By: Mason Clark with
Aleksei Zimnitca and Nataliya Bugayova
Key Takeaway: The Kremlin is exploiting calls by the United
Nations for limited sanctions waivers to combat COVID-19, to advance the
Kremlin’s longstanding objective of removing international sanctions on Russia
and its partners. The Kremlin has launched an information campaign on this
issue and is leveraging its sanctioned allies around the world, alongside
networks of Russia-amenable actors in Europe, to amplify the Kremlin’s message.
The
Kremlin is trying to position itself for a win-win scenario – either advancing
its goal of sanctions relief or framing the US as inhumane for maintaining
sanctions during a global pandemic.
The
Kremlin began calling for sanctions relief over COVID-19 in mid-March. Prominent Russian Member of Parliament Sergei
Kosachev called on March 18 for the total removal of all economic sanctions on
Russia, except sanctions imposed by the United Nations (UN) Security Council.[1] The UN
Security Council has not imposed any sanctions on Russia, meaning the Kremlin
is essentially arguing for the lifting of all sanctions. The Kremlin is
unlikely to attempt to limit the authority of the UN Security Council due to
Russia’s status as a permanent member with veto powers. Other Russian MPs
called for sanctions removal in the following days, claiming sanctions violate
international law and are inhumane in the context of a global pandemic.[2]
The Kremlin has also called for sanctions relief for its
allies. The Russian Foreign Ministry called on the United States to lift all
sanctions on Iran on March 24.[3] Russian MPs voiced their
support on March 19 for Syrian calls to remove all Western sanctions.[4] The Kremlin is likely
leveraging other partners to reinforce its calls for sanctions relief. The
Chinese Foreign Ministry called for the removal of all sanctions on Iran on
March 16.[5] Russia and China increased diplomatic
engagement throughout March in response to the COVID-19 crisis.[6]
The
Kremlin exploited calls for limited sanctions relief by UN Secretary General
Antonio Guterres. Guterres sent
a letter to G20 leaders on March 24 calling on countries to temporarily waive
sanctions on specific industries during the COVID-19 crisis.[7] UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
Michelle Bachelet also called for authorization of humanitarian exemptions to
sanctions on essential medical equipment and supplies on March 24.[8]
The Kremlin used these
proposals as an opportunity to call for the lifting of all sanctions on Russia
and its partners. Putin called on the G20 to lift – not waive – sanctions against
unspecified countries on “essential goods” and financial transactions to
purchase these essential goods during a remote G20 meeting on March 26.[9] Russia
and six of its allies – Iran, China, Cuba, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and
North Korea – additionally issued a letter on March 26 urging Guterres to
request “the complete and immediate lifting of such illegal, coercive and
arbitrary measures of economic pressure.”[10]
Guterres has not publicly responded to the letter. The Kremlin and its allies are
attempting to exploit Guterres’s legitimate call for temporary sanctions
waivers to obtain the removal of all sanctions on malign actors without
addressing the actions that led to the imposition of sanctions. The Kremlin argues
that, due to COVID-19, all sanctions, no matter the reason for their imposition
or target, are illegitimate.
The
Kremlin is leveraging its network of Kremlin-amenable European public figures to
amplify Russia’s calls to lift sanctions. The Kremlin likely assesses its calls to lift sanctions will be more
successful if they are supported by European states, not only Russia and other
sanctioned regimes. Additionally, the EU accounts for most of the sanctions on
Russia and is a key player in sanctions against Iran and Syria. The Kremlin
media attempted in late March to portray Germany and Italy as supportive of
lifting sanctions on Russia.[11] Only three
German MPs from the Kremlin-amenable Alternative for Germany (AFD) called for
sanctions removal.[12] One
of the MPs, Waldemar Herdt, previously
traveled to Russian-occupied Crimea for an economic forum. Another AFD MP, Ulrich Oehme, may have facilitated
Russian humanitarian aid to Northern Italy.[13]
Similarly, in Italy, only an association
of international criminal lawyers, not the government, called to lift sanctions
on Russia.[14] ISW has extensively
published on the Kremlin’s efforts to leverage Kremlin-amenable politicians to
advance its campaigns in Ukraine, Syria, and elsewhere.[15]
The Kremlin will
likely attempt to provide limited aid to individual European states to convince
them to unilaterally weaken sanctions on Russia and its partners. German MP (from Angela Merkel’s CDU
party) Michael Gahler suggested on March 23 that the Kremlin sent military
specialists and humanitarian aid to Italy on March 21 to support COVID-19
containment in the hope that Italy will veto sanctions on Russia next time they
are voted on by the EU.[16]
Such deliveries are also likely intended to boost Russia’s image in Europe. However,
these efforts will likely achieve minimal results due to Russia’s limited
investment in them; Italian officials said that 80 percent of the Russian
supplies were “useless.”[17]
Nonetheless, Russia’s aid campaign
demonstrates the Kremlin’s ability to leverage human networks and political
partners from various theaters to support a specific information campaign.
