Alexandra Braverman, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Katherine Wells, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The IDF captured a Syrian man who was collecting intelligence on Israeli border arrangements during a ground raid in southern Syria. This Iranian-led intelligence effort is likely an attempt to gather information on Israeli border security that Iranian-backed militias could use to undertake small-scale infiltrations into the Golan Heights.[4] The IDF said on November 3 that the Egoz Unit captured Ali Suleiman al Asi in Saida, Daraa Province, in recent months.[5] The IDF said that al Asi collected intelligence on Israeli operations along the Syrian border with the Golan Heights for “future terror activity” on behalf of Iran.[6] The IDF “closely monitor[ed]” al Asi before his capture.[7] The IDF did not specify when the raids took place, but Israeli special operations forces (SOF) have conducted numerous covert raids into Lebanon to disrupt Hezbollah border infrastructure since October 2023.[8] The IDF said that Aadi’s capture prevented a future attack and exposed Iranian attempts to gather intelligence on the Syria-Golan Heights border.[9]
- West Bank: The Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that Iran is “pouring everything [it] can” into the West Bank, indicating that Iran will very likely attempt to pursue a different strategy when rebuilding Hamas to fight Israel again.
- Syria: The IDF captured a Syrian man who was collecting intelligence on Israeli border arrangements during a ground raid in southern Syria. This Iranian-led intelligence effort is likely an attempt to gather information on Israeli border security that Iranian-backed militias could use to undertake small-scale infiltrations into the Golan Heights.
- Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: The Israeli prime minister stated that Israel needs to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River “with or without an agreement” to achieve Israel's stated war aims, which is to return residents of northern Israel to their homes under safe conditions. Current Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are unlikely to achieve these war aims, though it does not follow that future Israeli operations will fail to achieve the Israeli objectives
- Iranian Retaliation against Israel: UK-based Saudi outlet Elaph reported that Israel warned the Iraqi government that if Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to attack Israel from Iraqi territory, Israel may strike predetermined targets in Iraq.
- US Diplomatic Efforts: The United States warned Iran against launching another attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes into Iran on October 25 because the United States will not be able to restrain Israel’s response.
- US Posture in the Middle East: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that B-52 strategic bombers arrived in the Middle East on November 3. US CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla met with IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi in Israel between November 2 and November 3.
- Saudi Arabia: The Islamic Resistance in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques, an Iranian-backed militia claiming to operate in Saudi Arabia, claimed its second attack since announcing its existence.
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
- End Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip
- Survive the October 7 War as a capable political and military organization with control over Lebanon
The IDF 36th Division continued operations in southern Lebanon on November 3.[80] The 36th Division engaged Hezbollah and Radwan SOF fighters and killed them in close-quarters combat and airstrikes.[81] The IDF naval special operations unit Shayetet 13, Yahalom combat engineers, and Oketz canine unit raided a compound in southern Lebanon that Hezbollah used to plan and conduct infiltration attacks.[82] Israeli forces engaged and killed Hezbollah fighters in a tunnel at the compound.[83] Israeli forces located dozens of weapons, including Kalashnikov rifles, anti-tank guided missiles, surface-to-air missiles, mortars, and a rocket launcher aimed to fire at northern Israel.[84] Israeli forces demolished the compound.[85] Geolocated footage posted on November 3 showed the demolition of a tunnel underneath a hill northwest of Ramyeh.[86] It is unclear if this is the same underground infrastructure that Shayetet 13 and the Yahalom engineers raided.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed three attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on November 2. The claims include the following:
- A drone attack targeting an unspecified "vital target" in the Golan Heights.[99]
- Two separate drone attacks targeting unspecified “vital targets” in the Jordan Valley.[100]
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
[1] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/with-hezbollah-and-hamas-weakened-gallant-says-iran-looking-to-ignite-terror-in-west-bank/
[2] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Carter_Hamas_View_War.pdf?x85095
[3] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-21-2024 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-14-2024 ; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/09/world/middleeast/iran-west-bank-weapons-smuggling.html
[4] www dot idf.il/244999
[5] www dot idf.il/244999
[6] www dot idf.il/244999
[7] www dot idf.il/244999
[8] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sends-troops-into-lebanon-escalating-fight-against-hezbollah-1dbcee03?msockid=31724c4845486561027c583141486b0b
[9] www dot idf.il/244999
[10] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html
[11] www dot ynetnews.com/article/bjvhbyj11ke; https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1841096315259818482
[12] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16192; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/at-northern-border-netanyahu-vows-to-restore-security-in-north-with-or-without-an-agreement/
[13] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/return-of-displaced-northern-residents-to-their-homes-becomes-an-official-war-goal/
[14] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/at-northern-border-netanyahu-vows-to-restore-security-in-north-with-or-without-an-agreement/
[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-16-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-21-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/hezbollah%E2%80%99s-military-forces-are-failing-lebanon
[16] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/hochstein-and-mcgurks-meetings-with-top-israeli-officials-on-gaza-and-lebanon-were-constructive-us-official-says/
[17] www.kan dot org.il/content/kan-news/politic/818729/ ;
https://x.com/suleimanmas1/status/1851687885470102001?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q
[18] https://elaph dot com/Web/News/2024/11/1552254.html
[19] https://www.axios.com/2024/10/31/israel-iran-planning-attack-iraq
[20] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-30-2024
[21] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-30-2024
[22] https://elaph dot com/Web/News/2024/11/1552254.html
[23] https://www.reuters.com/article/world/exclusive-iran-moves-missiles-to-iraq-in-warning-to-enemies-idUSKCN1LG0W7/ ; https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2024/10/01/houthis-and-iraqi-militias-target-israel-amidst-lebanon-escalation/
[24] https://www.axios.com/2024/11/02/us-warn-iran-attack-israel-nuclear-oil-sites ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-26-2024
[25] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-2-2024
[26] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1852847593153294451
[27] https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3954442/statement-from-pentagon-press-secretary-maj-gen-pat-ryder-on-middle-east-force/
[28] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/centcom-chief-kurilla-meets-halevi-tours-thaad-missile-defense-battery-deployed-in-israel-by-us/ ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1853002810339533174
