By Matti
Suomenaro, Aaron Hesse, and the ISW Research Team
The U.S. has
assessed that the
Bashar al Assad regime is responsible for a chemical weapons attack in
Damascus, Syria on April 7, 2018. The Assad-Russia-Iran coalition has been relocating
its military assets and personnel in advance of an expected U.S.-led military
operation intended to deter future use of chemical weapons. Iranian proxies are
repositioning in order to mitigate the effects of a strike. The map
accompanying the data below identifies key pro-regime military movements from April
8 – 12, 2018.
*Correction issued April 18, 2018: The map above has been updated since its original
publication on April 12, 2018. The previous iteration of the map included
ranges for two S-300 surface-to-air missile systems at Tartous and Latakia in
Syria. ISW has changed the map to reflect the updated assessment that Russia
likely had one S-300 system in Syria, based at Tartous, and that it withdrew
that system in June 2017 (Russia deployed a new S-400 system to Masyaf in the
months following this withdrawal). The previous iteration of this map also included
a note regarding Russia’s deployment of multiple additional S-300 systems at
unknown locations in Syria. ISW has removed this note based on a re-evaluation
of reporting from 2016 on Russian deployments and the updated assessment
regarding Russia’s current S-300 systems in Syria. Forthcoming ISW products will include updated
assessments of Russia’s military posture in Syria and of the movement of the
broader Russia-Iran-Bashar al Assad regime coalition’s movements since the
April 14, 2018 U.S.-U.K.-France operation in Syria.
Bashar al Assad Regime-Russia-Iran
Coalition
Two Russian Su-24M ‘Fencer’ attack aircraft conducted several low-altitude passes in
close proximity to the USS Donald Cook and the French
frigate Aquitaine in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea on April 11. The
Russian Navy conducted a firing drill off the Syrian coast in a likely
attempt to deter U.S. and allied naval maneuvers near Syria on April 11.
Russia reportedly deployed four Tu-95MS ‘Bear’ and Tu-160M
‘Blackjack’ strategic bombers as well as an unspecified number of Il-78M tanker
aircraft from the Engels Air Base in Southern Russia. Their final destination
is unknown although they may be bound for Syria or the Hamedan Air Base in Western Iran. Russia previously
targeted locations in Eastern Syria from the Engels Air Base.
Russian and regime forces enhanced the air defenses around
Syria’s capital, Damascus, where the regime conducted its chemical weapons
attack on April 7. Pro-regime forces deployed short- to medium-range surface-to-air
missiles, including six Russian Pantsir-S2s, to the Mezzeh Military Air
Base
and other sites in Damascus. Pro-regime officials also reportedly issued an
alert to the Syrian Arab Army to evacuate personnel and assets from military
bases across Syria.
Regime and Russian aircraft relocated closer to heavily-defended
commercial airfields across Syria. Aircraft relocated from the Seen (Sayqal),
Dumayr, Shayrat, and the T-4 (Tiyas) Air Bases to the Bassel al Assad
International Airport in Latakia Province, the Nayrab Air Base outside Aleppo
City, and the Damascus International Airport.
Iranian proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah, reportedly
began exiting Syria. Hezbollah reportedly relocated a number of fighters from Syria
into Lebanon. Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies reportedly also entered Iraq from positions along
the Syria-Iraq border, including Abu Kamal in Eastern Syria.
Unspecified pro-regime elements reportedly evacuated a branch of the Syrian Scientific
Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Jamraya near Damascus. The SSRC is a Syrian
government body responsible for research and development on
advanced weapons systems, including ballistic missiles and chemical weapons.
Yemen
The Iranian-backed al Houthi movement escalated its series of
ballistic missile strikes targeting Saudi Arabia. The strikes fit a
pre-existing escalatory pattern but also coincide with Saudi Arabia’s expressed
support for a military response in Syria. The al Houthi movement targeted
Riyadh and two other locations in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile and kamikaze drones on April 11. It
remains unclear if Iran directed the escalation against Saudi Arabia.
United States
The U.S. Navy announced that the guided-missile destroyer USS Donald Cook departed from Larnaca,
Cyprus to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea on April 9. The guided-missile
destroyer USS
Porter is also operating in the Navy’s Sixth Fleet area of
operations. The U.S. Navy announced on April 11 that the USS Harry Truman Carrier Strike Group departed from Norfolk, Virginia for a
regularly scheduled deployment in support of ongoing operations by the Navy’s
Fifth and Sixth Fleets, the headquarters for which are located in Bahrain and
Italy, respectively.
France
United Kingdom
Britain reportedly ordered the deployment of an unspecified
number of cruise missile-capable submarines to the Mediterranean Sea within
range of Syria.
Turkey
Turkey maintains at least one warship stationed near Cyprus
in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The Turkish Navy originally deployed to block offshore hydrocarbon
exploration by Italy and France in the territorial waters of Cyprus on February
3, 2018.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammad bin Salman announced his “readiness to work
with allies on any military response in Syria if needed” following a meeting
with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on April 10.
The Critical Threats
Project at the American Enterprise Institute contributed to the Yemen-related content
in this publication.
