UA-69458566-1

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Belarus Warning Update: Belarus Confirms Plans to Purchase Advanced Air Defense Systems from Russia

January 14, 2021 2:30 EDT

By George Barros

The Kremlin will likely employ Russian S-400 advanced air defense systems in Belarus as ISW forecasted. The commander of Belarus’ Air Force and Air Defense Forces announced on January 14, 2020, that the Belarusian Defense Ministry (MoD) is conducting pre-contract work to equip Belarus’ anti-aircraft missile divisions that currently operate the S-300 system with S-400 and Pantsir-S systems.[1] ISW first warned of this threat in August 2020, after the MoD reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems with the holding company for the manufacturers of the Russian S-300, S-400, and S-500 air defense systems.[2]

Belarus’ acquisition of S-400 systems poses a significant threat to US national security. The Kremlin likely seeks to integrate Belarus’ currently independent air defense systems into Russia’s own national air defense system, which would give Moscow control over their employment.[3] The Kremlin likely seeks to deploy new and control existing anti-access/area denial weapon systems in Belarus to contest NATO and Eastern European airspace more than it already does with systems deployed in Kaliningrad.[4] Such integration would degrade NATO’s ability to defend the Baltics—a risk ISW forecasted in September 2020.[5]

The Kremlin will likely use the upcoming Zapad 2021 exercise in September 2021 to further consolidate Russian control over Belarus’ anti-access/area denial systems. Russia’s next annual capstone strategic readiness exercise—Zapad 2021—will likely emphasize Russian-Belarusian air defense integration. Belarusian air and air defense forces conducted joint training emphasizing using “new and modernized weapons” to defend against precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on January 14.[6] The MoD explicitly said the experience gained from this January 14 training will be used in joint exercises with Russian units during Zapad 2021.[7] Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) will likely conduct Zapad 2021 in western Russia and Belarus.[8] ISW warned in December 2020 that the Kremlin would likely use the Zapad 2021 exercise to further integrate Russian and Belarusian military units at deep levels.[9]

The Kremlin may field S-400 systems in Belarus before September 2021. The MoD’s confirmation of “new and modernized” air defense systems’ role in Zapad 2021 coincided with its confirmation of plans to purchase Russian S-400 systems. This coincidence may indicate that Moscow seeks to equip Belarusian air defense units with S-400 systems before September 2021 so Belarusian and Russian air defense units—both equipped with S-400 systems—can participate in an integrated fashion during Zapad 2021.

Russian security personnel in unmarked uniforms are reportedly operating in Belarus. A Belarussian protester claimed unmarked Russian personnel detained and beat him in Minsk on December 20, 2020.[10] The protester claimed that during his detention an unmarked Russian security agent said, “I came here from Moscow to help,” and, “Pray that Belarusian riot police detain you, and not us. Because we will simply kill you.”[11]

This testimony follows a series of indicators of Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) preparations to operate in Belarus. Unmarked Rosgvardia trucks reportedly were spotted in Smolensk heading toward the Belarusian Border on August 16, 2020.[12] Security personnel wearing unmarked uniforms appeared in Minsk for the first time on September 5, 2020.[13] Elements of two Rosgvardia units deployed to Minsk on September 28–October 3, 2020, for a small arms military sports tournament that was effectively a series of tactical exercises with Belarusian special forces.[14] Rosgvardia and the Belarusian Interior Ministry ratified a cooperation agreement on November 19, 2020, permitting Rosgvardia personnel to operate in Belarus.[15] The Kremlin already may have deployed Rosgvardia personnel to Belarus to augment Belarusian security forces, which are operating at reduced strength following a steady trickle of personnel resignations since the crisis began in August 2020.[16]

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

 


[1] https://www.belta dot by/society/view/armija-vypolnit-ljubuju-zadachu-dlja-sohranenija-territorialnoj-tselostnosti-strany-golub-424021-2021/; https://www.interfax dot ru/world/745186; https://russian.rt dot com/ussr/news/822235-belorussiya-kompleksy-s-400; https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/10461405

[2] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-lukashenko-and-kremlin-vie-control-over-future-russian-weapons

[3] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-lukashenko-and-kremlin-vie-control-over-future-russian-weapons

[4] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html

[5] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-lukashenko-and-kremlin-vie-control-over-future-russian-weapons

[6]  https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/109473/

[7]  https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/109473/

[8] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021

[9] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021

[10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO-NDgfixpo

[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO-NDgfixpo

[12] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-russia-and-belarus-launch-military-exercises

