Russia likely perceives a requirement to subvert the Moldovan government before Moldova’s 2018 parliamentary elections or risk surrendering influence over the country’s decision-making. The broadly pro-Western Moldovan government recently took steps to curb Russia’s subversion, and expand its cooperation with Ukraine and NATO. Moldova’s pro-Russia President Igor Dodon has thus far failed to make meaningful progress in pushing Moldova into the Kremlin’s orbit. Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely attempt to destabilize the government of Moldova and empower President Dodon to reset the political situation in Chisinau in the Kremlin’s favor. The U.S. must support the forces in Moldova defending the country’s sovereignty against Russian aggression.
Moldova’s pro-Russia president Igor Dodon is attempting
to push Moldova into Russia’s orbit, but is facing effective resistance from
pro-Western elements of the government.[1]
Dodon, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key ally in Moldova, supports
Moldova’s integration into Russia-controlled structures, including Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU). He is currently unable to initiate membership talks or
achieve any important progress without parliamentary support.[2] Dodon attempted to
transition the country from a parliamentary system to a presidential one in
order to expand his power.[3] The Moldovan
Constitutional Court disrupted Dodon’s plan on July 27 by finding his planned
September 2017 referendum on the issue unconstitutional.[4]
The pro-Western Moldovan Parliament and the Prime
Minister Pavel
Filip
have taken decisive steps to counter Russian subversion and integrate with
Western structures. The Moldovan Parliament demanded that Russia’s
“peacekeeping forces,” illegally deployed in the Russian-controlled separatist Transnistria
region since 1992, withdraw from Moldovan territory on July 21.[5] Moldova also denied a number
of high-profile Russians, including Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry
Rogozin and a member of the Russian parliament, access to the country.[6] Moldova also expanded its
security cooperation with Ukraine. Moldova reiterated its support for Ukraine
in its fight against Russia’s proxy forces in Eastern Ukraine.[7] Ukrainian President Petro
Poroshenko and Moldovan Prime Minister Pavel Filip participated in the opening
of a joint border crossing designed to expand customs control and prevent
smuggling, and likely intelligence activity, from Transnistria on July 17. The
two governments agreed to expand that control on August 14.[8] Moldova continues to fight
the ongoing flow of Russian mercenaries to and from Moldova and Eastern Ukraine.[9] The Moldovan government expelled five Russian
diplomats on May 29, whom it accused of recruiting Moldovans to fight alongside
Russia’s separatist proxies in Eastern Ukraine.[10] The Moldovan government also
continues to expand its ties with NATO, most recently agreeing to open a NATO liaison
office in Chisinau.[11]
Russia views these
developments, in particular, Moldova’s steps
to advance its cooperation with Ukraine and NATO as a threat to its regional
security interests.
The Kremlin uses its illegal military basing in Transnistria to threaten
Moldova, Ukraine’s western flank and NATO member Romania. The Kremlin sees
Moldova-Ukraine border posts as an attempt to isolate its base in Transnistria.[12] Russia has had difficulty
moving troops and supplies into Transnistria due to its war in Ukraine, and
expanding Ukraine-Moldova cooperation threatens to cut off its access to the
region entirely. [13]The
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council’s Committee on Defense and
Security Bair Zhamsuev said on August 08 that Russia would use military force
to protect Transnistria should Moldova or the West attempt to invade it.[14]
Russia will likely escalate its efforts to undermine
Moldova’s broadly pro-Western government. President
Dodon’s legal options to achieve his goals are now highly limited, which is
likely to prompt the Kremlin to directly subvert the Moldovan government. The
Kremlin’s most likely course of action will be to use disinformation and
political subversion to weaken the pro-Western government in order expand
Dodon’s influence. The Kremlin’s most dangerous course of action would be to
use its military and intelligence forces operating out of Transnistria to
destabilize and, potentially, collapse the pro-Western government ahead of 2018
parliamentary elections. In both cases, the Kremlin is also likely to frame the
Western presence in Moldova as a provocation in order to justify an expansion
of Russian involvement in Transnistria.[15]
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has already claimed the
U.S. is training Moldovan saboteurs to infiltrate Transnistria at a military
base undergoing U.S.-funded renovation in Bulboaca, Moldova on August 07.[16] Dodon promised to watch
the base for signs of a regional conflict provoked by the U.S.[17] The Kremlin will
also likely exploit the growing political tensions, rising ahead of the 2018
elections. The Moldovan Parliament passed a controversial bill on July 20 that
would change Moldova to a mixed electoral system. The legislation, which was
criticized for perpetuating larger parties’ control of the government, caused
protests and clashes between police and protesters.”[18] The Kremlin may use such
discontent to foster further political instability.