[29] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943159900115025 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943210324066768
[30] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943210324066768
[31] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943210324066768
[32] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943226392506698 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-2-2024
[33] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16175
[34] https://x.com/TwistyCB/status/1852814447120699398
[35] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1852766746693742595 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-6-2024
[36] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852923916102337020
[37] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1853014715640742265
[38] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943226392506698 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943231404662809
[39] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1852748146964603320
[40] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1852748146964603320
[41] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1852748146964603320
[42] https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4893 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7788
[43] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943226392506698
[44] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943231404662809
[45] https://t.me/sarayaps/18769
[46] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852794395017269733
[47] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/03/israel-iran-war-news-lebanon-gaza-palestine/#link-BO62PRUDNVGMVKG4QV7CX6LEOA
[48] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-23-2024
[49] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-23-2024
[50] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/03/israel-iran-war-news-lebanon-gaza-palestine/#link-BO62PRUDNVGMVKG4QV7CX6LEOA
[51] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/03/israel-iran-war-news-lebanon-gaza-palestine/#link-BO62PRUDNVGMVKG4QV7CX6LEOA
[52] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1704 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1705
[53] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1705
[54] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1705
[55] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1704 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1706
[56] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16190
[57] https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1852699213349478635; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/world/middleeast/israel-naval-commandos-hezbollah.html
[58] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16190
[59] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16190
[60] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852770974770360653; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1852773388483207296
[61] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852770978901741907
[62] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852770978901741907; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852770981787414593
[63] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852770974770360653
[64] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1853130338735903067
[65] www dot timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/after-deadly-drone-strike-israel-aims-to-wipe-out-hezbollahs-uav-unit-changes-siren-protocols
[66] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1853128257530380692
[67] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1853128257530380692
[68] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-14-2024; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-24-2024
[69] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943086004965566
[70] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943086004965566
[71] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943099191791829
[72] https://x.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1853089559803785524; https://x.com/yair_kraus/status/1852810197208875097
[73] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/98860; https://t.me/channelnabatieh/98874
[74] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943099191791829
[75] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1853046347475132839
[76] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1853046347475132839
[77] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1853046347475132839
[78] www dot idf.il/244886
[79] https://t.me/mmirleb/8684;
https://t.me/mmirleb/8685;
https://t.me/mmirleb/8686
[80] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943111783154025
[81] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852943111783154025
[82] www dot idf.il/244967
[83] www dot idf.il/244967
[84] www dot idf.il/244967
[85] www dot idf.il/244967
[86] https://x.com/Me1Ray/status/1853103869129318536
[87] https://x.com/QalaatM/status/1852784763913871442; https://t.me/channelnabatieh/98835; https://t.me/channelnabatieh/98833
[88] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/98835
[89] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-30-2024
[90] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/99048
[91] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-30-2024
[92] https://t.me/mmirleb/8650 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8655 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8655
; https://t.me/mmirleb/8657 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8658 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8659 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8660 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8661 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8662
; https://t.me/mmirleb/8663 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8664 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8665
; https://t.me/mmirleb/8672 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8672 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8674
; https://t.me/mmirleb/8675 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8676 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8679
; https://t.me/mmirleb/8682 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8683 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8688
; https://t.me/mmirleb/8690 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8694 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1853132034316575126 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852978134796145129
[93] https://t.me/mmirleb/8675 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8676 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8682
[94] https://t.me/mmirleb/8694
[95] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-hezbollah-drone-sparked-fire-in-north-after-it-failed-to-shoot-it-down/
[96] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-hezbollah-drone-sparked-fire-in-north-after-it-failed-to-shoot-it-down/
[97] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/bedroom-window-at-netanyahus-home-was-hit-in-saturdays-hezbollah-drone-strike/
[98] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-hezbollah-has-fired-over-100-rockets-from-lebanon-at-israel-today/
[99] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1447
[100] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1448 ; https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1450
[101] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1852938542298595698 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/16188
[102] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16188
[103] https://t.me/Almoqawamabeladalharamaen/5
[104] https://x.com/Tammuz_Intel/status/1850195344576913453 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-26-2024#_edn988bbd2c52081da3e9e924914e24998f12