By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: Russia expanded efforts to portray itself
as a neutral actor in Syria ahead of the next round of negotiations by claiming
to support tailored elements of the Syrian armed opposition. The Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) reiterated during a press briefing on January 11 that
“only joint efforts” by the Syrian regime and select Syrian opposition groups
will “achieve victory over terrorism” in Syria, despite Russia’s continued
targeting of armed opposition factions. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian
warplanes are currently conducting strikes supporting ground operations of 11 opposition factions, which the
Russian MoD described as “Syrian patriotic forces.” Alleged recipients of
Russian air support primarily consist of groups supported by the U.S. such TOW
anti-tank missile recipient Jaysh Asoud al-Sharqiya, an anti-Assad opposition
faction that has previously accused Russia of targeting their headquarters in the Damascus countryside. Russia claimed to conduct strikes “in
the interest of” Jordanian-backed opposition group Jaysh Ahrar al-Asha’er in the villages of al-Taf and Khosh Hammad in Dera’a Province, areas
where the group is currently clashing with ISIS. Local reporting, however, did
not verify Russian strikes in the area. The Russian MoD also reported strikes
supporting U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ anti-ISIS ground operations
near Ayn Issa north of ar-Raqqa City. Local reporting indicated a limited
number of Russian airstrikes occurred in the area, although it remains unclear
if the Syrian Democratic Forces benefitted from these strikes. Russia is overstating
and, in some cases, fabricating its efforts to support armed opposition groups
in Syria. Russia aims to use this disinformation to obfuscate its position as
the regime’s guarantor against the armed opposition and present itself as a
legitimate mediating actor ahead of negotiations. Russia also seeks to
demonstrate that it does discriminate between opposition groups in order to
position itself as an authority in determining which parties are able to
participate in negotiations. In tandem with airstrikes against other armed
opposition groups, these efforts also ultimately aim to disrupt the U.S.’s
partnerships inside Syria.
Russia continues to target critical infrastructure and
inflict heavy civilian casualties in Syria. French Foreign Minister Laurent
Fabius demanded
the cessation of Russian and Syrian airstrikes on civilian locations on
January 11, calling any such strike “inadmissible.” Russian strikes in Idlib
Province resulted in 81 casualties, at least 22 of which were civilians, in a
January 9 attack against a Jabhat
al-Nusra prison in the town of Ma’aret al-Nouman. Local sources also
reported that Russian strikes targeting three schools in the town of Anjara in
Western Aleppo on January 11 killed as many as 35
civilians, including 17 children. Russian warplanes reportedly also
targeted both a hospital
and a relief warehouse in the Jebel Turkman Mountains of Northwestern
Syria. The Syrian opposition demanded further confidence building measures from
the regime ahead of negotiations to include the cessation of Russian airstrikes
in Syria, stating that talks are not feasible while “there are foreign forces
bombing the Syrian people.” The regime, however, remains unlikely to grant any
such concession as Russian air operations have ensured the preservation of the
regime and its superior position on the battlefield.
The following
graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on
reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media,
and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents
locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of
individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW
places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official
government statements reported through credible channels and
documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in
Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
