By Emily Anagnostos and the ISW Iraq Team
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Peshmerga contested ISIS’s hold
over significant urban centers in Mosul’s environs from October 22-24, 2016. In
response, ISIS continued to launch suicide attacks against advancing security
forces and to attack far-flung areas in a diversionary tactic.
The 9th Iraqi Army Division completed
the recapture of Hamdaniya District, southeast of Mosul, on October 22. The ISF
had breached the district center on October 18 but faced tough ISIS resistance
to take full control of the city. The ISF continued its advance beyond
Hamdaniya, linking
up ISF areas of control across the Gwer-Khazar axis. Units from the Counter
Terrorism Service (CTS) advanced
from its position in Bartella, which it secured October 21. As of October 24, the
CTS is firmly in the urban terrain of Mosul’s outer limits and is positioning
itself to begin an offensive into Mosul’s eastern city limits.
Operations north of Qayyarah continued to focus on retaking Shura,
the former al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) hub which has been the center of the ISF’s
attention in the southern axis since operations launched on October 17. Units
from the Iraqi Army and Federal Police surrounded
the city by October 24 and will likely begin a push into the city center in the
coming days. Meanwhile, the ISF continued
its advance up the western bank of the Tigris River towards the next major
urban center, Hamman al-Alil. This southern axis will challenge the operational
objective to encircle Mosul as it is lagging behind the others axes, which are
relatively equidistant from Mosul’s city limits. The ISF’s inability to narrow
ISIS’s escape aperture to the west towards Syria will complicate efforts to
contain ISIS’s freedom to maneuver in northern Iraq. It could also result in
increased ISIS attacks on the ISF’s western flank and recaptured terrain to the
south.
The ISF and Peshmerga are contesting ISIS’s control north of Mosul.
The 16th Iraqi Army Division advanced
from its position
at the Mosul Dam towards Tel Kayyaf on October 22. This effort is matched by
the Peshmerga and CTS advancing from Tel Saqaf, north of Tel Kayyaf. The Peshmerga
and CTS also continued its offensive to encircle Bashiqa, northeast of Mosul.
The city is cut
off from Mosul but still under ISIS control. Coordination between the
Peshmerga and CTS on both axes will position the CTS directly on Mosul’s
northern and northeastern limits from where it can begin an assault into the
city, while the Peshmerga holds the city’s outskirts.
ISIS launched counteroffensives far from the frontlines around
Mosul in order to both demonstrate its continued capacity to launch deadly attacks
in Iraq despite losses in Ninewa and draw security forces away from the north. ISIS
launched a massive attack
on Rutba, in far western Anbar province, on October 23, forcing ISF units to
deploy to the area. ISIS also targeted Peshmerga
locations in Sinjar on October 24, the second time in a
week. The attacks in Sinjar could aim to disrupt refugee flows to a UN camp in
al-Hawl, Syria, while also ensuring that ISIS maintains an inroad, possibly by
hiding in the refugee flow, to Syria. Meanwhile, ISIS continued minor attacks
in Kirkuk City, following its large-scale counteroffensive
on October 21, which required
the Peshmerga to move units to the city. ISIS may further increase attacks in
order to prove its enduring strength in Iraq, including through large-scale
suicide attacks in Baghdad and the belts.
