By Patrick Martin
Key Take-Away: Iraq’s political crisis has intensified. Hundreds of
supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr stormed the Green Zone on April 30 and entered
the Council of Representatives (CoR) building. Sadr and Sadrist Trend leaders
have urged for a peaceful demonstration but have not ordered the demonstrators
to leave the area, indicating that the Green Zone may see an extended sit-in.
Violence is a possibility as the security forces attempt to secure Baghdad,
particularly as they are already stretched thin protecting thousands of Shi’a
pilgrims descending on Kadhimiyah neighborhood for the commemoration of the
death of the Imam al-Kadhim, a major Shi’a holiday. ISIS will likely attempt to
take advantage of the security breach by launching spectacular attacks against
demonstrators and pilgrims. There is a potential threat to U.S. bases and infrastructure,
though Sadr has ordered his followers not to approach any embassies. Iraq’s
government is now at its most unstable, as the CoR is physically inaccessible
to many members of government amid reports that Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi
and CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi were evacuated from the Green Zone.
[Above: Demonstrators flood the Constitution Hall room in the CoR building on April 30.]
The political crisis in Iraq is intensifying. Hundreds of
supporters of Sadrist Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr stormed the gates of the Green
Zone. They forced their way into the Council of Representatives (CoR) building
following the end of the scheduled CoR session. U.S. and international
facilities in Baghdad are at some increasing risk, and should the situation
escalate further the deteriorating security may ultimately affect some U.S.
forces and basing. The UN has closed its building in the Green Zone while the Baghdad
Operations Command and the U.S. Embassy have gone on alert.
The safety of Iraq’s political leadership is at risk. Security forces have also
evacuated
Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi from the Green
Zone, though the location to which they were evacuated is unclear. The Sadrists
have begun a sit-in within the parliament and are damaging the building’s
interior. At least one CoR member, Fadhila Bloc leader Ammar Tuamah, has been assaulted
by Sadrist demonstrators as he attempted to leave the area.
This is not the first time that Sadrist protesters have
physically challenged security forces near the Green Zone. On March 18, Sadrist protesters charged Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) at the Republican
Bridge en route the Green Zone, and the ISF removed the barrier to allow
them to advance apparently under the order of the Baghdad
Operations Command (BOC). The protesters did not, however, enter the Green
Zone itself. Sadr himself conducted a sit-in
himself thereafter in a tent in the Green Zone on March 27 as a continuation of
the protest movement to pressure the government to conduct a cabinet reshuffle,
though he ordered his supporters to remain outside of the Green Zone.
The April 30th riot and assault of the CoR building appears
to have been organic rather than planned. The Sadrist Trend’s leadership initially
demanded that all demonstrators immediately vacate
the CoR building, though they apparently later decided simply to order the
sit-in in the CoR building to be conducted in a peaceful manner, a sign that
the leadership may exploit the crisis. The supervisor of the Sadrist sit-in
movement had coordinated
with security forces for a peaceful demonstration the night before and was physically
overseeing the sit-in site in
front of the Green Zone when the demonstrators began storming it, suggesting
but not proving that Sadrist Trend leaders did not plan to enter the Green
Zone.
The violence erupted after the Council of Representatives
(CoR) met on April 30 to select new ministers as part of the cabinet reshuffle
process. Although the CoR had successfully voted in five new technocratic cabinet
ministers during the April 26 session, but the remainder of Abadi’s list has
met resistance. Political blocs, including the Sunni Etihad bloc and the
Kurdistan Alliance, clearly did not want to cede
control over certain cabinet seats, causing deadlock in the CoR session.
This prompted the members of al-Ahrar Bloc, the political wing of the Sadrist
Trend, to withdraw from the session. Sadr announced a freeze
of all of the Sadrist Trend’s political activity for two months, warning of the
possibility of a government collapse
if quotas and corruption persisted.
Indicators that the immediate crisis will de-escalate
include:
- Protesters cease destroying property
- Sadr orders protesters to depart the CoR or Green Zone
- Protesters depart the CoR building
- Protesters disperse ISF regains control over the Green Zone
If these conditions are not met, the likelihood of immediate
violence will continue. Indicators of
further escalation will include not only failure to meet those conditions, but
also:
- Sadr encouraging further protests;
- The reinforcement of Baghdad by security forces or militias
from outside;
- Further violence against the compounds of other political
leaders or the leaders themselves;
Violence against U.S. or international installations in
Baghdad.
If these conditions are not met, the violence and mass street demonstrations will likely
continue.
Sadr could attempt to leverage the physical presence of demonstrators
in the Green Zone for concessions from other political blocs and the government
– he could, for example, try and start a sit-in in the Green Zone itself. His
most recent orders to the demonstrators called for respecting public property
and not approaching embassies in the Green Zone, but did not include an order
to leave the area, indicating that Sadr
may attempt to keep his followers in the area to pressure PM Abadi and the
government to pass a fully technocratic cabinet reshuffle. A public sit-in in
the CoR building is thus possible, which places the security forces responsible
for protecting the CoR building at risk of either escalating or being over-run.
While an extended Sadrist sit-in would be an escalation, attempts by the
security forces to evict or shut off supplies and access to the demonstrators
could spark further violence in the Green Zone that would cause security in
Baghdad deteriorate to untenable levels.
Even the current escalation of the crisis will likely spark
intensive meetings between political bloc leaders to resume in order to find a
solution to the cabinet reshuffle. The U.S. and Iran will likely intensify
efforts to pressure political leaders into achieving stability. Sadr will
likely participate in negotiations in some capacity but continue the suspension
of the Sadrist Trend’s participation in CoR sessions, effectively suspending
the CoR until further notice.
The demonstration comes at an extremely dangerous time –
thousands of Shi’a pilgrims are descending on Kadhimiyah in northwestern
Baghdad from across Iraq for the commemoration of the Imam al-Kadhim on May 3,
an event that has already prompted the security forces to shut
many of Baghdad’s streets. ISIS has already launched an explosive attack
southeast of Baghdad in the predominantly Shi’a al-Nahrawan area with a
Vehicle-borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) that reportedly killed at
least 23 people and wounded 48 others. ISIS also attempted
IED attacks on April 29 targeted pilgrims at a railway station but were
foiled by the security forces. The demonstrations thus threaten to expose
civilians to ISIS attacks and will tax the security forces to their limits.
[Above: Sadrist demonstrators mass
in the main entrance hall of the CoR building on April 30.]
