By George Barros and Mason Clark
Recent media reports about Russia withdrawing 10,000 troops from near Ukraine are inaccurate and primarily a result of misleading Western reporting, not a Russian misinformation campaign. Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) stated on December 25 that over 10,000 personnel from unspecified SMD units finished exercises in Rostov, Kuban, Crimea, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Stavropol, "in the Republics of the North Caucasus," Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and would redeploy to their permanent garrisons on December 25.[1] Kremlin media did not prominently cover the SMD announcement as it would if this were a Russian information campaign.
The
SMD statement did not frame this development as a de-escalation against Ukraine,
and in fact, stressed the high readiness level of the SMD’s forces. The
statement claims that the SMD units completed training, that the equipment they
used will be fully serviced and brought back into readiness before the end of
2021 “for further operation according to the plan for the winter training
period,” and states that SMD units will be assigned new tasks to maintain high
combat readiness to be able to respond to possible “emergency situations”
during the New Year holidays.[2]
Western
misreporting about these exercises likely began in a misleading Reuters headline. Independent
Russian news outlet Interfax accurately reported that 10,000 SMD troops
finished exercises and returned “from the field” to their permanent bases.[3] Reuters
inaccurately quoted Interfax’s report with the headline, “More
than 10,000 Russian troops returning to bases after drills near Ukraine
[emphasis added] -Interfax.”[4] Interfax
did not characterize the 10,000 troops as exercising “near Ukraine,” did not
characterize the SMD report as being a drawdown, and listed the locations where
the exercises occurred across southern Russia and the Caucuses. Other Western
media outlets ran with Reuters’ characterization of the 10,000 troops withdrawing
from “near Ukraine,” amplifying an inaccurate perception of Russia recently
reducing its force posture near Ukraine.
Russia
likely has not decreased its force posture around Ukraine. The
SMD statement did not address Russian units deployed in Yelnya, Kursk, and
Voronezh and postured against Ukraine – the bulk of the publicly observed
buildup around Ukraine since October 2021. Russian units permanently stationed
in Crimea, Rostov, and Kuban returning to their permanent garrisons are still
de facto postured against Ukraine. Motorized rifle and artillery elements of
the North Caucasus-based Russian 58th Combined Arms Army that
deployed to Crimea could remain in Crimea despite this announcement.[5]
Western
media and policymakers should scrutinize both Russian activities and how
second-hand reports may miscontextualize them. The
Kremlin benefits from Western misunderstanding of its activities. Western
reporters, analysts, and observers must scrutinize secondary and primary
reports of Russian activities to avoid inadvertently perpetuating
misunderstandings about Russian actions.
[1] https://function dot mil dot
ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12400529@egNews
[2] https://function.mil
dot ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12400529@egNews
[3] https://www.interfax
dot ru/russia/812504
[4] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/more-than-10000-russian-troops-returning-bases-after-drills-near-ukraine-2021-12-25/
