ISW Blog: Iran Update, September 13, 2023

Andie Parry, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions.

Key Takeaways

Pro-Syrian regime forces fired at and injured three protesters at the Baath party headquarters in Suwayda City in southern Syria. The attack could fuel popular anger toward pro-regime forces, especially Iranian-backed militias, in southern Syria in the coming days.
Senior Iranian officials continue to indicate that the Iraqi central government will address their security concerns in Iraqi Kurdistan by their September 19 deadline, making a potential Iranian attack on Iraqi Kurdistan unlikely in the coming days. Iran is nevertheless retaining the option to conduct attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan to address its concerns.
The IRGC has distributed small arms to current and former members in Saghez, Kurdistan Province in recent days to prepare for potential protests, according to Norway-based human rights organization Hengaw.

Iranian Activities in the Levant

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Pro-Syrian regime forces fired at and injured three protesters at the Baath party headquarters in Suwayda City in southern Syria on September 13.[1] The attack is the first well-documented instance of pro-regime forces using violence against protesters in Suwayda since the protests erupted in mid-August 2023. The attack failed to meaningfully reduce protest turnout, as protesters continued to demonstrate and even closed Baath party headquarters in other nearby towns after the attack.[2]

The attack could fuel popular anger toward pro-regime forces, especially Iranian-backed militias, in southern Syria in the coming days. A local Druze leader called for “jihad” against Iranian-backed militias in response to the shooting.[3] Protesters and other Druze sheikhs have blamed Iranian-backed militias for the crackdown as well.[4] These accusations are particularly noteworthy given that the Druze community has played a significant role in leading the current wave of protests. These accusations also follow several reports of Iranian-backed militants traveling to southern Syria in recent weeks to subvert and violently suppress the protests.[5]

Iranian Activities in Iraq

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout Iraq. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Senior Iranian officials continue to indicate that the Iraqi central government will address their security concerns in Iraqi Kurdistan by their September 19 deadline, making a potential Iranian attack into Iraqi Kurdistan unlikely in the coming days. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein in Tehran on September 13 and stated afterward that Baghdad will fully implement the joint security agreement in the coming days.[6] The agreement stipulates that Iraqi authorities will disarm and relocate anti-Iranian regime Kurdish militias operating in Iraqi Kurdistan who Iranian leaders have repeatedly accused these groups of stoking unrest within Iran and especially among the Iranian Kurdish community.[7] Iranian leadership has threatened to conduct attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan if Iraqi authorities do not address Iranian security concerns by fully implementing the security agreement by September 19. Abdollahian acknowledged Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Government efforts to remove Kurdish opposition groups from the border with Iran in a statement on September 11.[8] He later thanked Hussein during their meeting on September 13 for removing Kurdish opposition groups from the Iranian border and voiced his hope that the two countries would continue the path of diplomacy.[9]

Iran may conduct attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan if Iranian leaders conclude that the anti-regime Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan are fueling unrest within Iran. Iranian forces conducted airstrikes into the Iraqi Kurdistan region between October and November 2022 at the height of the Masha Amini protest movement to stop a perceived threat from Kurdish separatist groups fueling protests within primarily Kurdish towns in western Iran.[10] The IRGC Ground Forces deployed units, including artillery elements, to unspecified locations in northwestern Iran to promote border stability, according to Iranian state media on September 13.[11] Iranian state media framed the deployments as part of the Iranian leaders’ repeated commitment to conduct attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan if Iraqi authorities do not fully implement the security agreement.[12] Iran will not likely conduct attacks, however, because CTP has not yet observed these conditions. Planned protests in Iran to celebrate the anniversary of Masha Amini’s death on September 16 could create such conditions, however, as CTP previously assessed.[13]

Iranian Domestic and Political Affairs

This section covers factors and trends affecting regime decision-making and stability. CTP will cover domestic politics, significant protest activity, and related issues here.

The IRGC has distributed small arms to current and former members in Saghez, Kurdistan Province in recent days to prepare for potential protests, according to Norway-based human rights organization Hengaw.[14] The group previously reported that the Iranian regime recalled retired IRGC and Basij members to service ahead of the one-year anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death on September 16.[15]Protest organizations have planned anti-regime demonstrations in Iran to commemorate the occasion. The reported security measures are consistent with CTP’s assessment that regime security forces may violently suppress protests that erupt in northwestern Iran in the coming days.[16] The regime has securitized cities in northwestern Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces and sent additional military equipment to these areas in recent weeks.[17]

[1] https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid02NLneEtdpxrVN5owYjB2fpxXe... ; https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid0EaBrFuVswTjzW373EkyQCBRZH...

[2] ttps://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid0tWzNY4vASpPyCAB23wsjEfUNH6dH6CJ3s... ; https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid02PfnF7miwTk7uq8Jjoqmu4UdL... ; https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid02NsNDRdxiuXQvU38Yxgiq6xWN... ; https://www.facebook.com/alraased/posts/pfbid02UHnK5tCmqhdUDSMMdcgU5i2uw...

[3] https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/videos/821774222955471/?__cft__[0]=AZ... ; https://orient-news dot net/ar/news_show/205547

[4] https://orient-news dot net/ar/news_show/205547 https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid02X5daQEimgdtC7z8DUHemA9Fg... ; https://www.facebook.com/alraased/posts/pfbid02ZhKnYygq2nYEQzKmcLTFsSw5A...

[5] https://deirezzor24 dot net/en/the-iranian-revolutionary-guard-militia-relocates-a-huge-number-of-its-elements-outside-deir-ezzor/ ; https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/31/9557; https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/28/9537 ; https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/09/07/9616

[6] https://www dot irna.ir/news/85227830/%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%82%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C ; https://www dot tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1402/06/22/2955761/%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B5%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%B9-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%85-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%AE%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%88%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%88-%D8%AF%D9%85%D9%88%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B2-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82 ; https://www dot shafaq.com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA-%D9%83%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7 ; https://www dot ina.iq/193443--.html

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/world/middleeast/iran-kurds-iraq.html ; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/21/iran-attacks-positions-in-nort... ; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/13/missiles-hit-iraqs-kurdish-capi... ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-starts-relocating-iranian... ; https://www.alaraby dot co.uk/politics/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%88%D8%B7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9

[8] https://www dot tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1402/06/20/2954568/%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A2%D8%B0%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D9%85-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%B9-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%86%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%B4%D8%AF ; https://www dot irna.ir/news/85225289/%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A8%D8%A7%DA%A9%D9%88-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%B5%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85

[9] https://www dot irna.ir/news/85227830/%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%82%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C

[11] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/22/2955761 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/22/2955640

[12] https://www.alaraby dot co.uk/politics/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%88%D8%B7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/04/20/2924321/ ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/22/2955761 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/22/2955640 ; https://amwaj dot media/media-monitor/iraqi-pm-on-iran-charm-offensive-as-deadline-to-disarm-kurdish-groups-looms

[13] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-12-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-6-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-25-2023

[14] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1701866499302912086

[15] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1701554944124317828

[16] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-12-2023

[17] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1694692803798794393 ;

https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1692466035981455534