By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
The Russian air campaign in Syria
continues to bolster the position of the Assad regime ahead of negotiations
between pro- and anti-regime representatives scheduled for January 25. The
overwhelming majority of Russian airstrikes continue to support ongoing regime
operations, targeting rebel positions in Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Homs, Damascus,
and Dera’a Provinces from December 28, 2015 to January 3, 2016. Russia targeted
ISIS-held terrain with only a limited number of strikes in Aleppo, Raqqa, and
Deir ez-Zour Provinces. Russian warplanes carried out a concentration of
strikes in central Dera’a Province in support of an ongoing regime offensive against
the rebel-held town of Sheikh Meskin and the nearby Brigade 82 base, which are situated
along a key ground line of communication (GLOC) connecting Dera’a City to
Damascus. Local sources reported as many as 200 Russian strikes targeting rebel positions near Sheikh
Meskin from December 28 to January 3, enabling pro-regime forces to seize
Brigade 82 as well as the northern neighborhoods
of Sheikh Meskin on December 29. The seizure of Brigade 82 and the inability of rebel forces to retake
it will erode both the will and capability of the armed opposition to
continue to fight the Syrian regime in Southern Syria ahead of negotiations.
Russian warplanes also supported Kurdish ground operations against the Syrian opposition in
Aleppo Province from December 28 to January 3. Russian airstrikes along the
rebel frontline with Kurdish forces in northwestern Aleppo enabled U.S.-backed
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – an alliance of Kurdish YPG and moderate armed
opposition groups -- to seize
at least three
villages near the rebel-held border town of Azaz. Russian support for Kurdish
operations against Arab-majority areas will likely further destabilize Aleppo
province and escalate ongoing tensions between Aleppo’s armed opposition and
Kurdish forces.
The following
graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on
reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media,
and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents
locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of
individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW
places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official
government statements reported through credible channels and
documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in
Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
