By Christopher Kozak
The Russo-Iranian Coalition and U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition hold divergent strategic objectives that will undermine efforts to deconflict operations against ISIS in Deir ez-Zour Province. The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition remains largely fixated on its mission to defeat ISIS along the Middle Euphrates River Valley. No other actors operating in the region share this prioritization. The Russo-Iranian Coalition aims first and foremost to block the further expansion of the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition in Eastern Syria. Russia and Iran view this expansion as a long-term threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as well as potential ground lines of communication from Iran to Syria via Iraq. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – an umbrella organization led by the Syrian Kurdish YPG that is the preferred ground partner of the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition in Syria – also retains its own objective to secure valuable terrain and resources as a future bargaining chip in negotiations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Both sides intend to seize and exploit the valuable oil and natural gas fields of Eastern Syria. These conflicting and overlapping objectives cannot be overcome through deconfliction but rather stand to drive future direct confrontation between the Russo-Iranian Coalition and U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition along the Euphrates River Valley.
The
U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition and Russo-Iranian Coalition have entered a dangerous
escalation cycle near Deir ez-Zour City as of September 2017. Russia conducted overnight airstrikes targeting positions held by the SDF near
Deir ez-Zour City on September 16. The strike occurred less than one day after
the SDF-affiliated Deir ez-Zour Military Council asserted that its fighters would resist efforts by pro-regime
forces to cross the Euphrates River in Eastern Syria. Pro-regime forces later crossed the Euphrates River near Deir ez-Zour City on
September 18. Russia and Syria also reportedly conducted a new set of airstrikes and artillery shelling targeting the SDF on
September 25 after the SDF seized the critical Conoco Gas Plant on September 23. The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition has
repeatedly attempted to bolster deconfliction efforts with Russia – including
an unprecedented “face-to-face” meeting between high-ranking military officers to
share maps and intelligence on their positions in Eastern Syria. These efforts
nonetheless remain insufficient to address the strategic gulf between the two
rival coalitions.
The
Russo-Iranian Coalition will likely intensify its efforts to constrain and
block the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition in Eastern Syria. Pro-regime forces will
likely launch new cross-river operations to deny key oil fields and population
centers to the SDF along the Euphrates River Valley. Russia has already
established at least one fixed pontoon bridge across the Euphrates River near Deir
ez-Zour City. The Russo-Iranian Coalition will likely deploy additional
capabilities including anti-aircraft systems to Deir ez-Zour City to further constrain
the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition. The Russo-Iranian Coalition will also likely
bolster its efforts to coopt Iraq into a joint offensive against ISIS in Albu Kamal and
Al-Qa’im on the Syrian-Iraqi Border that excludes the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition.
This operation could include cross-border operations by Iraqi Shi’a Popular
Mobilization Units (PMU) backed by Iran. The Russo-Iranian Coalition and Iraqi
Security Forces have already begun synchronized ground operations to clear ISIS from
the Syrian-Iraqi Border on September 16. Russia and Iran stand to gain a
sustained forward presence to exert influence over Iraq and Jordan via Eastern
Syria. The mounting competition on the ground will also likely distract all
actors from their ostensible shared objective – the defeat of ISIS in Deir
ez-Zour Province. ISIS thus stands to retain at least limited safe haven for
the foreseeable future along the Middle Euphrates River Valley.
