By
Bradley Hanlon and Bryan Amoroso
Key
Takeaway: Russia is accelerating its efforts to subvert the Syrian political
process by establishing a new diplomatic framework that sets conditions to
expel the U.S. from Northern Syria. Russia announced its intent to host
delegates from all major opposition, ethnic, and tribal factions at a “Syrian
Congress on National Dialogue” in Sochi on November 18. Russia may exploit the
conference to broker a wider reconciliation deal between the Bashar al Assad
Regime and the Syrian Kurdish YPG under conditions that preclude long-term U.S.
influence in Syria.
Russia
will reportedly host a political conference called the “Syrian Congress on
National Dialogue” in Sochi on November 18. Russian media claims that the
conference will include up to 1,500 participants representing major political
and armed opposition groups, local councils, tribal gatherings, and various
factions of Syrian Kurds.[1]
The Russian Foreign Ministry published an official list of invitees that
includes the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its rival Kurdish
National Council (KNC); the exiled High Negotiations Committee (HNC) backed by
Saudi Arabia and the Bashar al Assad regime-tolerated Moscow and Cairo
Platforms; and armed anti-Assad opposition groups including the Southern Front.[2]
It remains unclear which if any of these groups will attend the conference,
although the public invitations are likely intended to signal inclusiveness.
Syrian Ambassador to the UN Bashar al-Jaafari also stressed the Assad regime’s willingness
to participate.[3]
Russia will reportedly use the venue to propose constitutional reforms, the
formation of a transitional government that retains Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, and new municipal, parliamentary, and presidential elections for
Syria by 2021, according to unidentified sources familiar with the conference.[4]
The
conference, if successful, will undermine or coopt international efforts to
reach a political settlement to the Syrian Civil War. Russia has used
alternative diplomatic venues - such as the trilateral Astana Talks with Turkey
and Iran - to capture and shape the UN Geneva Process. Russia uses these
measures to demonstrate its legitimacy as an international arbiter while
simultaneously ensuring a favorable political outcome that preserves its
interests in the Syrian Civil War. Russia could also use the conference to
broker a deal with the Syrian Kurds at the expense of the U.S. in Northern
Syria. Russia is reportedly prepared to offer federal status to the Syrian
Kurds in exchange for their wider reconciliation with the Assad Regime.[5] The Syrian Kurdish PYD has
previously been barred from participation in political negotiations at the
Geneva Talks at Turkey’s insistence. Russia reportedly excluded Turkey from
active participation in the Syrian Congress on National Dialogue - likely to
encourage meaningful engagement by the Syrian Kurds.[6] The
outcome of these negotiations could include an agreement that constrains or
ultimately expels the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition from Northern Syria.
Russia
has recently deepened its increased cooperation with the Syrian Kurdish PYD to
assert itself as a viable partner ahead of the Syrian Congress on National
Dialogue. The Russian Armed Forces reportedly assumed full control of the
Menagh Military Airbase north of Aleppo City on October 27 following a
withdrawal by the Syrian Kurdish YPG. Russia previously deployed military
personnel to Menagh Airbase and nearby Tel Rifaat on October 20 to preempt
military operations by Turkey against the majority-Kurdish Afrin Canton in
Western Aleppo Province.[7] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail
Bogdanov also met with officials from the Syrian Kurdish PYD in Qamishli in
Hasaka Province on October 18 to discuss Syria’s future political outcome.[8]
Russian Senator Ziad Sabsabi conducted a near-simultaneous visit to Qamishli in
coordination with the Russian Ministry of Defense to secure the release of
twenty-one Russian Chechens and Dagestanis from Afrin Canton.[9]
Russia has also mounted long-standing efforts to generate a unified bloc of
Syrian Kurds. Russian Gen. Alexander Dvornikov hosted a conference for representatives
from 24 Syrian Kurdish political parties - including the PYD and KNC - at the
Hmeymim Airbase on the Syrian Coast in December 2016.[10]
Russia nonetheless faces challenges from its partner in the Assad Regime. Assad
reportedly rejected calls to consider federalism and favorable constitutional
reforms for the Syrian Kurds by Russia in October 2016.[11] The
upcoming Syrian Congress on National Dialogue in Sochi will likely encounter
similar hurdles. Russia nonetheless stands to use its leadership of the
political process to further subvert the future influence of the U.S. in Syria.
[1]
https://ria(.)ru/syria/20171031/1507926606.html
[2]
http://www.mid(.)ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2927253
[3]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-jaafari/syrian-government-says-ready-to-take-part-in-moscow-backed-congress-idUSKBN1D02CX
[4]
http://www.rudaw.net/arabic/kurdistan/1910201715
[5] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/syria-federal-state-kurds-turkey-russia.html;
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/turkey-russia-mediates-between-kurds-and-assad.html;
http://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-russia-syria/russia-says-federal-model-is-possible-for-syria-in-future-idINKCN0W21TP
[6] http://www.shaam.org/news/syria-news/الخطة-الروسية-في-الوصول-للحل-السلمي-في-سوريا-والتحضيرات-لـ-مؤتمر-الشعوب-في-حميميم.html
[9] https://sputniknews(.)com/middleeast/201710221058441116-russia-syria-rescue-operation/; https://www.enabbaladi.net/archives/179105
[10] http://www.all4syria.info/Archive/371034
[11]http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/turkey-russia-mediates-between-kurds-and-assad.html
