Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 16, 2023, 8:45pm ET
Click
here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this
report.
Click here to see ISW’s 3D
control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a
mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.
Click
here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static
control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note:
The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on November 16. ISW
will cover subsequent reports in the November 17 Russian Offensive
Campaign Assessment.
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 15 to 16.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 18
Shahed-131/136 drones of which Ukrainian forces destroyed 16.[1]
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched S-300
missiles targeting Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces destroyed a
Kh-59 cruise missile over Poltava Oblast on the evening of November 15.[2]
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported on
November 16 that Russian forces changed the timing of the November 16
drone attack from their normal strike pattern by conducting the drone
strikes until around 9:30am local time, as opposed to conducting the
attacks at their usual time from around 10:00pm to 3:00-4:00am.[3]
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank
Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian military has concentrated over
800 missiles, including Kalibr and Onyx missiles, in occupied Crimea
and intends to use all of them against Ukrainian energy infrastructure
in winter 2023.[4]
Russian
Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev announced on November 16
that Russian authorities are strengthening Russian air defense over
Russia’s Central Federal Okrug, likely in response to Ukraine’s recently
implied intent to conduct an interdiction campaign against Russian
supply routes in rear areas during the winter. Patrushev also
announced that Russian authorities have organized patrols to protect
critical infrastructure facilities to prevent attacks and that the
Russian government is funding the creation of “territorial defense
lines” for oblasts bordering Ukraine.[5]
Patrushev added that Russian authorities are updating a list of all
critical infrastructure facilities – including fuel and energy
facilities and important transportation objects – that require
protection from unspecified threats.[6] The Central Federal Okrug consists of 18 federal subjects including Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts, which border Ukraine.[7]
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated on November 13
that Ukraine needs additional air defense systems and long-range
missiles to strike Russian rear areas.[8]
Ukrainian Ground Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo
stated on November 12 that Ukrainian forces’ current main task is to
disrupt Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs).[9]
Russian
milbloggers continued to criticize actors in the Russian information
space for distorting the reality of the Russian war effort, highlighting
an emerging cyclical dynamic in the Russian information space in which
the majority of Russian sources coalesce around a particular predominant
narrative and, in turn, a subset of different sources coalesces to
criticize the majority’s prevailing opinion. A prominent
Russian milblogger claimed on November 16 that Russian state media may
have falsely convinced the Russian people that “everything is fine” in
Russia’s war in Ukraine.[10]
The milblogger claimed that he does not understand why Russian state
media devotes so much time to promoting narratives about the “imminent
collapse of Ukraine" and portrays the Russian war effort so positively
that Russian viewers think that signing a military service contract is
unnecessary. Another Russian milblogger who previously served throughout
the front in Ukraine and correctly assessed Russia’s foundational
problems in Kharkiv Oblast in spring 2022 criticized several unnamed
Russian milbloggers for their recent overly positive reporting about
Russian counterattacks on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[11]
The milblogger claimed that the other milbloggers preemptively claimed
that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks on the east bank and
criticized them for setting unrealistic expectations for Russian forces.
The milblogger noted that such overoptimistic claims are forcing
Russian servicemen to “catch up” to these Russian politicians’ and
commanders’ unrealistic expectations of Russian battlefield successes.