The Trump Administration must support pro-Western
political forces in Moldova in their efforts to counter
Russian subversion and strengthen Moldova’s internal resiliency. The
US must help Moldova secure its sovereignty and territorial integrity, develop
a transparent and accountable government, and deter potential Russian
aggression. Such support should include a range of assistance programs,
including military and border security assistance. The US must reemphasize that Russian forces
are illegally occupying Transnistria and must withdraw from Moldovan territory.
[1] Inter-Parliamentary
Union, “Republic of Moldova Parliament: Last Elections,” ipu.org,
http://www(.)ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2215_E.htm
[2]
Alexander Tanas, “Moldova President sees Move Towards Russia-led Trade Union in
2017,” Reuters, July 28, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-dodon-idUSKBN1AD253
Novinite Staff, “Moldova President Supports the Eurasian Economic Union,”
Novinite, July 12, 2017, http://www.novinite(.)com/articles/181167/Moldova+President+Supports+the+Eurasian+Economic+Union
TASS Staff, “Moldovan President Hopes Putin will Visit Moldova Next Year,”
TASS, July 25, 2017, http://tass(.)com/world/957763 Allessandra Prentice and Alexander Tanas, “Pro-Russian
Candidate Triumphs in Moldova Presidential Race,” Reuters, November 13, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-idUSKBN1380TNMihai Popsoi, "Why did a Pro-Russian Candidate Win
the Presidency in Moldova?" FPRI, November 23, 2016, http://www.fpri.org/article/2016/11/pro-russian-candidate-win-presidency-moldova/
[3]
Mihai Popsoi, “Moldovan President Seeks Regime Change via Referendum,”
Jamestown Foundation, March 06, 2017, https://jamestown.org/program/moldovan-president-seeks-regime-change-via-referendum/
[4]
RFERL Staff, “Moldovan Court Finds President Dodon’s Referendum Plan
Unconstitutional,” RFERL, July 27, 2017, https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-president-dodon-referendum-unconstitutional/28642832.html
[5]
Diana Preasca, “The Chisinau Parliament Calls for the Withdrawal of Russian
Troops from the Territory of the Republic of Moldova,” Moldova.org, July 21,
2017, [Romanian] http://www.moldova(.)org/parlamentul-de-la-chisinau-cere-retragerea-trupelor-ruse-de-pe-teritoriul-republicii-moldova/Russian Ministry of Defense, "Peacekeeping
Operation in Transnistria," Russian Ministry of Defense, http://eng.mil(.)ru/en/mission/peacekeeping_operations/more.htm?id=10336232@cmsArticle
[6]
RFERL Staff, “Igor Dodon Threatens to Punish Those who Cause Worsening of
Bilateral Relations with Russia,” RFERL, July 28, 2017, [Romanian],
https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28645115.html
RFERL Staff, “Dmitry Rogozin, Declared Undesirable in
Moldova,” RFERL, August 02, 2017, [Romanian]
https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28654834.html
[7]
RFERL Staff, “The Republic of Moldova Condemns the Proclamation of the
so-called “Malorossiya” by the Secessionists in the Donetsk Region,” RFERL,
July 21, 2017, [Romanian]
http://www.moldova(.)org/republica-moldova-condamna-proclamarea-de-catre-secesionistii-din-regiunea-donetk-a-asa-zisei-malorusia/
[8]
RFERL Staff, “Ukraine and Moldova have Opened a Common Border Crossing,” RFERL,
July 17, 2017, [Russian] https://www.svoboda.org/a/28621398.html
RFERL Staff, “Moldova, Ukraine to Extend Joint Control
at All Border Crossing Points on the Transnistrian Segment,” RFERL, August 14,
2017, [Romanian] https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28676134.html
[9]
Cristi Vlas, “Another Moldovan Mercenary Arrested for Fighting for Separatist
