By: Jessa Rose Dury-Agri, Patrick Martin, and the ISW Iraq Team
Iraq’s
Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) units resumed their advance in western Mosul on
April 11 after a 19-day pause. CTS units are
advancing along two axes. The northern advance will link up
with the 9th Iraqi Army (IA) Armored Division conducting
clearing operations
northwest of the city. Additional CTS units are encircling
the Old City toward the sector’s northern boundary. CTS Commander Abdul Ghani al-Assadi indicated
his troops may open
a corridor
north of the Old City in hopes that ISIS militants will flee the Old City
rather than fight in the dense complex. The U.N estimates as many as 400,000
civilians are trapped within the Old
City. ISIS has intentionally drawn
U.S.-led Coalition airstrikes on structures within the Old City where it has
forced civilians to congregate. ISIS will continue this strategy, as it
successfully stirred up political blowback. ISIS also conducted small-scale chemical
weapons
attacks on ISF in the Old City, though with minimal
impact according to ISF and U.S. Department of Defense sources. ISIS will
likely allocate its greatest defenses to al-Nuri Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi appeared
publically in 2014.
Turkey’s escalation of attacks on U.S. partner forces in northern
Syria and northwest Iraq threaten anti-ISIS operations. Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan stated
he would launch a new, Iraq phase of operation in Syria, Operation Euphrates
Shield on April 4. The Turkish Air Force conducted
airstrikes on positions held by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) affiliates
near Sinjar in addition to Hasaka Province, eastern Syria on April 25. The
Turkish airstrikes also hit a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) base near
Sinjar, likely unintentionally. Turkey also pressured Iraq’s Prime Minister
Haidar al-Abadi to redirect Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) from
Tel Afar, a primarily Turkmen town west of Mosul by threatening action should
the PMU seize Tel Afar. PM Abadi cut a deal with PMU
elements to divert efforts from Tel Afar to villages southwest of Sinjar, near
the Iraq-Syria border. PM Abadi’s decision reduced the threat of a
Turkish-Iranian contest over Tel Afar that could have threatened the final
phase of the Mosul operation. Turkish incursions in northern Iraq strain
relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government and also
detract from the Mosul campaign’s final phase.