[13] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-security-personnel-green-uniforms-without-insignia-appear-minsk

[14] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-likely-disrupts-lukashenko%E2%80%99s-plan-defusing-protests

[15] An official Belarusian legal portal did not publish this document until December 18, 2020. https://pravo dot by/document/?guid=12551&p0=I02000029&p1=1&p5=0

[16] https://t dot me/By_Pol/146; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/14/lukashenko-belarus-by-pol-security-forces-protests/; https://isans.org/analysis-en/policy-papers-en/the-situation-in-law-enforcement-agencies-of-belarus.html; https://www.rferl.org/a/exiled-defectors-belarus-police-holding-ex-colleagues-to-account/30976835.html

 

 

Monday, January 11, 2021

Syria Situation Report: December 16, 2020 - January 7, 2021

By Isabel Ivanescu

Key Takeaway: Salafi-jihadist organizations in Syria are growing more ambitious. Both ISIS and Hurras al-Din have recently carried out attacks in Turkish-controlled areas in which they had not previously been active. While these attacks were fairly ineffective, they demonstrate intent and capacity to expand operations. Meanwhile, ISIS carried out two ambushes of regime forces in Deir ez-Zour Province that resulted in dozens of casualties. ISIS and Hurras al-Din are well postured to exploit security gaps in both Turkish- and regime-controlled areas and will likely do so in the coming year.

Click the image below to enlarge. 



Monday, December 28, 2020

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Likely Contriving Amenable Government Structure in Belarus

 December 28, 2020

By Savannah Modesitt

An independent Russian media outlet published documents allegedly detailing Kremlin plans to cement control over Belarus through constitutional changes and a Kremlin-amenable political party in Belarus. Independent Russian news outlet “The Insider” published several documents allegedly from internal Kremlin discussions on December 25 outlining Kremlin plans to maximize Russian influence over the Belarusian government through shaping constitutional amendments and restructuring.[1] Among the documents are a framework for gaining political and social influence in Belarus, a speech by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) General Vladimir Chernov seemingly to Kremlin officials on an unknown occasion outlining the role of Kremlin-amenable Belarusian politicians in constitutional reform, a list of Belarusian “assets,” and the foundational document for a new Kremlin-run political party in Belarus.[2] The documents allegedly come from the President's Office for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries, headed by Chernov, although there is no independent verification of the authenticity or provenance of the documents.[3] The reports indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a scenario in which self-declared President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko leaves office. Without independent validation, the documents by themselves cannot serve as confirmation of the Kremlin’s preparation for a post-Lukashenko scenario. ISW has previously forecasted, however, that the Kremlin may support a pro-Kremlin alternative to Belarusian President Lukashenko to further Union State integration to cement Kremlin suzerainty of Belarus, a forecast that is in accord with the policies outlined in the documents.[4]

The Kremlin likely plans to create a pro-Russian, anti-Lukashenko Belarusian political party. One of the documents details the creation of the “Right of the People,” which plans to push for the creation of a parliamentary-presidential republic in Belarus.[5] The report also includes an alleged list of “assets,” likely individuals who are candidates for the Kremlin to prop up and support in a transition government.[6] Chernov allegedly said that Kremlin loyalists should hold power in a planned new Belarusian parliamentary-presidential republic.[7] This assessment tracks with ISW's previous forecasts that the Kremlin may start grooming pro-Russian politicians and a Kremlin-amenable successor to replace Lukashenko.[8]

Kremlin plans for a puppet government in Belarus may pose security risks in 2021. In addition to propping up loyalist politicians, one of the documents in the report strategizes forming an information infrastructure with ownership of media channels and community organizations.[9] The Kremlin likely intends to use increased control over Belarusian media to curtail the ability of Belarusians to protest Union State integration. A Kremlin push for the removal of Lukashenko from office may also catalyze Putin’s ability to establish a permanent Russian military presence inside Belarus, a most dangerous course of action that ISW previously assessed.[10] The West should closely monitor the Kremlin’s interaction with Lukashenko and political and social structures inside Belarus in order to respond to Kremlin attempts to consolidate a power base outside Lukashenko.

