, Uzbekistan,
and Tajikistan are recruiting locals and training child suicide
bombers. ISIS likely began to recruit Taliban members in Jowzjan
in early 2015. ISIS’s growth in the province
accelerated after November 2015 when the Taliban kicked out Qari Hekmat, who
became a local ISIS commander. ISIS is also siphoning fighters from the pro-al
Qaeda Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). An IMU faction pledged allegiance to
ISIS in August 2015. The IMU founder’s son, Abdul Malik, moved to Jowzjan in
February 2017 with “hundreds” of
fighters and their families in order to seize control from the Taliban. The Institute for the
Study of War warned the same month
that ISIS was on track to create a logistical hub to receive and train foreign
fighters as the group lost ground in Iraq and Syria. ISIS achieved full freedom
of movement in the province in early November by defeating Taliban
forces,
including reinforcements likely
deployed from southern Afghanistan. ISIS also compelled the local government to
relocate all
rural offices to the provincial capital. ISIS exploited overstretched security
forces in the province and regional Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum’s exile
to Turkey. The growing presence of diverse foreign fighters indicates ISIS
seeks to create an external operations node for new waves of global attacks.
A global network of ISIS external operations nodes will pose new
challenges for the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition. U.S. special
operations forces are at risk of overstretch. ISIS is still planning
attacks
from Syria despite its loss of Raqqa. The U.S. has already increased anti-ISIS
operations in Yemen and Somalia to
keep pace with ISIS growth. ISIS is generating new global attack capability in Afghanistan
while regenerating lost capability in Libya, meanwhile. The
U.S. military cannot deploy enough personnel and resources to destroy every new
attack cell ISIS generates. The
U.S. must start to deny ISIS its non-military sources of
strength such as the perception in many Sunni communities that ISIS is a
“defender” of Sunni populations. American strategy thus far has instead appeared to
legitimize ISIS by aligning the U.S. with the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria,
Russia, and Iran. These forces are committing systematic abuses against Sunni
populations in Syria that likely amount to crimes against
humanity.
This violence drives recruits to ISIS and in part provides rationalization for
ISIS attacks against Western populations. An immediate, fundamental change in
America’s strategic approach to securing the homeland is necessary in order to
prevent the next Paris attack from happening here at home.
