Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna More, Amin Soltani and Kitaneh Fitzpatrick
May 1, 2023, 5:00 pm ET
The Iran Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.
Iranian leadership dismissed several economic officials and emphasized fighting corruption between April 27 and May 1 to improve Iran’s economy, which is very unlikely to precipitate the meaningful economic change necessary to curb inflation and stabilize the Iranian rial. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on parliament and the Raisi administration to fight economic corruption during a meeting with workers, labor organization members, and Raisi administration officials on April 29.[1] President Ebrahim Raisi has engaged in numerous symbolic economic engagements in recent days. Raisi dismissed 15 unspecified managers in Khuzestan Province to demonstrate his administration’s “intolerance” of corruption during a two-day trip to this province on April 27-28.[2] Raisi additionally ordered the formation of a working group on April 30 to “follow up on the issues” raised by Khamenei in his April 29 meeting with workers without providing further details.[3] Raisi called on his administration to address the needs of contract workers and retirees—who have organized widespread strikes and protests in recent weeks—during a MAPNA Company event for International Workers’ Day on May 1.[4]
Parliament separately impeached Industry, Mines, and Trade
Minister Reza Fatemi Amin on April 30.[5] Several
parliamentarians accused Amin of mismanaging the automobile industry and of
involvement in a corruption scandal.[6] Parliament
previously attempted but failed to impeach Amin in November 2022.[7] President
Ebrahim Raisi appointed Mehdi Niazi—who previously served as Industry, Mines,
and Trade Deputy Minister—to replace Amin.[8] Amin’s
impeachment follows the dismissal of numerous Raisi administration economic
officials--including Program and Budgeting Organization Chief Massoud Mir
Kazemi, Agricultural Jihad Minister Javad Sadati Nejad, state-affiliated
Innovation and Prosperity Fund President Ali Vahdat, and Central Bank of Iran Chief
Ali Salehabadi--in recent months.[9] Reformist
politicians suggested that Fatemi Amin’s impeachment would not improve Iran’s
deteriorating economic conditions without meaningful changes to Iran’s economic
ecosystem.[10] Former Rouhani administration
Spokesperson Ali Rabie wrote an op-ed in reformist-aligned Etemad
Online stressing that Iran must address economic corruption through
structural reforms and programs on April 30. Parliamentarian Jalil Rahimi Jahan
Abadi similarly stated that fundamental issues with Iran’s economic policies
had created “victims” of presidential administrations. Former Industry, Mines,
and Trade Minister under then-President Ali Khamenei and reformist politician
Mostafa Hashemi Taba separately criticized parliament and the Raisi
administration of tackling “superficial” problem sets instead of furthering
Iran’s strategic priorities.
Increasingly dire economic conditions in Iran require
fundamental economic reform, not symbolic and superficial solutions. The Iranian rial depreciated to
556,500 rials to one US dollar on May 1, marking a nearly 10-percent reduction
in the value of the rial in the past month.[11] The Financial
Times separately reported on May 1 that the Statistical Center of Iran
has withheld publishing national inflation data for two months, possibly to
conceal evidence of increasing prices. The Financial Times added
that Iran’s inflation rate may have surpassed 49 percent, the highest ever
recorded inflation rate in Iran, within the past two months. Raisi’s visit to
MAPNA—an industrial conglomerate with links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC)—on May 1 indicates Raisi’s reticence towards such reform.
Improving Iran’s economy would require limiting the disproportional and
disruptive influence that companies like MAPNA have on Iran’s economy rather
than supporting and encouraging these companies’ activities.
The regime’s failure to address workers’ demands will
likely fuel further economically motivated strikes and protests, which may in
turn exacerbate Iran’s economic situation by disrupting production and economic
transactions. Regime officials and
employers have responded to workers’ demands for better living conditions with
repression instead of empathy. Managers of the Chavar Petrochemical Company in
Ilam Province prevented 200 workers who recently participated in economic
protests from entering the company’s petrochemical complex on May 1.[12] Pars Special Economic Energy Zone CEO Sakhavat Asadi
separately threatened to dismiss workers who participate in strikes on April
28, as CTP previously reported.[13] The
Free Union of Iranian Workers announced that Iranian authorities had summoned
at least 50 labor activists in Tehran, Kurdistan, and Gilan Provinces ahead of
International Workers’ Day.[14]
IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami appointed
Brigadier General Abdol Reza Abed as Khatam al Anbiya Construction Headquarters
Commander on May 1, possibly signaling the IRGC’s efforts to strengthen its
role in the Iranian economy.[15] The
Khatam al Anbiya Construction Headquarters is the IRGC’s engineering and
development firm. The company oversees large-scale civil-military construction
projects. The regime also uses the Headquarters to circumvent international
economic sanctions.[16] Salami reported during Abed’s
introduction ceremony that the Raisi administration had granted 30 major
economic projects to the headquarters within the past year and agreed to
provide further contracts on a weekly basis.[17] Iranian
state-media highlighted Abed’s success as the Khatam al Anbiya Construction
Headquarters commander from 2005 to 2008 and his ability to combat economic
sanctions.[18] Abed also has experience as an
executive in the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries.