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

 


[1] https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[2] https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[3] https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[4] ISW previously forecasted that the Kremlin may start grooming a Kremlin-preferable successor to replace Lukashenko; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021

[5] 28-year old International Relations Belarusian graduate Nikita Logovoy edited portions of the foundational document. He supports the opposition movement and has posted photos of himself with the opposition flag. His father is a businessman who cooperates with Russian companies, has dealings in Kaliningrad, and is listed in Chernov’s list of “assets”; https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[6] https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[7] Chernov allegedly made this comment in a speech from October 3; https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[8] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021

[9] The document of the Kremlin’s strategy for Belarusian integration outlines the formation of information infrastructure to maintain influence in Belarus; https://theins (dot) ru/politika/237945

[10] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021

 

Monday, December 21, 2020

Belarus Warning Update: Promised Major Opposition Protest March Fizzles

By Savannah Modesitt with Madisyn Goodballet

December 21, 2020

Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanouskaya failed to marshal large protester turnout for her so-called “People’s Tribunal” on December 20.[1] Tikhanouskaya called for the protest to be the opposition’s largest turnout when she announced it on November 13.[2] No more than a few thousand protesters marched as part of the “People’s Tribunal” protest in the 20th consecutive week of protests, far short of the tens and hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in some previous rallies.[3]

The low turnout is a significant setback for the opposition because it demonstrates the limits of Tikhanouskaya’s effectiveness as an opposition leader inside Belarus. ISW has previously assessed that Belarusian citizens will be less likely to continue following Tikhanouskaya’s leadership if her ability to marshal protesters continues to decline.[4] Protest participation will likely decline further as the weather worsens, offering Tikhanouskaya little chance to redeem this disappointment.

Protesters continued their tactic of marching in small, local rallies scattered throughout Minsk and Belarus.[5] The Viasna human rights group reported that Belarusian security forces arrested 157 protesters.[6] Pro-regime demonstrators drove tractors in Minsk and were accompanied by traffic police.[7] For the second Sunday, since protests began, police did not close metro stations and the government did not shut down the internet, indicating that officials did not expect the protests to be large or threatening to state authority.[8]

Tikhanouskaya announced the launch of a reporting system to let protesters submit evidence of the regime's violence.[9] The evidence is meant to allow lawyers to initiate criminal cases both abroad and in the “new Belarus.”[10] Tikhanouskaya’s team announced that protesters registered 28 entries by the end of December 20.[11]

Lukashenko is increasing legalistic and nonviolent methods of deterring protests. The Belarusian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) announced the creation of an internal database of protesters on December 20.[12] The database includes personal information about Belarusians identified as protesters since August 9. The MVD also arrested an 18-year-old organizer of the Telegram channel “Punishers Molodechno” on December 20 for disseminating the personal information of law enforcement officers.[13]

Lukashenko continues to open criminal cases in Belarus to threaten Tikhanouskaya and jailed opposition leaders. The Belarusian Prosecutor’s Office announced on December 21 that it has opened criminal cases against Tikhanouskaya, jailed opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova, opposition leader Pavel Latushko, and others for the creation of an extremist organization to seize power unconstitutionally.[14] The Prosecutor’s Office said it would assess cases in which people—citizens or foreigners—rendered assistance to the “extremist group.”[15] Lukashenko is likely amplifying his efforts targeting major opposition leaders in Belarus and abroad to undermine support for Tikhanouskaya further.

Tikhanouskaya seeks to leverage the US-based Belarusian diaspora to garner international support against Lukashenko and in favor of Belarusian protesters. Several organizations of the Belarusian diaspora signed a petition asking the US Congress, US President Donald Trump, and US President-Elect Joseph Biden to hold Lukashenko accountable for crimes against humanity in Belarus on December 21.[16] Tikhanouskaya is likely attempting to expand the opposition’s strategy to use international support to exert greater political pressure against Lukashenko. She may increasingly rely on this support as her main means of challenging Lukashenko inside Belarus if her ability to muster protest action inside the country continues to wane.

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

 

 

 


[1] The “People’s Tribunal” is the opposition’s call to protest against the impunity of Belarusian security forces who used violence against citizens; https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1340555149010472961

[2] https://t (dot) me/tsikhanouskaya/421

[3] https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1340620144347910146; https://apnews.com/article/alexander-lukashenko-belarus-elections-minsk-europe-f7701b01de37c4c4c3700c796bc27d75

[4] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021

[5] https://tass (dot) com/world/1237637; https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1340620144347910146; https://www (dot) belta (dot) by/incident/view/guvd-v-minske-za-uchastie-v-nesanktsionirovannyh-meroprijatijah-zaderzhany-okolo-100-chelovek-421028-2020/; https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-demonstrators-detained-rally-lukashenka-resignation/31010031.html

[6] https://spring96 (dot) org/be/news/101015;  https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-bilorus-protest-zatrymannya/31010178.html; https://twitter.com/tutby/status/1340625292604391430?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1340625292604391430%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.radiosvoboda.org%2Fa%2Fnews-bilorus-protest-zatrymannya%2F31010178.html