The milblogger’s complaint suggests that the situation in Kherson Oblast
remains very ambiguous and is dynamic. The milblogger’s complaint
mirrors recent reports that the Russian General Staff uses battlefield
maps that differ from tactical reality and that local Russian commanders
order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that
align with the Russian General Staff’s inaccurate maps.[12]
Disjointed Kremlin efforts to consolidate control over the Russian
information space and report overly optimistic news are likely creating
these cycles of coalescence and backlash among Russian sources. The
Russian information space may grow increasingly volatile as the rift
between the Kremlin optimists and their critics expands.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin awarded a prominent Russian milblogger who was
previously critical of Russia’s military performance during its
full-scale invasion with a prestigious state honor, continuing the
Kremlin’s long-standing effort to coopt milbloggers and make them loyal
to the Kremlin. Putin awarded founder of Rybar
Telegram channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, the Russian Order of Merit of the
Fatherland Second Class for his efforts supporting the Russian
full-scale invasion of Ukraine on November 16.[13] Other Russian milbloggers congratulated Zvinchuk and praised him for launching the first awarded Telegram channel in Russia.[14]
Putin had previously engaged Zvinchuk by recruiting him to join the
Kremlin working group on mobilization problems on December 20, 2022,
which ISW assessed was Putin’s first concerted attempt to regain control
over the segment of Russia’s domestic audience that turned to the
Telegram information space for war coverage independent of Russian state
media.[15]
Zvinchuk’s Rybar
project amassed an audience of over 1.2 million followers by covering
Russian military operations in Ukraine and is frequently cited by
Russian and Western media alike (including ISW). Russian investigative outlet The Bell reported that Rybar
was originally a personal blog from its creation in 2018 until Wagner
Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly began sponsoring the
channel from 2019 to 2021.[16] The Bell observed that Rybar frequently published posts that may have advanced Prigozhin’s business interests in Syria during their partnership. Rybar
frequently published contradictory posts since the start of the
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Rybar’s posts and tone used to
loudly criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) only to then
defend disgraced Russian Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin against attacks
on his command from Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov and Prigozhin.[17] The Bell also found that Rybar amplified
numerous videos that supported the Russian MoD’s information operation
efforts to present partial mobilization in Russia in a more favorable
light. Rybar claims to sustain its four million ruble ($44,800)
monthly production cost via donations, although the channel also
profits from showing advertisements for companies associated with First
Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko and
Russian state media.[18]
ISW had observed a significant shift in the style and focus of Rybar’s war
coverage since the Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson
oblasts in fall 2022 during which Russian state propagandists were
unable to explain away Russia’s military failures and a deeply unpopular
mobilization of 300,000 reservists.[19]
Zvinchuk began appearing on Russian state television and the Russian
state media began heavily relying on Zvinchuk’s content at this time. Rybar’s
coverage since fall 2022 has significantly reduced its criticism of the
Russian MoD. This observed content and tonal shift is significant and
is likely the result of Putin’s efforts to coopt prominent Russian
milbloggers to reestablish Kremlin dominance over the Russian language
online information space, carry out information operations against
Western audiences, and prevent other influential Russian officials from
buying milbloggers’ loyalties. Zvinchuk’s award also likely serves as an
effort to incentivize other milbloggers to offer their loyalty to the
regime in exchange for accolades and Kremlin recognition.
Ukraine
stated that the continued Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has resulted in equipment and maintenance
failures that threaten the plant’s security. Ukrainian nuclear
energy operator Energoatom reported on November 16 that Russian ZNPP
authorities transferred reactor no. 5 to a hot shutdown state from a
cold shutdown state in violation of Ukraine’s nuclear regulatory orders,
resulting in a leak of a boric acid solution that entered all the
reactor’s steam generators.[20]
Energoatom reported that Russian ZNPP authorities’ “incompetence” in
bringing reactors from cold shutdowns to hot shutdowns has resulted in a
radioactive coolant leak from the first to second circuit of reactor
no. 4 and a similar situation involving reactor no. 6.[21]
Energoatom also reported that unspecified “incompetent” Russian actions
resulted in reactor no. 6 experiencing a temporary blackout on November
14, forcing the reactor to rely on emergency diesel generators.[22]
Energoatom stated that equipment at the ZNPP is constantly degrading
and that the frequency of such dangerous instances are increasing.[23]
The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not yet commented on
these incidents but expressed concern on November 13 over the extent and
effectiveness of maintenance on ZNPP safety systems and its own ability
to monitor ZNPP operations.[24]
The IAEA reported that these maintenance issues became apparent in July
and August 2023 when the steam generator of reactor no. 4 experienced a
leak that contaminated the reactor’s safety systems that had to be
recleaned. The IAEA reported that ZNPP operators have not granted its
contingent at the ZNPP access to all six reactor turbine halls to assess
their safety and that operators restricted IAEA access during recent
walkthroughs of the halls in October and on November 10. The IAEA
reported that the ZNPP planned maintenance of transformers of reactors
no. 4, 5, and 6 after recently completing maintenance of transformers of
reactors no. 1, 2, and 3 and noted that reactors no. 4 and 5 are in hot
shutdown mode in violation of the Ukrainian regulatory agency’s orders.