Entities in Eastern Ukraine,” Moldova.org, June 28, 2017, http://www.moldova(.)org/en/another-moldovan-mercenary-arrested-fighting-separatist-entities-eastern-ukraine/
[10]
UNIAN Staff, “Moldova Expels 5 Russian Diplomats,” UNIAN, May 29, 2017, https://www.unian(.)info/politics/1948686-moldova-expels-5-russian-diplomats.html
[11]
RFERL Staff, “The NATO Liaison Office in Chisinau Could be Opened in August,”
RFERL, July 21, 2017, https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28630897.html
[12]
RFERL Staff, “Igor Dodon Assures Russia that the Moldovan Authorities will not
make Transnistrian Problems Through Joint Customs Control with Ukraine,” RFERL,
July 19, 2017, https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28625964.html
[13]
Stratfor Staff, “How Ukraine is Obstructing Russia in Transnistria,” Stratfor,
June 12, 2017, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-ukraine-obstructing-russia-transdniestria
RFERL Staff, “Moldova Refuses Russia “the Right to Cross its Airspace and Land
Aircraft” at Russian Military Airports in Chisinau and Tiraspol,” RFERL, [Romanian]
July 20, 2017, https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28628072.html
[14]
Nikita Kondratov, “Duma Member: “Russia Will Protect Transnistria,” First
Transnistrian, August 08, 2017, [Russian]
https://tv.pgtrk(.)ru/news/20170808/59941
[15]
Steven L Hall, “Why the West should Pay More Attention to Moldova,” Stratfor,
February 20, 2016, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/why-west-should-pay-more-attention-moldova
TASS Staff, “Transdniestria Leader Accuses Moldova of Stepping up Cooperation
with NATO,” TASS, July 05, 2016, http://tass(.)com/world/886438
[16] Realitatea
Staff, “Dmitry Rogozin: US Prepares Saboteurs and Soldiers of the Special
Forces of Moldova for a new Transnistrian Conflict,” Realitatea.md, August 07,
2017, [Romanian] http://www.realitatea(.)md/dmitri-rogozin--sua-pregateste-sabotori-si-militari-ai-fortelor-speciale-din-r--moldova-pentru-un-nou-conflict-transnistrean_62197.html
[17]
Arina Livadari, “What Dodon Found at the Bulboaca Military Polygon,”
Moldova.org, August 14, 2017, [Romanian] http://www.moldova(.)org/en/dodon-found-bulboaca-military-polygon/
RFERL Staff, “Despite Russian Allegations, Moldova’s Dodon Finds no Fault with
Training Base,” RFERL, August 14, 2017. [Romanian] https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-dodon-refutes-russia-rt-allegations-military-base/28676040.html
TASS Staff, “Moldovan President Accuses West of Attempting to Involve Chisinau
in Regional Conflict,” TASS, August 14, 2017, http://tass(.)com/world/960270
[18] RFERL Staff, “PPE and ALDE
Call on the EU to Stop Moldova’s Funding and Assess the “Decline of the Rule of
Law and Democratic Standards,” RFERL, July 26, 2017, [Romanian] https://www.europalibera(.)org/a/28639018.html;
RFERL Staff, “The Parliamentary Majority in Chisinau Voted Unexpectedly in
Favor of the Transition to the Mixed Electoral System at Final Reading,” RFERL,
July 20, 2017, [Romanian] https://www.europalibera.org/a/28628262.html
Diana Preasca, “Altercations Wednesday Evening in front of the Parliament in
Chisinau. Two People Detained,” Moldova.org [Romanian] http://www.moldova(.)org/altercatii-miercuri-seara-in-fata-parlamentului-de-la-chisinau-doua-persoane-retinute-video/
RFERL Staff, “Appeals from the Opposition from Moldova to Protest Against the
Vote in the Parliament on the Modification of the Electoral System,” RFERL,
July 19, 2017. [Romanian] http://www.moldova(.)org/igor-dodon-a-promulgat-legea-privind-reforma-guvernului-voi-insista-ca-si-numarul-deputatilor-sa-fie-redus/