[7] https://twitter.com/VoicesBelarus/status/1340575425139978240; https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1340596714907037696

[8] https://nn (dot) by/?c=ar&i=265564

[9] https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1340733333542678529

[10] https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1340733333542678529

[11] https://t.me/tutby_official/20778

[12] https://meduza (dot) io/news/2020/12/21/mvd-belarusi-po-trebovaniyu-lukashenko-sostavilo-bazu-s-dannymi-protestuyuschih;https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1340931491396726785

[13] https://www dot interfax dot ru/world/742157; https://www dot belta dot by/incident/view/mvd-soobschilo-o-zaderzhanii-administratora-destruktivnogo-telegram-kanala-421013-2020/ ; https://www (dot) belta (dot) by/incident/view/mvd-soobschilo-o-zaderzhanii-administratora-destruktivnogo-telegram-kanala-421013-2020/

[14] https://people (dot) onliner (dot) by/2020/12/21/sozdanie-ekstremistskogo-formirovaniya-genprokuratura-vozbudila-ugolovnye-dela-protiv-latushko-tixanovskoj-i-drugix-opponentov-vlasti

[15] https://people (dot) onliner (dot) by/2020/12/21/sozdanie-ekstremistskogo-formirovaniya-genprokuratura-vozbudila-ugolovnye-dela-protiv-latushko-tixanovskoj-i-drugix-opponentov-vlasti

[16] https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1341031523663884293

 

Friday, December 18, 2020

Belarus Warning Update: Putin Will Increase Pressure on Lukashenko to Integrate Belarus in 2021

 December 18, 2020, 7:45 pm EDT

George Barros

Russian President Vladimir Putin has used the ongoing crisis in Belarus to increase his sway over self-declared Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has long stonewalled Moscow’s persistent efforts to integrate Belarus into Russia. A sustained protest movement following Lukashenko’s overt manipulation of Belarus’ August 2020 presidential election has seriously degraded Lukashenko’s ability to resist Russian pressure to integrate Belarus into Russia – a key Kremlin campaign ISW’s Russia Team has analyzed extensively in over 70 published assessments in 2020.[1]

The Kremlin has achieved major milestones in its pressure campaign to subordinate Belarus’ military to Russia since August 2020. Russian military units have been deploying to Belarus on a near-monthly basis under the rubric of “joint exercises” since August 2020. These exercises could support a sustained Russian deployment to Belarus.[2] The Kremlin leveraged the crisis in Belarus to test integrating Russian and Belarusian combat units at the battalion level for the first time in September 2020.[3] Russia and Belarus adopted a common military doctrine, announced the completed formation of Russian-Belarusian “regional grouping of forces,” and began conducting negotiations for deeper cooperation between the countries’ security services in October 2020.[4] Putin is also likely pressuring Lukashenko to create a unified advanced air defense system under Moscow’s control, among other concessions.[5]

Putin continued prioritizing Russo-Belarusian military integration in December 2020. The Commonwealth of Independence States (CIS)—a known vehicle for expanding Kremlin control over former Soviet republics—approved a draft concept on closer military cooperation until 2025 on December 10.[6] Lukashenko approved a plan for the use of the new joint Russo-Belarusian “regional grouping of forces” on December 10.[7] Belarusian defense officials said the Russian General Staff participated in producing this plan. The Union State—a supranational structure that the Kremlin is using to subvert Belarus’ sovereignty—must ratify this plan before it takes effect, and likely seeks to do so at a planned meeting in late December. Lukashenko may cancel Belarus’ participation in this meeting to delay making such concessions.

Putin made more progress to integrate Belarus’ government and economy into Russia’s in December 2020. Lukashenko enacted a law on Russian-Belarusian visa recognition reciprocity on December 7.[8] Russia’s and Belarus’ education ministers expressed interest in creating a “unified educational space.”[9] Russia’s and Belarus’ prime ministers discussed strengthening integration in the Union State framework and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)—the Kremlin-dominated customs union designed to integrate former Soviet states’ economies—on December 8.[10] Lukashenko attended an EAEU meeting on December 11 in which the body discussed plans to create an integrated gas market and harmonize member states’ oil market regulations.[11] The Kremlin has exploited Belarus’ economic structural dependency on Russian oil subsidies to pressure Lukashenko for Union State integration for years and will likely continue to do so.[12]

Forecast for 2021

Most likely course of action (MLCOA): Lukashenko will remain in power, protests continue to lose momentum, and Belarus remains de facto sovereign—despite mounting Russian pressure to surrender to integration—by the end of 2021.