The
Ukrainian and IAEA reports indicate that Russia’s presence and
exclusive control over the ZNPP is increasing, suggesting that similar
failures may escalate under continued Russian occupation. The
IAEA announced on November 13 that its staff visited a Russian training
center for the ZNPP on November 7 and that Russian nuclear regulatory
agency Rostekhnadzor is establishing a permanent presence at the ZNPP.[25]
This announcement indicates the normalization of the Russian occupation
of the ZNPP despite Russian forces’ documented reckless conduct near
the plant.[26]
In addition to the recent equipment and mechanical failures, Russian
forces deployed military equipment on and inside ZNPP facilities in
summer-fall 2022 to protect these assets from Ukrainian strikes, while
setting conditions to blame Ukrainian forces for any incidents at the
ZNPP.[27]
The ZNPP has completely lost access to external power sources seven
times during its service history – all seven incidents occurring while
under Russian occupation.[28]
Cyprus
has reportedly been complicit in helping Russian elites, sanctioned for
supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, launder
money. The International Consortium of Investigative
Journalists (ICIJ) reported on November 14 that Russians who have been
under Western sanctions since 2014 owned or controlled almost 800
companies and trusts secretly registered in various countries and
territories including Cyprus, Lichtenstein, the British Virgin Islands,
and Hong Kong.[29]
The ICIJ also stated that Cypriot professional services firms have
worked on behalf of 25 Russians sanctioned after Russia’s 2014 invasion
of Ukraine and on behalf of an additional 71 Russians sanctioned after
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[30]
The ICIJ found that the Cypriot branch of an international professional
service firm helped a Russian billionaire transfer a $1.4 billion in
investments out of his name to evade European Union (EU) sanctions.[31]
The ICIJ cited figures from the Center for the Study of Democracy in
Sofia, Bulgaria, reporting that Russian businessmen have “invested” over
$200 million in Cyprus as of 2020, comprising half of all Russian
investments in Europe, and that about 300 Russian-owned companies
constituted 80 percent of Cyprus’ wealth at one point in time.[32]
Gazprom
Media Holdings, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned energy company
Gazprom, announced on November 16 that it acquired the majority share of
a large Russian blogger agency, likely in an effort to expand its
already extensive control over the Russian media space. Gazprom
Media Holdings announced that it bought 51 percent of shares in Insight
People, reportedly the largest blogging agency in Russia.[33]
Gazprom Media Holdings already owns Russian video streaming platform
RuTube, Russian social media network VKontakte, and several prominent
Russian TV channels and radio stations.[34]
Gazprom Media is headed by Alexander Zharov who previously served as
the head of Russian state censor Roskomnadzor from 2012 to 2020.[35]
Long-time Gazprom Head Alexei Miller notably has associates throughout
various power structures, and Gazprom Media's recent media acquisitions
indicates a possible rise in Miller’s influence. Miller is a long-time
associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin and likely has ties to
former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Head and Security Council
Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, as Patrushev’s sons previously held senior
positions at Gazprom.[36]
Russian
authorities discovered former Russian 6th Air Force and Air Defense
Army Commander Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov dead in his home in
Stavropol Krai on November 15. Russian sources reported that
authorities found Sviridov dead with a woman, likely his wife, and
suggested that the couple likely died around November 9. Russian sources
reported that Russian authorities have not yet determined Sviridov’s
and the woman’s cause of death but have ruled out carbon monoxide
poisoning and “violent” deaths.[37] Sviridov reportedly resigned from his position as commander of the 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army in 2009.[38]
Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 15 to 16.
- Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev announced on November 16 that Russian authorities are strengthening Russian air defense over Russia’s Central Federal Okrug, likely in response to Ukraine’s recently implied intent to conduct an interdiction campaign against Russian supply routes in rear areas during the winter.