The Kremlin’s push to lift sanctions
demonstrates the Kremlin’s narrative about the irrelevance or ineffectiveness
of Western sanctions is false. Vladimir Putin’s
position is that sanctions only make Russia stronger through import
substitution and economic independence.[18]
The Kremlin’s deliberate effort to use every opportunity, including COVID-19,
to weaken the sanctions regime suggests the opposite: that sanctions are a
constraint that Putin would like removed. Putin additionally needs to restore the
resources he needs to provide financial support to Russia’s key partner in the
Middle East, Iran, and Russia’s client regime in Syria to support Russia’s
objectives in the Middle East.[19]
The
US is unlikely to agree to lift sanctions on Russia and other malign actors. US President Donald Trump said he expected Putin to
ask for sanctions to be lifted but would not commit to a response prior to a
March 30 call.[20] No concrete agreement on
sanctions emerged from the call. Sanctions on Russia, Iran, North Korea, Syria,
and Venezuela are cornerstones of US policy against those actors. Several US congressional representatives called on US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to grant clearly outlined sanctions waivers for
Iran, Venezuela, and other countries badly hit by the pandemic on March 27,
similar to the proposals made by the UN.[21] The State Department has not yet responded to calls
for temporary sanctions relief.
The
Kremlin may successfully leverage international support to put the US in a
lose-lose situation in the information space. Russia failed to pass a UN General Assembly (UNGA) Declaration calling
for solidarity against COVID-19, including rejecting all unilateral sanctions,
on April 2.[22] The UNGA instead passed a
rival declaration that does not address sanctions.[23] Russia’s
delegation to the UN issued a statement calling on “the apologists of sanctions
policy” to explain their votes and pledged to continue coordination with
“like-minded states.”[24] The
Kremlin will likely continue to use the UNGA as a platform to attempt to shape
the global COVID-19 response to its own ends and attempt to portray the West,
and specifically the US, as inhumane. The US retains the ability to veto any
Russian or Chinese attempt to lift sanctions through the UN Security Council.
However, the Kremlin may attempt to create a situation where the U.S. is forced
to veto a resolution calling for sanctions removal. The Kremlin has already claimed
that sanctions are inhumane, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
going as far as to say that sanctions against Venezuela during the COVID-19 outbreak
“are turning almost into a tool of genocide.”[25] The
Kremlin and its allies are additionally ignoring US efforts to open avenues for
sanctions mitigation to combat COVID-19. The
US and Switzerland launched a humanitarian trade channel for Iran on February
27.[26]
American sanctions on Russia only target the Kremlin’s financial, energy, and
defense sectors, not health or basic goods.[27] The Kremlin has the opportunity to either achieve
reduced sanctions or score a victory in the information space.
The
West must not fall for the Kremlin’s false equivalency on sanctions relief. The Kremlin is exploiting Guterres’s reasonable
proposal of temporarily waiving sanctions on select industries to push for the
removal of all sanctions on Russia and its allies without reversing their original
malign behavior. The Kremlin chose not to engage with the UN’s proposal for
COVID-19 sanctions relief. The Kremlin is instead attempting to exploit a
global crisis to advance its own narratives on sanctions writ large. The
Kremlin and other actors are additionally exacerbating the crises through
misinformation campaigns that impede efforts to combat the virus.[28] The West
should strive to ensure a successful global response to COVID-19, but must not
fall for efforts by malign actors like the Kremlin to exploit the crisis to lift
sanctions applied for previous malign behavior.
[1] [“Kosachev
Believes that Amid Coronavirus and Currency Fluctuations, Sanctions should be Lifted,”]
TASS, March 18, 2020, https://tass((.))ru/ekonomika/8012561; [“Kosachev Urged
to Lift All Sanctions in the World Because of COVID-19,”] Gazeta, March 18,
2020, https://www.gazeta((.))ru/politics/news/2020/03/18/n_14174197.shtml.
[2] [“Slutsky
Called the Position of Ukraine on Anti-Russian Sanctions Selfish,”] Ria News,
March 19, 2020, https://ria((.))ru/20200319/1568844960.html; https://ria((.))ru/20200324/1569081128.html.
[3] [“About
the Telephone Conversation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian
Federation Sergei Lavrov with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran M.D.
