The
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) reached the Tigris River on January 8 after
recapturing several of the remaining neighborhoods in southeast Mosul. In the
north, the ISF pushed into central Mosul from the north and east from January 4
to 9, nearing the University of Mosul.
The
ISF pushed towards key infrastructure for ISIS in Mosul after making
significant progress in the northern and southeastern neighborhoods from
January 4 to 9. The rapid gains follow new accelerants added to the operation
from December 29 to January 3, with the arrival of ISF reinforcements and
increased Coalition trainers. Newly deployed Federal Police units, working
alongside the existing Iraqi Army units, are consolidating control of
southeastern Mosul. Meanwhile, the Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) reached the Tigris River
after securing the eastern bank around the
southernmost Fourth Bridge on January 8. The CTS, however, is unlikely to make
any advance by ground into western Mosul in the near term because the bridge is
inoperable due to previous Coalition airstrikes that destroyed
the bridge in an effort to prevent ISIS movement into eastern Mosul. Coalition
advisors on the ground will likely assist the ISF in rebuilding the
bridge,
or creating a new one, as they did in Qayyarah in July 2016. The ISF will
likely pause before an operation launches to cross the river in order to
regroup and plan for the likely stiff ISIS resistance on the western bank. It may
also coordinate an advance into western Mosul with units remaining south of the
city in order to retake the airport and military base.
The
CTS is also leading a push from the north towards the University of Mosul,
which had previously been a major logistical hub for ISIS in the city. The CTS
entered the area after crossing the Khosr River, a tributary that feeds in the
Tigris, during a night raid on January 6,
shifting the focus from northeast to northern Mosul. Their effort was matched
by units from the Iraqi Army breaching Mosul’s northern limits for the first
time on January 6 as well. Their entrance into the city limits is likely the
result of U.S. advisors embedding deeper in the ISF’s ranks, as the army units
had struggled to advance beyond Mosul’s northern suburbs for weeks. The ISF
will likely face significant resistance as it enters the university, though it
is unclear if ISIS will actively fight for the campus. A
CTS official reported on January 8 that ISIS had burned
several buildings before withdrawing, corroborating earlier reports.
ISIS may decide to heavily mine the buildings and crater the roads instead of
fighting in order to slow the ISF’s advance and leave it vulnerable to
counterattacks but limit the risk of its own casualties.