- Russian milbloggers continued to criticize actors in the Russian information space for distorting the reality of the Russian war effort, highlighting an emerging cyclical dynamic in the Russian information space in which the majority of Russian sources coalesce around a particular predominant narrative and, in turn, a subset of different sources coalesces to criticize the majority’s prevailing opinion.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded a prominent Russian milblogger who was previously critical of Russia’s military performance during its full-scale invasion with a prestigious state honor, continuing the Kremlin’s long-standing effort to coopt milbloggers and make them loyal to the Kremlin.
- Ukraine stated that the continued Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has resulted in equipment and maintenance failures that threaten the plant’s security.
- The Ukrainian and IAEA reports indicate that Russia’s presence and exclusive control over the ZNPP is increasing, suggesting that similar failures may escalate under continued Russian occupation.
- Cyprus has reportedly been complicit in helping Russian elites, sanctioned for supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, launder money.
- Gazprom Media Holdings, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, announced on November 16 that it acquired the majority share of a large Russian blogger agency, likely in an effort to expand its already extensive control over the Russian media space.
- Russian authorities discovered former Russian 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army Commander Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov dead in his home in Stavropol Krai on November 15.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, near Robotyne, and northeast of Vasylivka and advanced near Avdiivka.
- The Russian Ministry of Education issued a draft order establishing a course called “Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland” for Russian middle and high school students starting in September 2024.
- The Russian government and Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia under the rubric of educational programs.
We
do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities
are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the
military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue
to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on
the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on
combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations
of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes
against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
- Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
- Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
- Russian Technological Adaptations
- Activities in Russian-occupied areas
- Russian Information Operations and Narratives
Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine
Russian
Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture
the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv
Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian force
conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
line on November 16 and did not make confirmed advances. Russian
milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized unspecified positions
near Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk) and that elements of the
Russian 6th Cossack Motorized Rifle Brigade captured unspecified
Ukrainian positions in the Siverskdirection (19km south of Kreminna),
although ISW has not observed visual evidence supporting either claim.[39]
Footage published on November 15 purportedly shows assault elements of
the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) storming
Ukrainian positions near Ivanivka.[40]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled
Russian attacks near Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk), Petropavlivka
(7km east of Kupyansk), Ivanivka, and Nadiya (16km west of Svatove).[41] A Russian milblogger claimed that fighting is ongoing near Tymkivka (19km east of Kupyansk).[42]
Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Artem Lysohor stated on November 16 that
the Russian military deployed units originally from the Russian far east
to near Svatove, likely referring to elements of the newly created 25th
Combined Arms Army (either of the Central Military District or Eastern
Military District).[43]
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov posted footage on November 16
purportedly showing the “Amura” group of Chechen ”Akhmat” Spetsnaz
operating drones in the Serebryanske forest area southwest of Kreminna.[44]
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, the former settlement of Zahoruykivka (a settlement 16km east of Kupyansk that was disincorporated in the 1980s), and near Dibrova (7km southwest of Kreminna).[45]
Russian
Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture
the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s
proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces continued
offensive operations south of Bakhmut on November 16 but did not make
confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian
forces continued assault operations south of Bakhmut.[46]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near
Bakhmut and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[47] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces continue battles for the heights near Klishchiivka.[48] One Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced southeast of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[49]
Russian milbloggers claimed on November 15 that Ukrainian forces
unsuccessfully attacked southwest of the ruins of the Mayorske concrete
plant (21km south of Bakhmut and just west of Horlivka).[50]