Zarif,”] Russian MFA, March 24, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/maps/ir/-/asset_publisher/HUPBmpXjn4Ob/content/id/4092057.
[4] [“The
State Duma Called for Lifting Sanctions Against Syria Because of the
Coronavirus,”] Ria Novosti, March 19, 2020, https://ria((.))ru/20200319/1568864253.html.
[5] [“China
Called for Lifting Sanctions on Iran in Pandemic,”] Ria Novosti, March 16,
2020, https://ria((.))ru/20200316/1568656298.html.
[6] [“About
the Meeting of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia I.V. Morgulov
with the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of the People’s Republic
of China in Russia Zhang Hanhui,”] Russian MFA, March 2, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/maps/cn/-/asset_publisher/WhKWb5DVBqKA/content/id/4067203;
[“About the Telephone Conversation of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of
the Russian Federation I.V. Morgulov with the Deputy Minister of Foreign
Affairs of the PRC Luo Zhaohui,”] Russian MFA, March 12, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/maps/cn/-/asset_publisher/WhKWb5DVBqKA/content/id/4084864;
[“On a Telephone Conversation Between Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
People’s Republic of China Wang Yi,”] Russian MFA, March 18, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/maps/cn/-/asset_publisher/WhKWb5DVBqKA/content/id/4089923;
[“Russian MFA Information and Press Department Commentary Regarding a
Collective Appeal to the UN Secretary General Calling for Demanding the Removal
of Unilateral Sanctions in the Spread of the Coronavirus,”] Russian MFA, March
27, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/maps/cn/-/asset_publisher/WhKWb5DVBqKA/content/id/4093009;
[“On a Telephone Conversation Between Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov and a Member of the State Council, Minister of
Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China Wang Yi,”] Russian FMA, March
28, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/maps/cn/-/asset_publisher/WhKWb5DVBqKA/content/id/4093137.
[7] Colum
Lynch, “U.N. Calls for Rolling Back Sanctions to Battle Pandemic,” Foreign
Policy, March 24, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/24/un-coronavirus-cuba-iran-venezuela-north-korea-zimbabwe-sanctions-pandemic/.
[8] “Ease
Sanctions Against Countries Fighting COVID-19: UN Human Rights Chief,” UN News,
March 24, 2020, https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1060092.
[9] “Putin
Calls for Sanctions ‘Moratorium’ at G20 Summit,” Moscow Times, March 26, 2020, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/26/putin-calls-for-sanctions-moratorium-at-g20-summit-a69770.
[10] Russian
Mission UN, Twitter, March 25, 2020, https://twitter.com/RussiaUN/status/1243011675554529280
[11] [“Italy
Called for Lifting Sanctions Against Russia amid COVID-19 Pandemic,”] Izvestia,
March 21, 2020, https://iz((.))ru/989678/2020-03-21/v-italii-prizvali-sniat-sanktcii-s-rossii-na-fone-pandemii-covid-19;
[“Germany Urged to End Sanctions Against Russia to Support the Economy,” Lenta,
March 19, 2020, https://lenta((.))ru/news/2020/03/19/germ/.
[12] AFD
MP Waldemar Herdt, who called for the EU to remove sanctions on Russia on March
18, traveled to attend an economic forum in Crimea in violation of Germany’s
official position in April 2019. The other two MPs are Robby Schlund and Anton
Frizen. [“Germany Urged to End Sanctions Against Russia to Support the
Economy,” Lenta, March 19, 2020, https://lenta((.))ru/news/2020/03/19/germ/; [“Germany
Called for Lifting Sanctions Against Russia Amid the Fight Against
Coronavirus,”] Lenta, March 18, 2020, https://lenta((.))ru/news/2020/03/18/sankt/;
“Waldemar Herdt & Markus Frohnmaier: ‘Russia’s Men in the Bundestag,’ Call
for Lifting of EU Sanctions,” EU Today, March 23, 2020, https://eutoday.net/news/politics/2020/afd-russian-influence;
Austin Davis, “AfD Lawmaker to Travel to Crimea Despite International Protest,”
DW, April 17, 2019, https://www.dw.com/en/afd-lawmaker-to-travel-to-crimea-despite-international-protest/a-48357923.
[13] [“Russia
Conducted a PR Operation in Italy Thanks to Far-Right MP from Germany – Bild,”]
Ukrainskaya Pravda, March 28, 2020, https://www.pravda.com((.))ua/rus/news/2020/03/28/7245508/.
