Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 13, 5:30 PM ET
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the
Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with
support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via
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Expanding protests could strain Iranian state security services
beyond their capabilities to respond in the coming days. Anti-regime protest organizations and social media accounts
have called for protests in Khuzestan Province on October 14 and throughout the
country on October 15. A group called the Youth of the Whole Country, which
began tweeting on October 11, has repeated these calls and stated that it seeks
to overthrow the regime.[1] The group added that it has coordinated with local protest
leaders throughout Iran. Numerous other Persian-language social media accounts
with similar naming conventions are circulating on Twitter, claiming to
represent Iranian protesters in cities across the country.[2] The Youth of
Tehran Neighborhoods tweeted that the October 15 demonstrations will be “the
beginning of the end [for the regime].”[3]
CTP
cannot verify that the authenticity of these groups or their claims to be
leading protests in Iran. The Youth of the Whole Country notably states that
its members are inside and outside Iran.[4] These
calls for protests on October 14 and 15 will likely bring more Iranians onto
the streets in any event.
Such
a scenario would strain the regime’s capability to suppress protests in major
cities and border regions at the same time. The regime relies on relatively
small numbers highly ideologically committed and well-trained security units
for protest crackdowns, which introduces a vulnerability in the security
apparatus: Iranian leaders do not have enough of these forces to cover all of
Iran.[5] The regime has historically shuffled these elite security
forces around the country to where they are needed most—typically the restive
border regions. The regime has conducted brutal crackdowns on demonstrators in
northwestern Kurdistan Province and southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan
Province in recent weeks and is likely focused on preventing any insurgent
groups from gaining traction in these regions. The regime may face the added
pressure of trying to control protests in Khuzestan Province, where anti-regime
violence is common, on October 14 and in major cities across Iran on October
15.
Simultaneous
protests across Iran—in major cities and the border regions—could overwhelm
security forces and prevent them from being able to control demonstrations in some
locations. Such a scenario will not likely collapse the regime in itself, but
it would certainly pressure it significantly.
Key
Takeaways
· Expanding protests could strain Iranian state
security services beyond their capabilities to respond in the coming days
· Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17
cities in 12 provinces.
· The Iraqi parliament elected Kurdish
compromise candidate Abdul Latif Rashid as president.
Anti-Regime
Protests
Anti-regime
protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 12 provinces on October 13. Social
media reports suggest that commercial and industrial strikes continued in
cities throughout Bushehr, Hormozgan, Kerman, Khuzestan, Kurdistan and Tehran
Provinces,[6] marking four days since oil and petrochemical workers in
Bushehr and Khuzestan joined strikes and anti-regime protests.[7] CTP
assesses with moderate or high confidence that protests occurred in the
following locations:
·
Karaj, Alborz Province
·
Najafabad, Esfahan Province
·
Ilam City, Ilam Province
·
Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province
·
Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
·
Baneh, Kurdistan Province
·
Marivan, Kurdistan Province
·
Saghez, Kurdistan Province
·
Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
·
Arak, Markazi Province
·
Mirjaveh, Sistan and Baluchistan Province
·
Tehran City, Tehran Province
·
Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province
·
Mahabad, West Azerbaijan
·
Abhar, Zanjan Province
·
Zanjan City, Zanjan Province
CTP
assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:
· Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province
The
Iranian regime continues to violently suppress and arrest protestors,
specifically in Kurdistan Province, as anti-regime demonstrations approach
their twenty-first consecutive day. Social media users
continue to report lethal violence used against protestors, and Amnesty
International claimed that Iranian security personnel have killed at least 23
children since protests began on September 16.[8]
A
Kurdish human rights group reported that Iranian authorities have arrested more
than 2,180 people in Kurdistan Province since September 16.[9] Security
and intelligence officials have additionally arrested over 30 oil and
petrochemical workers participating in strikes and anti-regime demonstrations
since strikes began on October 10.[10] Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pardoned and or commuted 1,862 prisoners’
sentences, including 218 prisoners with “security-related” charges on October
13.[11] His website framed the pardons as a commemoration of the
Prophet Mohammad birthday and Imam Jafar Sadegh.[12] Such
pardons as part of commemorations are normal.
