By Sarah Crockett, Emily Anagnostos, and Caitlin Forrest
ISIS carried out explosive attacks in Baghdad and its
environs to undermine an increasingly fragile Iraqi government through April
and early May. The group exploited a security system both distracted by ongoing
political upheaval caused by a stalled reform and burdened with protecting
thousands of Shi’a pilgrims travelling to northern Baghdad for a major Shi’a
holiday. ISIS has generally used suicide vests (SVEST) in 2016 due to the ISF’s
increasing ability to spot and thwart its vehicle borne improvised explosive
devices (VBIED) and suicide VBIEDs (SVBIED).
ISIS last executed a VBIED attack on January 11. It since refrained
from VBIED and SVBIED attacks in favor of SVESTs due to the ISF’s increasing
ability to spot and destroy such attacks. The resurgence of successful VBIEDs
and SVBIEDs attacks suggests the weakening ability of the ISF to adequately and
consistently protect the greater Baghdad area. They also show ISIS reverting to
its core expertise as a terrorist organization as it loses its capability to
project force from its decreasing terrain. These explosive attacks will play a
major factor in the ongoing political dynamics in Baghdad and aggravate already
tense relations between the government and protesters if the government fails
to guarantee basic security in the city.
