By Jack Ulses
Key Takeaway: The Helsinki Summit
likely emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin to intensify his global
subversive campaigns. Russia has already set conditions to consolidate its gains
in Ukraine and may be preparing to annex portions of eastern Ukraine as it did
separatist regions of Georgia. The U.S. and its allies must reaffirm their
commitments to Ukraine's sovereignty to deter further Russian aggression.
Russian President Vladimir
Putin likely emerged emboldened from his summit with U.S. President Donald
Trump. Trump
did not press
Putin on his destabilizing activities including the illegal annexation of
Crimea and the interventions in eastern Ukraine and Syria. The Kremlin will likely
interpret the lack of a firm response
to its aggression as an implicit acceptance of its continued subversive campaigns in Ukraine.
Russia had already
taken action prior to the summit to consolidate its gains in Ukraine. Russia took the
first steps towards integrating separatist republics in eastern Ukraine into
Russia. Russian Oryol Oblast Governor Andrey Klychkov signed
a declaration to create a joint commission to strengthen trade and cultural
ties with the separatist Donbas in eastern Ukraine on July 11. The decree
mirrors the gradual model of integration Russia has used with the separatist
regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. The Russian Federal Security
Service has also increased its intimidation and detention
of Ukrainian ships in the contested
Sea of Azov in recent weeks. Putin likely intends for these low-visibility
measures to set conditions for the integration of eastern Ukraine into Russia.
The U.S. must reinforce
its commitment to Ukraine. Putin will likely exploit the meeting and his consequent
boost in global stature as an opportunity to intensify his subversion campaign
in Ukraine. Putin largely kept his activity below the threshold of
international condemnation ahead of his meeting with Trump. The U.S. and its
allies must publicly condemn Russia's continued interference in Ukraine to
raise the costs of further subversive activity by the Kremlin. The U.S. must also
continue its support for the eventual accession of Ukraine to NATO to
demonstrate its commitment to Ukrainian independence and prevent Russia from
regaining control of the former Soviet Union.