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on November 16 but did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian attacks near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.[51] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are advancing “meter by meter” from the Berkhivka Reservoir (5km northwest of Bakhmut) in the direction of Bohdanivka (5km west of Bakhmut).[52] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces seized previously lost positions along the railway line near Andriivka and Klishchiiivka on November 15.[53]
Russian
forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on November 16 and
made a confirmed advance on an unspecified recent date. Geolocated
footage published on November 16 indicates that Russian forces
marginally advanced north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant northwest of
Avdiivka.[54]
Russian milbloggers claimed on November 15 and 16 that Russian forces
seized several positions near the Avdiivka Coke Plant and waste heap,
and that Stepove (8km northwest of Avdiivka) is a contested “gray
zone.“[55]
Russian milbloggers claimed on November 16 that Russian forces also
advanced northwest of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka) in the
direction of Berdychi (5km northwest of Avdiivka).[56]
One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are attempting to
avoid personnel losses during their attacks near Krasnohorivka.[57]
Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces are advancing into
Avdiivka’s southeastern industrial zone along the Yasynuvata road and
have captured at least half of Avdiivka’s industrial zone.[58]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully
attacked near Novokalynove (7km north of Avdiivka) and Avdiivka and
east of Stepove and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[59] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka).[60]
The
Russian MoD claimed on November 16 that Russian forces repelled
Ukrainian attacks near Heorhiivka (30km southwest of Avdiivka).[61]
Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked west and southwest of Donetsk City on November 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Marinka (on the western outskirts of Donetsk City) and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).[62] A Russian source posted footage on November 16 claiming to show elements of the Russian 5th Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps) operating in the Marinka direction.[63]
The Russian MoD claimed on November 16 that Russian forces also repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novomykhailivka.[64]
Russian
Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain
frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian
forces launched assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area
on November 16 and made confirmed advances on an unspecified date.
Geolocated footage published on November 16 shows Ukrainian forces
repelling Russian attacks west of Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka
Novosilka) and confirming that Ukrainian forces recaptured some
positions in the area on an unspecified but likely recent date.[65]
Russian forces continued to attack along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on November 16 but did not make claimed or confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka), Prechystivka (18km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), and Novodarivka (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[66] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske.[67] The Russian “Vostok” Battalion claimed that there are localized infantry combat engagements on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.[68] A Russian milblogger indicated that elements of the Russian 336th Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltic Sea Fleet) are operating in the area between Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka.[69]
Ukrainian
forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on
November 16 and made confirmed territorial gains near Robotyne on
November 15. A Russian milblogger published and geolocated footage dated
November 15 showing Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions
immediately west of Robotyne, indicating a marginal Ukrainian advance.[70]
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully tried to
advance near Kopani (5km northwest of Robotyne), Rivne (9km west of
Robotyne), Novoprokopivka (immediately south of Robotyne), Verbove (8km
east of Robotyne), and in the direction of Novofedorivka (14km northeast
of Robotyne).[71]
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that
Ukrainian forces likely achieved some successes in the direction of
Novopokrovka (12km northeast of Robotyne) and are only separated by one
forest belt from the settlement defended by the Russian 108th Guards Air
Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th Guards VDV Division).[72]
Mashovets added that Ukrainian forces appear to have marginally
repelled elements of the Russian 136th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle
Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District
[SMD]) in the Kopani direction a few days ago and advanced closer to
Nesteryanka (10km northwest of Robotyne).[73]
Russian forces launched assaults on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne on November 16 but did not make confirmed territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (8km east of Robotyne).[74] Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 247th Guards VDV Regiment (7th Guards VDV Division) apparently lost control over heights northwest of Verbove, which is complicating the Russian defense of the settlement’s northwestern outskirts.[75] Mashovets noted that elements of the Russian 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Division, 58th CAA), 104th VDV Regiment, and 234th VDV Regiment (both part of the 76th Guards VDV Division) are engaged in intense battles on the Nesteryanka-Kopani line.[76] Mashovets claimed that the command of the Russian 19th Motorized Division and 76th Guards VDV Division have strict orders to hold Nesteryanka-Kopani line “under any circumstances” but ISW cannot independently verify this claim.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces marginally advanced northeast of Vasylivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 16. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on November 16 that Russian forces advanced by 500 to 600 meters near Pyatykhatky (13km northeast of Vasylivka and 25km southwest of Orikhiv).[77] Russian milbloggers also claimed that fighting is ongoing near Pyatykhatky and that Russian forces seized several unspecified positions in the area.[78]
