By Jonathan Mautner
Russia intensified its air
operations in and around Aleppo City after Syrian opposition groups lifted
the regime’s blockade of the city’s eastern districts on August 6,
demonstrating its continued commitment to bolster the regime in the Syrian
Civil War. Russia continued to conduct strikes in Aleppo from July 28 – August 9
in support of the regime campaign to besiege Aleppo City and force the
surrender of the primary stronghold of opposition factions acceptable to the West
in Northern Syria. The opposition reestablished its ground line of
communication (GLOC) leading out of the city on August 6, dealing a significant
setback to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his attempt to capture Syria’s
largest urban and commercial center. Russian warplanes subsequently intensified
their airstrikes against opposition targets in eastern Aleppo City and villages
along the M5 Aleppo – Damascus Highway in the southern Aleppo countryside, preventing
civilians and humanitarian organizations from using the newly-established GLOC
into the city. The targeted strikes also constrained the movement of opposition
forces as they attempted to further consolidate control in the southwestern
districts of Aleppo City. Russia’s continued use of air power against critical
infrastructure and densely-populated terrain in Aleppo City follows U.S.
President Barack Obama’s statement on August 4 that Russia’s “direct
involvement” in support of regime operations to besiege the city has raised
“very serious questions” about its commitment to a political resolution of the
Syrian Civil War. Russia continues to prioritize the pursuit of pro-regime
military objectives despite a recent proposal
for partnership with the U.S. against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria. Russia is
likely to continue to wage its air campaign in order to bolster pro-regime
forces attempting to encircle the city, the surrender of which would pose an
existential threat to the viability of the acceptable Syrian opposition in
Northern Syria.
Russia also intensified its air
operations against opposition targets in Idlib Province after an unidentified
opposition group downed
an Mi-8 Russian helicopter near the town of Saraqeb in northern Idlib on
August 1, killing
the five Russian military personnel on board. The downing of the helicopter
marked the single deadliest event for Russia since its air campaign began in
Syria on September 29, 2015. Russian warplanes conducted retaliatory airstrikes
against several small opposition-held areas in the vicinity of Saraqeb from
August 1 - 2 and targeted neighborhoods in Saraqeb from August 5 – 7. Local
activist sources also reported
that
Russian jets dropped incendiary
munitions while conducting airstrikes against Idlib City on August 7, suggesting
that Russia intended to achieve punitive and deterrent effects against opposition
forces in the province. Russia will likely continue to target core opposition-held
terrain in Idlib Province in order to disrupt Idlib-based opposition forces
massed in Aleppo. Russia also conducted airstrikes against ISIS-held terrain near
the city of Palmyra in eastern Homs Province on August 7 following pro-regime deployments to
Aleppo City from the Palmyra area. Russia likely aims to prevent ISIS advances
against pro-regime forces in Palmyra as the regime is redeploying forces away
from the area.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
