By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key
Takeaway: Russian airstrikes continue to bolster the Assad regime’s efforts to defeat
the Syrian opposition. Russian airstrikes from October 19-20 primarily supported
ongoing regime ground offensives in rebel-held areas in the southern
countryside of Aleppo, the al-Ghab plain of northwestern Hama Province, and the
Jebel al-Akrad mountain range in northeastern Latakia Province. The regime is
launching probing attacks in Jebel al-Akrad and the al-Ghab plan, likely in
order to fix rebel forces in Hama and Latakia Provinces. This effort will
prevent rebel forces from reinforcing positions in Aleppo Province, where the
regime and its allies have launched their main effort.
Russia’s air campaign continues to marginalize
moderate elements of the Syrian opposition by targeting moderate, U.S.-backed
TOW anti-tank missile recipients. Russian airstrikes killed
the Chief of Staff of U.S.-backed TOW missile recipient First Coastal Division
in the vicinity of Jebel al-Akrad on October 19. TOW missiles have slowed
regime advances throughout northwestern Syria throughout the past two weeks,
particularly as Russia increased its supply of armored vehicles to the Syrian
regime. U.S.-backed rebels in Aleppo, for instance, reportedly have targeted
over 11 of the regime's armored vehicles with TOW missiles since October
16. Russian warplanes have targeted several other U.S.-backed TOW missile
recipients since the start of the Russian aerial campaign in Syria on September
30, including Liwa Suqour al-Jebel, Liwa Fursan al-Haqq, and Tajamu' al-Izza in
the provinces of Idlib and Hama, as well as the Martyr Lieutenant Ahmed Abdou
Battalion in Damascus. The moderate opposition and U.S.-backed rebel groups may
change their behaviors and alignments as a result of Russia’s attacks. Syrian
al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra may simultaneously expand its campaign
against U.S.-backed rebels with the support of allies within the Islamist
opposition.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