Salami likely considers Abed to be an appropriate leader
for the Khatam al Anbiya Construction Headquarters amid recent intra-regime
discussions about privatization, as CTP previously reported.[19] Some regime officials have suggested that parastatal
organizations, including the IRGC, should reduce their role in the Iranian
economy in favor of privately owned firms.[20] Abed’s
appointment and Salami’s statements indicates the IRGC aims to preserve its
involvement in the economy.
Key Takeaways
- Iranian leadership emphasized fighting corruption and dismissed several economic officials between April 27 and May 1 in a purported effort to improve Iran’s economy, although these actions will not likely precipitate meaningful economic change.
- IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami appointed Brigadier General Abdol Reza Abed as Khatam al Anbiya Construction Headquarters Commander on May 1, possibly signaling the IRGC’s efforts to strengthen its role in the Iranian economy.
- At least one protest occurred on April 29, at least 11 protests occurred in 10 cities across nine provinces on April 30, and at least 12 protests occurred in 12 cities across nine provinces on May 1.
- CTP recorded poisoning incidents in two provinces on April 29, one province on April 30, and three provinces on May 1.
- The New York Times reported that Former Deputy Defense Minister Alireza Akbari, whom Iranian authorities executed for espionage on January 11, 2023, provided the UK with intelligence on Iranian nuclear and military programs for over a decade.
- An unidentified assailant stabbed an unspecified cleric in Qom City, Qom Province on April 29.
- Unidentified assailants shot and killed Saravan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province Law Enforcement Command Criminal Investigation Chief Alireza Shahraki.
- Iranian authorities installed barriers to further segregate men and women in Tehran metros carts on April 30.
- Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval discussed Indian-Iranian economic cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on May 1.
- Saudi Arabia evacuated Iranian citizens fleeing Sudan on May 1.
- Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on suspected Iranian-affiliated targets in Homs Province on April 28.
- Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on April 29.
- Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba released a series of statements echoing rhetoric from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Coordination Framework leadership held a meeting on May 1 with Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani and Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al Halbousi.
Internal Security and Protest Activity
At least one protest occurred on April 29. CTP assesses with low confidence that one protest occurred in the following location:
Tehran City, Tehran Province[21]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Foreign teachers
At least 11 protests occurred in 10 cities across nine provinces on April 30. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:
Esfahan City, Esfahan Province[22]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Social security retirees
Rasht, Gilan Province[23]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Social security retirees
Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province[24]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Social security retirees
Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province[25]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Social security retirees
Haft Tappeh, Khuzestan Province[26]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Haft Tappeh factory workers
- Notes: Strike and protest
Arak, Markazi Province[27]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Social security retirees
Tehran City, Tehran Province[28]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Air traffic control employees
- Notes: Strike and protest
CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:
Shiraz, Fars Province[29]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Nurses
Torbat-e Jam, Khorasan Razavi Province[30]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Individuals protesting welfare
Babol, Mazandaran Province[31]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Tehran City, Tehran Province[32]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Social security retirees
At least 12 protests occurred in 12 cities across nine provinces on May 1. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:
Rasht, Gilan Province[33]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Gheshm Island, Hormozgan Province[34]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Petrochemical workers
Kerman City, Kerman Province[35]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province[36]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province[37]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Shoush, Khuzestan Province[38]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:
Marivan, Kurdistan Province[39]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Association of laborers and construction workers
Sari, Mazandaran Province[40]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Shahriar, Tehran Province[41]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Retirees
Tehran, Tehran Province
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Anti-regime protesters
Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province[42]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Nurses
Kamyaran, Kurdistan Province[43]
- Size: Small
- Demographic: Construction Workers
CTP recorded poisoning incidents in two provinces on April 29, one province on April 30, and three provinces on May 1.
