By Franklin Holcomb
Russian-backed separatists demonstrated the Kremlin’s
continued capability to escalate offensive operations in eastern Ukraine with a
tactical advance into the uncontrolled village of Kominternove despite its intervention in Syria.
An armored group of roughly 100 Russian-backed separatists seized the village on December 22. Kominternove lies ten kilometers outside the key
Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. Separatist forces reportedly launched the
operation as retaliation
for Ukraine’s occupation of at least two uncontrolled villages east of Mariupol
in early December, a move which both Russian and separatist officials claimed could
lead to a resumption of hostilities. The advance of separatist mechanized units
toward Mariupol is a direct violation of the most recent withdrawal agreement
between Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces signed in September.
Ukrainian authorities called the occupation of the village a large-scale provocation. The Ukrainian military has reported several incidents of shelling from the separatists' new positions around Kominternove on the
neighboring uncontrolled village of Vodiane, located three kilometers closer to Mariupol. These advances underscore the potential for further
separatist activity around the strategic port city, targeting weakly defended or uncontrolled
villages between Ukrainian and separatist lines.
The separatist advance into Kominternove gives the
Russian-backed forces the ability to launch indirect fire on the outskirts of
Mariupol with lighter weaponry, including mortars. This may hold tactical
significance, enabling the separatists to project force against Ukrainian
defenses around the city without launching a high-profile rocket artillery
attack. The occupation of Kominternove, however, is not likely the precursor to
a major offensive in the near term. Ukrainian forces have fortified Mariupol
with a network of trenches, barriers, and mines, obstructing a direct Russian-backed
separatist assault on the city from the east. Russian-backed
forces would likely intensify operations near Mariupol and across the front
line prior to an offensive on the port city, testing government defenses with
probing maneuvers and bombarding Ukrainian positions with heavy artillery. Russian-backed
forces would also likely seek to outflank heavy Ukrainian defenses east of Mariupol by seizing strategic terrain to
the north of the city along the Donetsk-Mariupol highway. Although Russian-backed
separatists now have the ability to threaten a strategic Ukrainian city with a wider array of weapons, they have yet to trip several indicators that would signal a looming large-scale offensive.
