by: Omer Kassim, the ISW Iraq Team, and Jennifer Cafarella
A collapse of the Iraqi Kurdish
Peshmerga under joint pressure from Iraq and Iran shortly after the
Kurdish independence referendum on September 25, 2017 empowers Iran
and could destabilize northern Iraq rather than unify the country. Iraqi
Kurdish Peshmerga forces withdrew from disputed areas across northern Iraq on
October 16th and 17th, 2017. A combined force of
Iraqi Security Forces and Iranian proxies gathered south of Kirkuk starting on
October 13th in order to compel Iraqi Kurdistan to relinquish
control of the oil-rich city. The combined ISF-proxy force moved in to secure
the city as well as nearby military bases and oil fields on October 16th after
the Peshmerga abandoned their positions. Peshmerga forces also withdrew from
areas in Ninewa, Salah al Din, and Diyala Provinces. The Iraqi Government and
Iran likely signaled their intent to use military force to compel the Peshmerga
withdrawals in those provinces, if necessary. The Kurdish retreat is a win for
both the central Iraqi government and Iran, whose proxies have seized new key
terrain and consolidated control over previously contested cities. Iran
has downplayed the role of its proxies in order to legitimize them as
instruments of the Iraqi state. Western media coverage and statements from US
officials have assisted Iran with this deception by denying the role of Iran’s
proxies in Kirkuk. Kurdish populations now under the control of the Iraqi
government and Iran's proxies may drive an insurgency, however. Civil unrest
against Iraqi forces and Iran's proxies began in Kirkuk and Khanaqin
on October 18th. Prime Minister Abadi ordered a handover of security in
Kirkuk to local police, and early reports indicate Iraqi forces and Iran's
proxies may have drawn back from Khanaqin in northern Diyala. It is unclear
whether these withdrawals will pacify the Kurdish population.