Street protests will likely not succeed in overthrowing Lukashenko in 2021. Belarusian protesters have demonstrated great bravery and moral courage in their sustained protests against Lukashenko’s despotism, but Lukashenko, with Kremlin backing, has successfully mitigated the risk of protests deposing him. Lukashenko’s regime has recovered stability from its lowest point on August 18, when regional security forces in western Belarus likely defected from Minsk—the key event that triggered the Kremlin’s intervention to support Lukashenko.[13] The protests’ size and momentum has significantly diminished since their peak turnout in September. Lukashenko’s security forces demonstrated proficiency in managing the September protests that were significantly larger and more forceful than current December protests. Lukashenko has arrested or expelled the opposition’s main leaders, systematically harassed the opposition’s secondary and tertiary tiers of leadership, and has cracked down on factory strike participants. Protests have consistently grown smaller since November and Lukashenko has increasingly driven the opposition underground.  

Protests will likely continue in 2021.  Lukashenko’s efforts to end the protests with economic incentives and constitutional amendments in 2021 will likely fail. Lukashenko instructed his cabinet and national bank to enact price controls and attend “to the needs of the people” on December 7.[14] Lukashenko reiterated his intention to redistribute powers to democratize Belarus—likely via constitutional amendments to be introduced in early 2021—on December 7.[15] Enough protesters will likely reject these measures so that the crisis continues, though at a lower level of intensity.

Protesters in Minsk will likely develop decentralized local organizational leadership at the neighborhood level in 2021. The Poland-based NEXTA Telegram channel—the main driver of organized protests in Belarus—assumed a leadership role in organizing protest activities in the crisis. NEXTA likely launched a new campaign to spur the development of local opposition leadership in Belarus on November 20, to counteract Lukashenko’s efforts to partition the opposition.[16] This campaign is likely succeeding. Protesters in Minsk spontaneously gathered for organized protest on December 12 without directions from NEXTA. The development of local leadership has not changed the protesters’ tactics, which remain peaceful as of this writing. Growth in sporadic organized protests in the absence of public calls to action from NEXTA would indicate the protesters in Minsk have developed local organization.

Lukashenko may succeed in undermining Lithuania-based opposition leader and former Belarusian presidential candidate Svitlana Tikhanouskaya’s credibility inside Belarus. Tikhanouskaya is planning the opposition’s largest protest yet for December 20 and likely hopes that this protest will exceed 200,000 participants.[17] It is unclear whether protester attendance will exceed Tikhanouskaya’s expectations given that her previous attempts to marshal protesters have been ineffective.[18] Belarusian citizens will be increasingly unlikely to continue following Tikhanouskaya’s leadership if her track record in marshalling protesters continues to worsen.  

The protest movement will likely not threaten Lukashenko in the short term. Lukashenko maintains control over his security forces despite some defections. Protest participation continues to steadily decrease as protester fatigue and weather in Minsk worsen. Lukashenko’s willingness to intensify political repression currently outweighs the protesters’ willingness to embrace more radical tactics that would pose threats to his regime.

The Belarusian government will likely further increase its control over the situation by banning Belarusians from leaving Belarus starting on December 20.[19] The ban will likely augment security forces’ policing capabilities by restricting Belarusian activist movement; hundreds of Belarusians have fled to Poland and Lithuania in search of political asylum since the crisis began in August.[20]

Belarus will likely remain a de facto sovereign state at the end of 2021 despite Putin’s intensified efforts to subsume Belarus’ military and governance structures via the Union State and other Kremlin-dominated international organizations. Lukashenko has demonstrated sophistication and skill in stonewalling major political concessions from Putin. The protests and Kremlin information operations have severely degraded but not destroyed Lukashenko’s maneuvering space to resist Putin. Lukashenko will likely continue stalling many—but not all—Kremlin demands in 2021.  

Lukashenko will likely resist Putin’s intensified efforts to establish a permanent conventional Russian military presence inside Belarus. Lukashenko has successfully pushed back against Putin’s multiple efforts to open a strategic Russian airbase in Belarus since at least 2015, for example.[21] Lukashenko likely could stall the ratification of the plan for the use of the Russo-Belarusian “regional grouping of forces” and other Kremlin integration initiatives.

