By Emily Anagnostos and the ISW Iraq Team
Operations to retake Mosul have made minimal progress since the
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) announced an operational pause on October 25 in
order for the five axes approaching Mosul to re-sync before advances into the
city limits begin.
The northern and eastern axes are nearing Mosul’s city limits. The
northern axis continues to focus on regaining the towns of Batnaya and Tel
Kayyaf, north of Mosul, in order to position forces to breach Mosul’s northern
city limits. The Peshmerga entered the Christian town of Batnaya on October
25,
but are not assessed to be in control of the city. The Counter Terrorism
Service (CTS) is poised to breach Mosul's outskirts from both the east and
northeast but called for an operational
pause on October 25
in order to wait for the southern axis to advance such that the encirclement of
the city is evenly distributed.
The southern axis, however, has made limited progress during this
pause. Operation Inherent Resolve Commander Lt. Gen. Steve Townsend described this area of ISIS’s defense as a “very hard external crust,”
outside of Mosul’s hard core and a soft middle on October 26. The ISF has faced
resistance from ISIS’s suicide attacks and is limited by a shortage in
manpower. ISIS has also created a chemical barrier by igniting a sulfur
plant on fire located
near the confluence of the Tigris and Zab Rivers, north of Qayyarah, when they
withdrew from the plant on October 20. The toxic plume of smoke will continue
to halt forward movement until the sulfur fire is mitigated or MOPP suits are
delivered, though the additional layers of clothing will likely further slow
forward progress.
The ISF finally breached Shura’s city
limits, north of Qayyarah, on October 28, having encircled the city since
October 19. The ISF will need to break through ISIS’s external crust and
quickly make up progress towards Mosul, lest the axes grow out of sync. The
southern axis may require additional reinforcements as it will face more
attrition than the other axes due to its longer distance to travel towards
Mosul.
New players are entering the operation. One
thousand five hundred members of
the Turkish-backed Ninewa Guard Force, based out of Zaylkan, are assessed to be operating alongside the 16th
Iraqi Army Division around Tel Kayyaf. It is unclear if the group’s Turkish advisors are among
the forces or if they remain at their base in Zaylkan, where another 1,500
members remain in reserve. All major Iraqi parties, especially the Shi’a
militias, have rejected Turkey’s presence in northern Iraq; Turkish direct or
indirect participation in the Mosul operation could escalate tensions between
Turkey and Iraq. Shi’a militias have also stepped up their involvement in the Mosul operation and are
working to open a western axis towards Tel Afar from their current position alongside the
Federal Police near Qayyarah. Militia involvement could spark intra-Coalition
tensions, especially if Kurdish, Turkish, ISF, and militia forces converge in
an area with a proclivity for Sunni insurgency.
