By Emily Anagnostos, Jennifer Cafarella, and Jessa Rose Dury-Agri
Regional actors are vying to dominate the post-ISIS security
structure and political order in northern Iraq. Turkey and the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) are threatening the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and
its affiliates in Sinjar, west of Mosul City. Sinjar is a historic flashpoint
for ethnic tensions and at the center of Turkish, Iranian, and Kurdish
interests. The KDP seeks to incorporate Sinjar into the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG), expanding the KRG’s territorial control. Turkey supports the
KDP’s desire to move against the PKK and has threatened to participate in a
direct attack. The desire to move against Sinjar could bring Turkey and the KDP
into conflict with Iran. Iranian-backed elements of the Popular Mobilization
are stationed nearby at Tel Afar and have claimed that the PKK-backed Yazidi
militia in Sinjar is part of the Popular Mobilization. Iranian-backed militias
could intervene on the side of the PKK in Sinjar if Turkey or the KDP act
further, escalating the conflict which could undermine post-ISIS stability in
northern Iraq. Russia is also seeking to gain influence in northern Iraq
through a financial relationship with the KDP, which could embolden the KDP by
granting it greater independence from Baghdad. Russian-owned oil company
Rosneft renegotiated a loan with the KRG to pre-finance crude oil exports to
Russia on February 21. Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani later met
with a senior Russian delegation in Arbil on March 1 to discuss strengthening
bilateral relations between the KRG and Russia, marking the first high-level
Russian delegation to visit Iraqi Kurdistan. Separately, tribal violence in
southern Iraq, particularly in Maysan Province, signals rising intra-Shi’a
competition ahead of provincial elections in September 2017.