Lukashenko will likely resist Putin’s overarching efforts to gain control over Belarus’ military in 2021. The Kremlin conducted an abnormally high number of exercises in and around Belarus in 2020.[22] The Kremlin will likely increase the size and frequency of its monthly military exercises with Belarus in 2021.[23] Russian influence will likely grow inside the Belarusian military, but Lukashenko will likely retain effective control over his armed forces. An increased rate of exercises between Belarusian and Russian units would indicate that the Kremlin is likely succeeding in its efforts to gain control over the Belarusian military. A reduction in Russian-Belarusian exercises’ scope and/or frequency would indicate the Kremlin is likely facing setbacks.

Lukashenko will likely fail to resist Russian military deployments to Belarus in 2021—a key component of the larger effort to gain control over Belarus’ military. Russia’s and Belarus’ defense ministers agreed to jointly conduct Russia’s next annual capstone strategic readiness exercise—Zapad 2021—and signed resolutions on conducting “joint special exercises” to prepare for this exercise.[24] Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) will likely conduct Zapad 2021 in western Russia and Belarus in September 2021.[25]

Conventional Russian forces likely will deploy to Belarus for Zapad 2021 on a significantly larger scale than they did for Zapad 2017. The Kremlin will likely use Zapad 2021 to deploy an unprecedented number of Russian military personnel into Belarus in September 2021. The Kremlin may choose to continue fielding Russian units in Belarus after the Zapad 2021 exercise officially ends. Moscow may also deploy forces to Belarus, possibly repeatedly, before the formal opening of Zapad on the pretext of making preparations for it or conducting rehearsals. The Kremlin will likely use the Zapad 2021 exercise to further integrate Russian and Belarusian military units at deep levels.

Putin may attempt to deploy Russian-controlled advanced air defense systems in Belarus in 2021. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on December 11 a unified automated area defense control system will cover approximately 2,000 square kilometers of the WMD from St. Petersburg to Voronezh at an unspecified time in the future.[26] This network will receive targeting information on air and ground objects and coordinate WMD military responses in real-time. The Kremlin likely seeks to deploy Russian-controlled advanced air defense systems to Belarus and will likely attempt to integrate those systems into this automated WMD network.[27]

Putin will likely succeed in further integrating Belarus’ and Russia’s economies in 2021.

Putin will likely further integrate Belarus’ and Russia’s economies through Belarus’ upcoming 2021 chairmanship of the Commonwealth of Independence States (CIS). Lukashenko said strengthening integration among former Soviet states via the CIS and EAEU is an “inevitable necessity” when discussing his priorities for Belarus’ upcoming 2021 chairmanship of the CIS.[28] The country-chair of the CIS changes annually and Belarus will assume that chairmanship on January 1, 2021. Belarus last chaired the CIS in 2014 and 2012.[29]

The Kremlin will likely continue using energy pressure to coerce Belarus into making integration concessions. Russia and Belarus began negotiating natural gas contracts for 2021 in November 2020.[30] The Kremlin historically has used similar last-minute energy-supply deals to coerce political concessions from other states.[31]

The Kremlin will likely sabotage or co-opt Lukashenko’s upcoming constitutional amendments to prolong the crisis. The Belarusian government will likely hold the sixth All-Belarusian People’s Assembly—a national forum including members from all of Belarus’ social strata held every five years—on January 27-28, 2021.[32] Lukashenko suggested transferring some of his presidential powers to the assembly and stated he wants to elevate the assembly into a constitutional body.[33]

The Kremlin remains supportive of Lukashenko’s constitutional amendments for now. Russia’s ambassador to Belarus said Belarus’ constitutional reforms will democratize Belarus and strengthen its sovereignty on December 12.[34] Putin expressed reserved optimism about the planned amendments in his annual press conference on December 17.[35] The Kremlin will likely interfere in Belarusian political processes if Moscow perceives a risk Lukashenko’s amendments may end the crisis without further formalizing Belarus’ integration with Russia.[36] Any unplanned senior Kremlin officials’ visit to Minsk in close temporal proximity with Lukashenko’s introduction of constitutional amendments would indicate Kremlin interference to subvert or leverage those amendments.  

Lukashenko will likely remain in power by the end of 2021, albeit in a very vulnerable state. Lukashenko has no intention of abdicating before his term expires in 2025 and has the means to maintain his regime against the current state of the protests.   

Lukashenko will likely intensify crackdowns on protest leadership in 2021. New Belarusian laws permitting the regime to strip Belarusians of their citizenship for participating in protests will come into effect in June 2021.[37] Lukashenko will likely attempt to use this power to dismantle the growing local opposition leadership. 

