By Genevieve
Casagrande and Ellen Stockert
Russia’s
campaign against Syrian civilians continued undeterred by the U.S. strike on April
6 in response to the Bashar al-Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in
southern Idlib. Local reports indicate Russia regularly used incendiary munitions and bunker buster munitions in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces in order to inflict mass casualties on the
population in rebel-held terrain following the U.S. strike. Russian airstrikes
also targeted local civilian infrastructure from April 4 - 25, including hospitals, schools, mosques, and civil defense centers
across Syria. Russia continually targeted Khan Shaykhoun, the site of the
regime’s chemical attack on April 4, throughout the reporting period.
Furthermore, activists claimed Russia targeted a hospital and civil defense center
treating those wounded in Khan Shaykhoun immediately following the regime’s
sarin gas attack. The use of chemical weapons is just one of many means the
pro-regime coalition has to punish anti-Assad populations in Syria. Russia
remains a principal contributor to President Assad’s purposeful campaign to
target Syrian civilians. The Assad regime has a long history of violence against its own people, but the advanced capabilities Russia has brought to theater have allowed the pro-regime coalition to target civilians
with even greater precision.
The U.S.
strike on Shayrat did not meaningfully degrade the ability of the Assad-Russia-Iran
coalition to attack anti-Assad forces and civilians throughout Syria. Russia
provides the bulk of the pro-regime coalition’s asymmetric airpower against
anti-Assad forces in Syria, while Iran provides high end
manpower through the deployment of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
Hezbollah, and other Iranian proxy forces. Russia continued to provide the
regime with necessary airpower to blunt opposition advances in Dera’a City in
southern Syria, for example. However, Russia predominantly focused its airpower
in northwestern Syria against the opposition and civilians from April 4 - 25,
despite the pro-regime coalition’s continued counter-ISIS narrative. Russian
airstrikes supported pro-regime advances in northern Hama Province,
enabling pro-regime forces to regain all territory lost to the opposition in the
rebels’ most recent Hama offensive launched on March 21. Iran, Russia, and the
regime have continued to push north amidst aggressive Russian airstrikes in the
area, placing pro-regime forces within 13
miles of Khan Shaykhoun as of April 25. The
regime’s rapid advance towards Idlib Province may increasingly force the
remaining acceptable opposition to turn towards powerful Salafi-Jihadi partners
for support. Russia’s continued operations in support of the Assad regime
coupled with continued attacks against civilians in rebel-held areas will only
further drive instability and radicalization within the Syrian conflict.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.
High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
