By: Christopher Kozak
Key
Takeaway: Aleppo Province stands to
become the focal point of a new round of violence in the Syrian Civil War even
as the Geneva III Talks to end the conflict are scheduled
to resume on April 13. Continued
violations of an ongoing ‘cessation of hostilities’ by both pro-regime and
opposition factions have fueled the largest outbreak of violence in northern Syria
since the agreement went
into effect on February 27, threatening to drive a wider breakdown of the
tenuous ceasefire. Additional violence can also be expected in northern Aleppo
Province over the coming weeks as Turkey and the U.S. vie over the course and
composition of coalition-led efforts to sever the ground lines of communication
between Ar-Raqqa City and the Syrian-Turkish Border. Turkey has worked to
empower opposition groups in Aleppo Province in order to foil the territorial
gains made by the Syrian Kurdish YPG, which the U.S. relies upon in the
counter-ISIS fight. The regime and its allies also retain positions at the
Kuweires Airbase from which to contest ISIS-held portions of Aleppo Province.
This local competition for control over Aleppo Province – and the larger
geopolitical struggle between the U.S., Russia, Iran, and Turkey that it
reflects – will reach a critical boiling point in the coming months.
1. Hostilities Resume in Southern Aleppo Province: Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra
and a coalition of other opposition groups – including several U.S.-backed Free
Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated factions – seized the strategic town of Al-Eis in southern Aleppo Province on April 1
following clashes that involved at least three SVBIED detonations. The Syrian
Arab Army released a statement condemning the offensive as a major violation of the ‘cessation of
hostilities’ and vowing to recapture the
town, while opposition groups presented the attack as
a justified counterattack in response to persistent ceasefire
violations by pro-regime forces throughout the country. Pro-regime forces have mobilized
for a counteroffensive amidst reports that Russia
resumed its air campaign in Aleppo Province. Iran also announced the deployment of ‘advisors’ from its conventional
armed forces in a significant inflection of its own intervention in Syria. The
mounting military escalation in southern Aleppo Province heightened further on
April 5 after prominent Salafi-Jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham downed a regime warplane over Al-Eis. The incident comes amidst persistent
rumors that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other foreign actors may intend to
provide the opposition with a small number of man-portable air defense systems
(MANPADS) as a counter the air campaign being conducted by Russia in Syria.
2. Kurds and Opposition Skirmish in Aleppo City: The Syrian Democratic Forces – a coalition
composed of the Syrian Kurdish YPG and allied opposition factions – clashed with Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat
al-Nusra and other opposition groups in the Sheikh Maqsoud District of Aleppo City on April 5. Activist
groups accused the Syrian Democratic Forces of cooperating with the regime in
order to sever the key Castello Highway that supplies opposition-held Aleppo City. Long-standing
tensions with the Syrian Kurds have flared into open violence in the past few
months after the Syrian Democratic Forces assisted the regime in severing the primary ground line of communication between Aleppo City and Turkey in
February 2016.
3. Turkish-Backed Opposition Advances on Syrian-Turkish Border: The Hawar Kilis Operations Room – a
coalition of opposition groups backed by the U.S. and Turkey – seized the ISIS-held town of Al-Rai in northern Aleppo Province on April 7. Al-Rai
serves as a key route for illegal cross-border smuggling of foreign fighters
and supplies to ISIS in Syria. The advance comes as part of an ongoing
offensive along the Syrian – Turkish Border that seized at least sixteen villages from ISIS since March 31. Turkey has
intensified its provision of weapons, cross-border artillery fire, and other
forms of support to opposition forces in northern Aleppo Province in recent months
in a likely attempt to preclude further gains in the border region by the
Syrian Kurdish YPG.
4. The U.S. and Turkey Spar Over Counter-ISIS Operations: The Syrian Democratic Forces – a coalition
composed of the Syrian Kurdish YPG and allied opposition factions – announced preparations for an upcoming military operation to
seize the ISIS-held city of Manbij in eastern Aleppo Province. Manbij is a major hub for foreign
fighters and supplies transiting the Syrian-Turkish Border, thus representing a
key objective for the U.S.-led coalition in its efforts to isolate Ar-Raqqa
City. The operation nonetheless faces significant hurdles. Local Arab and
Turkmen tribes have reportedly resisted
overtures to participate
in the operation due to the alleged mistreatment of civilians in regions
previously-cleared by the Syrian Kurdish YPG. Meanwhile, Turkish President
Recep Erdogan reportedly linked his support for the operation to demands for participating Sunni Arab factions to
disavow their ties with the Syrian Democratic Forces as well as calls for the
U.S. to provide additional air support to Turkish-backed opposition groups in northern
Aleppo Province. The U.S. and Turkey held a technical meeting on April 4 in order to discuss the
operation but the issue remains contentious given the links between the Syrian
Kurdish YPG and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist
group currently waging
an active insurgency in southern Turkey.
