by: ISW Syria Team
Russia’s four month long air campaign has set conditions
for the encirclement of Aleppo. Pro-regime forces backed by heavy
Russian airstrikes severed one of two
opposition supply lines into Aleppo City from the Turkish border
on February 3 when they pushed northwest of the city to reestablish a regime
supply line to the besieged regime towns of Nubl and Zahra’a. Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters and Iranian-backed Shi’a militia forces
played a prominent role in the offensive, demonstrating the lethality of
combined Russian air and Iranian ground operations against the opposition
in Syria. Reports of Russian Spetnaz
activity at unspecified locations in Aleppo Province likely indicate the
involvement of these forces in the operation. The gains position
pro-regime forces to encircle opposition-held portions of Aleppo City by
severing the last remaining opposition supply line that runs east from the
Turkish border into the city. The regime can sever this final supply line at
two locations: an outer location northwest of Aleppo City on the road to the
Turkish border that passes through the
towns of Huraytan and Kafr Hamra, or an inner location in the city’s
eastern sector controlled by the armed opposition, such
as the Hanano District. Russia’s air campaign has consistently targeted
the outer location for the past three months, indicating that this is where
pro-regime forces intend to complete the encirclement. This section of the
supply line runs through rural terrain that Russian airpower can easily
target and
Iranian-backed ground forces can ultimately seize, whereas the inner location is more
difficult as the terrain includes both
topographic and urban barriers to rapid ground offensives. Pro-regime
forces are meanwhile taking steps to buffer their forward line of troops (FLOT)
to the north of Aleppo to make it possible to sustain the encirclement.
Pro-regime forces will likely complete the encirclement of Aleppo in coming
weeks and besiege the opposition inside the city in order to force Turkey and
Saudi Arabia to concede to a negotiated settlement or ceasefire.