Ukrainian
forces continued larger-than-usual operations on the east (left) bank
of Kherson Oblast on November 16 and appear to have advanced near Kynky
(30km northeast of Kherson City, 2km from the Dnipro River, and about
4km north of the E-58 highway). Geolocated footage published on November
15 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in northeastern
part of Krynky, which indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced in
the area.[79]
A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that battles are ongoing near
Poyma (11km east of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River),
Pishchanivka (15km east of Kherson City and 3km from the Dnipro River),
and Krynky.[80]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an
unsuccessful landing attempt in the areas of the Antonivsky Road Bridge
and the small railway bridge six kilometers east of the Antonivsky
Bridge.[81]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on November 16 that Ukrainian forces seized the initiative in the Black Sea area of operations and set conditions that force Russia to conceal their warships.[82]
Russian
Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand
combat power without conducting general mobilization)
The
Russian Ministry of Education issued a draft order establishing a
course called “Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland”
for Russian middle and high school students starting in September 2024.[83]
The draft order states that students will undergo combat, tactical,
fire, engineering, military medical, and technical training as well as
learn general military regulations.[84]
The
Russian State Duma will likely consider a bill that would ease firearms
restrictions for Russian combat veterans despite continued reports of
Russian combat veterans committing violent crimes. The State Duma
deputies from the Kremlin’s ruling United Russia Party are preparing a
bill that would allow Russian combat veterans to purchase firearms
without demonstrating prior weapons experience or undergoing training as
current Russian laws on civilian firearm ownership require.[85]
United Russia Duma Deputy Anatoly Vyborny noted that Russia already has
exceptions to some to some firearm ownership requirements for
active-duty military personnel, security forces, and representatives
within agencies linked with Russia’s Ministry of Justice.[86]
ISW previously reported that Russian veterans are increasingly
committing violent crimes upon returning from the war in Ukraine,
including a combat veteran who was detained for attacking his neighbors
in Atkharsk, Saratov Oblast, less than a week after returning from
Ukraine on November 13.[87]
Russian
Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological
innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)
Nothing significant to report.
Activities
in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate
administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian
citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance
systems)
The Russian government and Russian
occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport children in occupied
Ukraine to Russia under the rubric of educational programs. The Kherson
Oblast occupation administration announced on November 16 that the Main
Central Office of the Russian Movement of Children and Youth organized a
four-day trip for children from occupied Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast, to
attend the International Exhibition and Forum in Moscow.[88]
The
Russian government and occupation authorities continue efforts to
indoctrinate students in occupied Ukraine. The Kherson Oblast occupation
administration announced on November 16 that the Russian Ministry of
Digital Development is offering discounts on public transit, concerts,
museums and other cultural events to students enrolled in institutions
of higher education though an online portal, likely in an effort to
incentivize enrollment into Russian higher education institutions.[89]
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 16 that Russian
Federal Security Service (FSB) personnel and members of the newly
created Kherson Oblast occupation commission on parental rights are
“checking the living conditions” of children living in occupied Kherson
Oblast to ensure that children are enrolled in schools run by the
Russian occupation administration and are not participating in Ukrainian
remote learning.[90]
Russian Information Operations and Narratives
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to posture as an
effective security partner to Asian-Pacific states. Russian Deputy
Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin spoke at the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Plus meeting in Jakarta,
Indonesia, on November 16, where he met with ASEAN member state
officials to discuss bilateral military cooperation and multilateral
security cooperation on regional issues.[91]
Chechen
Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues messaging about the Russian war
in Ukraine to appeal to his Chechen constituency. Kadyrov again framed
the Russian war in Ukraine as a “holy jihad” for Muslims during a
conference on spiritual and moral values in Grozny, Chechen Republic, on
November 16.[92]
Kadyrov has been attempting to balance appeals to both his domestic
Chechen constituency and Russian ultranationalists in recent weeks.