[14] [“Italy
Called for Lifting Sanctions Against Russia amid COVID-19 Pandemic,”] Izvestia,
March 21, 2020, https://iz((.))ru/989678/2020-03-21/v-italii-prizvali-sniat-sanktcii-s-rossii-na-fone-pandemii-covid-19;
[“Who We Are,”] Criminal Chambers of European and International Law, Accessed
April 3, 2020, https://www.camerepenali.org/
[15] Jennifer
Cafarella with Jason Zhou, “Russia’s Dead-End Diplomacy in Syria,” Institute
for the Study of War, November 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Report%20-%20Russia%E2%80%99s%20Dead-End%20Diplomacy%20in%20Syria%20-%20November%202019.pdf;
Fredrick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella, “Confronting the
Russian Challenge,” Institute for the Study of War, June 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20CTP%20Report%20-%20Confronting%20the%20Russian%20Challenge%20-%20June%202019.pdf;
Nataliya Bugayova, Mason Clark, and George Barros, “Putin Accelerates Ukraine
Campaign Amid Converging Crises,” Institute for the Study of War, March 24,
2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-accelerates-ukraine-campaign-amid-converging-crises.
[16] Yuri
Sheiko, [“Russia and China Help Italy in the Fight Against Coronavirus:
Nobility or PR?”] DW, March 24, 2020, https://www.dw.com/ru/рф-и-кнр-помогают-италии-в-борьбе-с-коронавирусом-благородство-или-пиар/a-52904286.
[17] Isabel
Togoh, “From Russia with Love? Putin’s Medical Supplies Gift to Coronavirus-Hit
Italy Raises Questions,” March 26, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/03/26/from-russia-with-love-putins-medical-supplies-gift-to-coronavirus-hit-italy-raises-questions/#760f1c744a47.
[18] “Vladimir
Putin’s Annual news Conference,” Kremlin, December 19, 2019, http://en.kremlin((.))ru/events/president/transcripts/press_conferences/62366.
[19] Jennifer
Cafarella with Jason Zhou, “Russia’s Dead-End Diplomacy in Syria,” Institute
for the Study of War, November 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Report%20-%20Russia%E2%80%99s%20Dead-End%20Diplomacy%20in%20Syria%20-%20November%202019.pdf;
Fredrick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella, “Confronting the
Russian Challenge,” Institute for the Study of War, June 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20CTP%20Report%20-%20Confronting%20the%20Russian%20Challenge%20-%20June%202019.pdf.
[20] [“Trump
Believes that Moscow Will Seek From Him the Lifting of Sanctions,”] TASS, March
30, 2020, https://tass((.))ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/8117241; Brett Samuels,
“Trump Says he’ll Speak with Putin on Monday,” The Hill, March 30, 2020, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490126-trump-says-hell-speak-with-putin-on-monday.
[21] Jack
Detsch, “Democrats Push back on Sanctions, Citing Coronavirus Fears,” Foreign
Policy, March 27, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/27/democrats-coronavirus-sanctions-waivers-iran-venezuela/.
[22]
[“Media Commentary on the Consideration by the UN General Assembly of the
Declaration of Solidarity in the Fight Against the Coronavirus Pandemic,”]
Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, April 2,
2020, https://russiaun((.))ru/ru/news/pressrelease_020420.
[23]
“UN Adopts Resolution Urging Global Cooperation on COVID-19,” New York Times,
April 2, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/02/world/europe/ap-un-virus-outbreak-un-resolution-.html.
[24] [“Media
Commentary on the Consideration by the UN General Assembly of the Declaration
of Solidarity in the Fight Against the Coronavirus Pandemic,”] Permanent
Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, April 2, 2020, https://russiaun((.))ru/ru/news/pressrelease_020420.
[25] [“Slutsky
Called the Position of Ukraine on Anti-Russian Sanctions Selfish,”] Ria
Novosti, March 19, 2020, https://ria((.))ru/20200319/1568844960.html; [“Mironov
Called Sanctions Amid the Coronavirus Epidemic Inappropriate,”] Ria Novosti,
March 24, 2020, https://ria((.))ru/20200324/1569081128.html; [“Briefing by
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman M.V. Zakharova, Moscow, March 27, 2020,”]
Russian MFA, March 27, 2020, https://www.mid((.))ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4093042#4.
[26] Ian
Talley, Benoit Faucon, “U.S., Swiss Formally Open Humanitarian Trade Channel to
Iran,” Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-swiss-formally-open-humanitarian-trade-channel-to-iran-11582846163.
[27] Dianne
E. Rennack, Cory Welt, “U.S. Sanctions on Russia: An Overview,” Congressional
Research Service, March 23, 2020, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10779.pdf.
[28] George
Barros, “Viral Disinformation: The Kremlin’s Coronavirus Information Operation
in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, March 11, 2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/viral-disinformation-kremlin%E2%80%99s-coronavirus-information-operation-ukraine.