The Kremlin may start grooming a Kremlin-preferable successor to replace Lukashenko. Lukashenko has said he does not intend to seek reelection after his current term expires in 2025.[38] Tikhanouskaya stated if she becomes president of Belarus, she intends to immediately conduct new, clean Belarusian presidential elections but not run in them herself, as she is not qualified to run the state.[39] The Kremlin will likely seek to ensure Lukashenko’s eventual successor will support Belarus’ integration with Russia. The Kremlin may support popular Kremlin-linked Belarusian opposition leaders who have spoken positively about reaching out to the Kremlin for mediation, such as Maria Kolesnikova, to become the next president.[40]

Most dangerous course of action (MDCOA): Putin succeeds in establishing a conventional Russian military presence inside Belarus permanently, with or without Lukashenko, de facto ending Belarusian sovereignty. Putin likely seeks to sustain a continuous Russian conventional military presence inside Belarus. Lukashenko’s continued support for the Russian information operation framing the protests as an existential NATO-backed hybrid war against the Union State would indicate this MDCOA is more likely. An increased rate of WMD exercises in 2021 focusing on command and control, logistics, and signals activity would indicate this MDCOA is more likely.[41]

The Kremlin will likely seek to avoid an overt military intervention into Belarus but will do so if Putin deems it necessary. The Kremlin will likely intervene in Belarus under the pretext of defending the Union State if it perceives that protests might weaken Lukashenko enough to put his continued control at risk. This is an unlikely and extreme scenario that will be costly for Putin. The Kremlin likely seeks to avoid having to intervene in Belarus but will do so if Lukashenko appears likely to lose control over his security services. Increased defections from Belarusian security services or a fundamental shift in protester’s tactics that threaten Lukashenko’s current control over the situation would indicate the MDCOA is more likely. A reframing from Lukashenko characterizing Russia’s growing influence as unwelcome or subversive would indicate this MDCOA is less likely.

Putin’s success in Belarus would pose significant security risks to the West. Putin’s successful integration of Belarus into Russia would increase the Kremlin’s strategic projection capabilities against NATO and Ukraine. Russia’s total freedom of movement in Belarus would enhance Russian forces’ ability to threaten the Suwalki Gap to geographically isolate NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia from the rest of the alliance.[42] Russia’s total freedom of movement in Belarus would also open new avenues of attack for the Kremlin to employ against Ukraine. Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, is only 95 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and Ukraine’s defense posture is unprepared for a threat from its northern border.[43] If Putin gains even partial freedom of movement and operations in Belarus, he can significantly increase the risk to NATO and Ukraine. The West should support Belarus’s full independence as a sovereign state and should not recognize any agreements subverting that sovereignty that Putin may coerce Lukashenko into. It must also couple full-throated support for complete Belarusian sovereignty with its already-articulated support for the protest movement.

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

 


[1] See understandingwar.org.

[2] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-setting-conditions-long-term-continuous-russian-military; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-russia-and-belarus-prepare-october-exercises-belarus; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-russia%E2%80%99s-western-military-district-prepares-october-exercises; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-russia-likely-began-preparing-logistics-supply-lines-belarus

[3] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-nexta-actively-encourages-belarusian-security-service-defections

[4] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-intensifies-russian-belarusian-military-integration; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-will-likely-use-october-military-exercises-advance-its

[5] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-intensifies-russian-belarusian-military-integration

[6] https://rus.azattyq.org/a/30994230.html; http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Putin%27s%20Offset%20The%20Kremlin%27s%20Geopolitical%20Adaptations%20Since%202014.pdf

[7] https://www.belta dot by/president/view/lukashenko-odobril-plan-primenenija-regionalnoj-gruppirovki-vojsk-belarusi-i-rossii-419514-2020/; https://iz dot ru/1098125/2020-12-10/lukashenko-odobril-plan-primeneniia-regionalnoi-gruppirovki-voisk-belorussii-i-rf; https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/108509/; https://www.belta dot by/president/view/lukashenko-predstavili-pererabotannyj-plan-primenenija-sovmestnoj-gruppirovki-vojsk-belarusi-i-rossii-419498-2020

[8] https://pravo dot by/document/?guid=12551&p0=H12000057&p1=1&p5=0

[9] https://www.belta dot by/society/view/belarus-i-rossija-zainteresovany-v-edinom-obrazovatelnom-prostranstve-karpenko-420241-2020/; https://www.belta dot by/society/view/zasedanie-kollegij-ministerstv-obrazovanija-belarusi-i-rossii-prohodit-v-minske-420225-2020/