Significant
activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence
in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable
frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)
Nothing significant to report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
[1] https://t.me/kpszsu/7544 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl
[2] https://t.me/kpszsu/7544
[3] https://www.rbc dot ua/rus/news/okupanti-zminili-taktiku-dronovih-atak-skilki-1700117549.html?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=post
[4] https://suspilne dot media/618147-rosiu-viklucili-z-vikonavcoi-radi-unesko-lvivska-politehnika-zvilnila-irinu-farion-631-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1700124691&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
[5] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/930813
[6] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/930813
[7] http://cfo.gov dot ru/spisokregionov/
[8] https://minre.gov dot ua/2023/11/13/ekonomichna-ta-vijskova-pidtrymka-nashyh-partneriv-dopomozhe-ukrayini-uspishno-projty-najblyzhchu-zymu/
[9] https://suspilne dot media/615503-ukrainski-vijskovi-sprobuut-vimoroziti-okupantiv-perebivsi-logisticni-lancuzki-zsu/
[11] https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/2954 ; https://t.me/diomeddog/1217
[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar110823
[13] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/104003; https://t.me/rybar/54256: https://t.me/SolovievLive/221984 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/30929 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/29138 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13518 ; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/12037 ; https://t.me/arbat/1744
[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20December%2021.pdf
[16] https://thebell dot io/kto-vedet-voennyy-telegram-kanal-rybar-rassledovanie-the-bell
[17] https://t.me/rybar/38565; https://t.me/rybar/40667
[18] https://thebell dot io/kto-vedet-voennyy-telegram-kanal-rybar-rassledovanie-the-bell
[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-20
[20] https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15716
[21] https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15716
[22] https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15711 ; https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15713
[23] https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15711 ; https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15713
[24] https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-193-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
[25] https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-193-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
[26] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLpP7cniI8k&ab_channel=CNN
[27] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-28-2023: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-4:
[28] https://t.me/energoatom_ua/15711; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2023; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023
[30] https://www.icij.org/investigations/cyprus-confidential/cyprus-russia-eu-secrecy-tax-haven/
[31] https://www.icij.org/investigations/cyprus-confidential/cyprus-russia-eu-secrecy-tax-haven/
[32] https://www.icij.org/investigations/cyprus-confidential/cyprus-model-politics-tax-haven-russian-wealth/
[33] https://www.gazprom-media dot com/ru/media/gazprom-media-holding-stal-vladelcem-kontroliruyushchey-doli-krupneyshego-v-rossii-blogerskogo-agentstva-insayt-lyudi
[34] https://t.me/sotaproject/69422
[35] https://www.gazprom-media dot com/ru/about/leadership/?leader=1002
[36] http://www.forbes dot ru/news/332671-patrushev-mladshii-stal-aktsionerom-gazproma ;
https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/11750475 ; https://thebarentsobserver dot com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/08/patrushev-family-lays-heavy-hand-arctic-energy
[37] https://meduza dot io/news/2023/11/16/v-stavropolskom-krae-nashli-mertvym-byvshego-komanduyuschego-6-y-armiey-vvs-i-pvo; https://t.me/bazabazon/22981; https://ria dot ru/20231116/sviridov-1909791540.html; https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/6338739; https://t.me/sotaproject/69430 ; https://t.me/mobilizationnews/16449
[38] https://www.gazeta dot ru/social/2023/11/16/17878543.shtml
[39] https://t.me/readovkanews/69459 ; https://t.me/kazachestvo_ru/845 ; https://vk dot com/public203702449
[40] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/56685
[41] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02c2zvYSoNb2NYEqikzzHx11xQmpAU8FuYYMeDnjCuBqF5QX4kNj5zeN1xSa58fag7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02gaCK6siDxZcU1i9Nw9h5wDxQu9Z6QkR5jk7vWNy5vsWE7VFztEXrNWoe86HaVFujl
[42] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/12298
[43] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/15109 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war
[45] https://t.me/mod_russia/32530 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/32533