The New York Times reported that Former Deputy Defense Minister Alireza
Akbari, whom Iranian authorities executed for espionage on January 11, 2023,
provided the UK with intelligence on Iranian nuclear and military programs for
over a decade.[44] The Times wrote that
Akbari forged close relationships with Supreme National Security Council
Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani and Chief Nuclear Scientist Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh, whom Israel assassinated in 2020. Akbari reportedly provided
initial intelligence on the existence of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in
Qom Province.
An unidentified assailant stabbed an unspecified cleric in
Qom City, Qom Province on April 29. An unidentified man shot and killed Shia cleric and
Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani in a bank in Babolsar,
Mazandaran Province on April 26, as CTP previously reported.[45] Social media users separately circulated footage of an
unidentified driver purportedly running over a cleric in Tehran City, Tehran
Province on April 27.
Unidentified assailants shot and killed Saravan, Sistan and
Baluchistan Province Law Enforcement Command Criminal Investigation Chief
Alireza Shahraki.[46] The assailants also injured Shahraki’s
wife.
Iranian authorities installed barriers to further segregate
men and women in Tehran metros cars on April 30.[47] Metro
and Suburban Operation Company CEO Masoud Dorosti defended criticisms of the
barriers’ design—which featured flowers—and stated that the barriers aimed to
reinforce gender segregation in the Tehran metro by discouraging men from
entering women’s carts. Iranian social media users separately circulated
footage of Iranian men and unveiled women on motorcycles--flouting segregation
and mandatory veiling laws--in Tehran on April 29.[48]
Economic Affairs
See topline text.
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval discussed
Indian-Iranian economic cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on
May 1.[49] Doval discussed the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and India’s investment in the Chabahar, Sistan
and Baluchistan Province port with Supreme National Security Council Secretary
Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani. Shamkhani stressed the need to create a
“Rial-Rupee” trading mechanism. Doval separately met with Foreign Affairs
Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian to discuss bilateral relations on the same
date.
Saudi Arabia evacuated Iranian citizens fleeing Sudan on
May 1. The Saudi navy carried 65
Iranian citizens from Port Sudan to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.[50]
External Security and Military Affairs
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on
Iranian-affiliated targets in Homs Province on April 28.[51] Syrian and Israeli media outlets claimed the IDF air
strike targeted convoy of fuel trucks at a fuel station on the M5 highway
reportedly transporting Iranian arms into Syria according to Israeli social
media accounts.[52] CTP cannot independently
verify these claims. UK-based news outlet Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights reported that the IDF also targeted a LH weapons depot at
Dabaa Military Airport.[53] The IDF last targeted
Iranian-backed positions in Homs Province on April 1.[54]
Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid met with Iranian Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on April 29.[55] Khamenei
emphasized expanding ties between Iran and Iraq.[56] He
claimed that Iraq‘s ties to Iran have prevented the country from sliding back
to conditions seen under Saddam Hussein. Khamenei also called for the Iraqi
government to expel all Americans from Iraq claiming that the US is not an ally
of Iraq.[57] Rashid and Raisi held a joint
press conference and discussed removing the US from Iraq.[58] Raisi
also called for the Iraqi government to fully implement the security memorandum
of understanding the countries signed on March 19 outlining additional security
measures in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba
released a series of statements echoing rhetoric from Iranian Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Akram Kaabi claimed that
the Popular Mobilization Forces -- a group of loosely aligned militias
ostensibly reporting to the Popular Mobilization Commission -- had successfully
blocked Coalition forces from southern Iraq and were capable of targeting US
forces in northern Iraq. He argued that despite the US presence, Iraqis in
northern Iraq were immune to the soft war that the US is waging. “Soft war” is
an Iranian doctrinal term used to describe nonmilitary means that the West uses
to erode legitimacy of the Iranian regime and foment domestic opposition while
spreading Western values.[59]
Coordination Framework leadership held a meeting on May 1
with Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani and Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al
Halbousi.[60] Leadership agreed to
conclude negotiations on the 2023-2025 budget by May 10, to move forward with
planned ministerial changes, and to hold local elections by the end of 2023.
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[58] https://president dot ir/fa/143577
[59] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-february-3-2023
[60] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B2%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%86%D8%AC%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%AA%D8%B6%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A7-%D9%84-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%883-%D9%85%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%87 ;
https://www.ninanews dot com/Website/News/Details?key=1050476 ;
https://www.ina dot iq/184090--.html