Senior
Iranian officials rhetorically escalated against the US and its allies on
October 13, echoing Khamenei’s comments blaming Iran’s enemies for ongoing
protests on October 12.[13] IRGC
Commander Hossein Salami and IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh framed ongoing protests as an ideological war
driven by the US, the UK, Israel, and Saudi Arabia in meetings with university
professors on October 13.[14] Hajizadeh added
that Iran was monitoring its enemies’ military and defense capabilities.[15] President
Ebrahim Raisi similarly accused the US of pursuing policies aimed at
destabilizing the regime at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence
Building Measures in Asia member-state summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.[16] An
IRGC-affiliated newspaper accused British diplomat Simon Shercliff of aiming to
incite further unrest in Iran on October 13.[17] Politico similarly reported that multiple Iranian
officials had privately warned the EU against imposing protest-related
sanctions on Iran, stating that the ramifications would be “grave and that
bilateral relations may not survive it.”[18]
Axis
of Resistance and Regional Developments
The
Iraqi parliament elected Kurdish compromise candidate Abdul Latif Rashid as
president on October 13.[19] An
Iranian proxy-affiliated Telegram channel celebrated Rashid’s election.[20] Rashid
selected Mohammad Shia al Sudani, who is Iran-aligned, as the prime
minister-designate. The Shia Coordination Framework—the umbrella coalition for
Iranian-backed parties in Iraq—previously identified Sudani as their nominee.
Sudani is responsible for submitting a cabinet proposal to Parliament in 30
days. Iran will likely try to exploit Sudani’s potential premiership to expand
its political reach into Iraq after former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al
Kadhimi sought to curtail Iranian influence.
The Syrian Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement supporting the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on ongoing protests on October 13.[21] The statement expressed support for Khamenei’s leadership and the regime’s ability to overcome demonstrations. Syria additionally warned against foreign interference and demanded that Western countries drop sanctions on Iran.[22]
[1] https://twitter.com/iran_javanan/status/1580523031805714433;
https://twitter.com/iran_javanan/status/1580576767848636417.
[2] https://twitter.com/javanane_A/status/1580525135164866560
[3] https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1580595477132607488
[4] https://twitter.com/iran_javanan
[5] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-irans-shift-toward-more-oppressive-governance
[6] https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1580520286658494464; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1580542674028806144; https://twitter.com/IranNewsUpdate1/status/1580570032668434432; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1580589305923506176; https://twitter.com/IranNewsUpdate1/status/1580602571143536640;
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202210131401; https://twitter.com/bbcpersian/status/1580615368787169280
[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-10
[8] https://t dot
co/61eyYuyWOB; https://twitter.com/AmnestyIran/status/1580633290385797121?s=20&t=NbUvcZaobZi8hjqcLW8DvQ
[9] https://twitter.com/KurdistanHRN_En/status/1580523119101771776
[10] https://iranwire.com/fa/news-1/108561-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D8%B4%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%B4%D8%AF%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%87-%D8%AE%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%DB%B9%DB%B6-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF/
[11] https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1580579919590961152
[12] https://farsi.khamenei
dot ir/message-content?id=51135
[13] www.leader
dot ir/fa/content/26068
[14] https://www.isna dot
ir/news/1401072111035/%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D8%AC%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B9%DB%8C-%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%B4-%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA; https://www.tasnimnews dot
com/fa/news/1401/07/21/2787628/%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AC%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1%DA%AF%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D9%85
[15] https://www.tasnimnews dot
com/fa/news/1401/07/21/2787628/%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AC%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1%DA%AF%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D9%85
[16] https://www.president
dot ir/fa/140128
[17] https://www.barrons.com/articles/britain-denies-official-s-tehran-visit-linked-to-protests-01665672907
[18] https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-menace-eu-sanction-protest-mahsa-amini-jcpoa/
[19] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rockets-hit-baghdads-green-zone-sources-2022-10-13/