[10] https://www.belta dot by/economics/view/golovchenko-i-mishustin-obsudili-naraschivanie-sotrudnichestva-v-energetike-transporte-i-419200-2020

[11] https://www.belta dot by/president/view/etot-god-stal-nastojaschim-ispytaniem-na-prochnost-glavnoe-iz-vystuplenija-lukashenko-na-sammite-eaes-419749-2020; http://president.gov dot by/ru/news_ru/view/uchastie-v-zasedanii-vysshego-evrazijskogo-ekonomicheskogo-soveta-25042/; http://www.eurasiancommission dot org/ru/nae/news/Pages/10-12-2020-2.aspx

[12] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-review-belarus-update-lukashenko-uses-oil-tariffs-delay-integration-russia

[13] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-begins-security-forces-support-lukashenko-following

[14] https://www.interfax dot ru/world/740221

[15] http://president.gov dot by/ru/news_ru/view/soveschanie-o-rabote-ekonomiki-v-2020-godu-i-proektax-prognoza-razvitija-strany-na-2021-j-25003/; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-pressures-lukashenko-implement-his-previous-integration; http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-likely-disrupts-lukashenko%E2%80%99s-plan-defusing-protests

[16] https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1337780012573974530; https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1337776172223115264

[17] https://t dot me/tsikhanouskaya/421

[18] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-police-detain-demonstrators-protests-escalate; http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/11/belarus-warning-update-belarusian.html

[19] https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus--close-land-borders-covid--19-opposition-activists-movement-limited/30993827.html

[20] https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-54209579

[21] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-sends-airborne-troops-belarus-exercise%E2%80%94and-message; https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/06/10/2015/5613ebe59a794769839c9e3f; https://www dot vesti dot ru/article/1501418; https://www.gazeta dot ru/army/2019/11/14/12811502.shtml

[22] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-unprecedentedly-expansive-military-exercises-fall-2020-seek-recreate-soviet

[23] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/09/belarus-warning-update-multiple-russian.html; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/10/russias-unprecedentedly-expansive.html

[24] https://reform dot by/175035-hrenin-nazval-uchenija-zapad-2021-glavnym-meroprijatiem-sledujushhego-goda

[25] Russia’s annual strategic joint-staff exercise usually occurs in September.

[26] https://function.mil dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12329701@egNews; https://iz dot ru/1098336/anton-lavrov-roman-kretcul/shchit-s-upravleniem-zapad-rossii-prikroet-avtomatizirovannaia-sistema?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

[27] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-lukashenko-and-kremlin-vie-control-over-future-russian-weapons

[28] https://www.belta dot by/president/view/integratsija-neizbezhnaja-neobhodimost-lukashenko-ozvuchil-prioritety-predsedatelstva-belarusi-v-sng-420767-2020/

[29] http://www.cis.minsk dot by/reestr/ru/index.html#reestr/view/text?doc=4807; http://www.cis.minsk dot by/reestr/ru/index.html#reestr/view/text?doc=3617

[30] https://www.gazprom dot com/press/news/2020/november/article517803/

[31] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/01/europe-cedes-opportunity-in-russia.html

[32] https://www.dw dot com/ru/oppozicija-belarusi-zajavila-o-provedenii-v-janvare-vsebelorusskogo-narodnogo-sobranija/a-55621869

[33] https://www.interfax dot ru/world/740380

[34] https://sputnik dot by/politics/20201212/1046378756/Mezentsev-konstitutsionnaya-reforma-posposobstvuet-demokratizatsii-v-Belarusi.html

[35] https://eadaily dot com/ru/news/2020/12/17/putin-vyrazil-soglasie-s-lukashenko-po-situacii-v-belorussii; https://tass dot ru/politika/10283283

[36] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-likely-disrupts-lukashenko%E2%80%99s-plan-defusing-protests

[37] https://newsbel dot by/12/17/v-belarusi-s-iyunya-2021-goda-nachnut-lishat-grazhdanstva-za-ekstremizm/; https://pravo dot by/document/?guid=12551&p0=H12000067&p1=1&p5=0

[38] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-likely-disrupts-lukashenko%E2%80%99s-plan-defusing-protests

[39] https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-is-overcoming-her-fears

[40] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-belarusian-opposition-reaches-out-kremlin

[41] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-russia-likely-began-preparing-logistics-supply-lines-belarus

[42] https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2020/08/why-future-belarus-matters-united-states/167627/

[43] Ukraine’s armed forces have built up Ukraine’s defenses against Russian forces in eastern and southern Ukraine.