[46] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02c2zvYSoNb2NYEqikzzHx11xQmpAU8FuYYMeDnjCuBqF5QX4kNj5zeN1xSa58fag7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02gaCK6siDxZcU1i9Nw9h5wDxQu9Z6QkR5jk7vWNy5vsWE7VFztEXrNWoe86HaVFujl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl
[48] https://t.me/dva_majors/29087 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/12298 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/4797
[49] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/4797
[51] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02c2zvYSoNb2NYEqikzzHx11xQmpAU8FuYYMeDnjCuBqF5QX4kNj5zeN1xSa58fag7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02gaCK6siDxZcU1i9Nw9h5wDxQu9Z6QkR5jk7vWNy5vsWE7VFztEXrNWoe86HaVFujl
[53] https://t.me/readovkanews/69426
[55] https://t.me/rybar/54232 ; https://t.me/rybar/54231 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/12298 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/16464 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/29087 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/4798
[56] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/4798 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/56732 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/4789 ; https://t.me/rybar/54260
[58] https://t.me/rybar/54232 ; https://t.me/rybar/54231 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/16464 ; https://t.me/readovkanews/69426
[59] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02c2zvYSoNb2NYEqikzzHx11xQmpAU8FuYYMeDnjCuBqF5QX4kNj5zeN1xSa58fag7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02gaCK6siDxZcU1i9Nw9h5wDxQu9Z6QkR5jk7vWNy5vsWE7VFztEXrNWoe86HaVFujl
[60] https://t.me/wargonzo/16464
[62] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02c2zvYSoNb2NYEqikzzHx11xQmpAU8FuYYMeDnjCuBqF5QX4kNj5zeN1xSa58fag7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02gaCK6siDxZcU1i9Nw9h5wDxQu9Z6QkR5jk7vWNy5vsWE7VFztEXrNWoe86HaVFujl
[65] https://x.com/Militarylandnet/status/1725059141620691004?s=20; https://x.com/blinzka/status/1725080979428065747?s=20
[66] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02c2zvYSoNb2NYEqikzzHx11xQmpAU8FuYYMeDnjCuBqF5QX4kNj5zeN1xSa58fag7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02gaCK6siDxZcU1i9Nw9h5wDxQu9Z6QkR5jk7vWNy5vsWE7VFztEXrNWoe86HaVFujl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl
[71] https://t.me/wargonzo/16464 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/29087 ; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/12298 ; https://t.me/readovkanews/69426; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/56699
[73] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1406
[74] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0qVR5Xw329aRpisDeRpsZvUAXFz3L9h4ff6YCXU3Y2voKq6FTuqZwoh81QpZ6xyMEl
[75] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1406
[76] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1406
[78] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/12298 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/29120 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/29087
[79] https://t.me/dontstopwar/11868; https://x.com/John20230/status/1725085961548083613?s=20; https://x.com/John20230/status/1725086127072083968?s=20
[81] https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/12298
[82] https://suspilne dot media/618561-ukraina-perehopila-u-rosii-iniciativu-v-cornomu-mori-zelenskij/
[83] https://www.moscowtimes dot ru/2023/11/15/v-rossiiskih-shkolah-nachnut-uchit-hodit-stroem-strelyat-i-vesti-boi-a113255
[84] https://t.me/severrealii/21308; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/19286345
[85] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13514; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/12012 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/30914 ; https://iz dot ru/1605849/natalia-bashlykova/tut-takoe-dulo-veteranam-razreshat-pokupat-oruzhie-bez-stazha-i-obucheniia
[86] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13514; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/12012 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/30914 ; https://iz dot ru/1605849/natalia-bashlykova/tut-takoe-dulo-veteranam-razreshat-pokupat-oruzhie-bez-stazha-i-obucheniia
[87] https://meduza dot io/news/2023/11/16/v-saratovskoy-oblasti-za-napadenie-na-sosedey-zaderzhali-vernuvshegosya-iz-ukrainy-voennogo-pered-etim-on-provel-urok-razgovory-o-vazhnom-v-mestnoy-shkole; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Oct%205%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF_0.pdf ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023
[88] https://t.me/VGA_Kherson/15493 ; https://expo.vdnh dot ru/calendar/gostevye-proekty/mezhdunarodnaya-vystavka-forum-rossiya-na-vdnkh/
[89] https://t.me/VGA_Kherson/15485 ; https://t.me/mintsifry/2051
[90] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/na-tot-hersonshhyny-okupanty-znovu-pogrozhuyut-vidbyraty-batkivski-prava/
[91] https://t.me/mod_russia/32545
[92] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4147