Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Alexandra Braverman, Andie Parry, Ben Rezaei, Carolyn Moorman, George Ekmekjian, Faris Almaari, and Brian Carter
- Missile and drone attack: Defa Press stated that Iran could conduct a drone attack "using advanced Shahed 136 drones."[5] Iran unveiled the Shahed-136B drone in September 2024 and claimed it has a range of 4000 kilometers (km).[6] The original Shahed-136 drone has a maximum speed of 185 km per hour, which means it would take about 20 hours to reach Diego Garcia from the southernmost city in Iran. Iran previously launched about 170 drones in their April 2024 attack on Israel, none of which entered Israeli airspace, in part because the drone’s slow speed enabled allied aircraft to intercept and destroy the drones.[7] The drones launched from Iran would have taken roughly nine hours to reach Israel, though Israel had the benefit of a plethora of Israeli and allied land-based aircraft available to intercept drones.[8] Defa Press also stated that Iran could use ballistic and cruise missiles, including Khorramshahr ballistic missiles, at "close range" to Diego Garcia.[9] Iran's stockpile of medium-range missiles and ability to manufacture some advanced ballistic missiles have been severely depleted following the April and October 2024 Israeli airstrikes on Iran, but Iran would presumably expend a large proportion of its remaining stockpile in the event of a strike on its nuclear facilities.[10] Iran would need to significantly decrease the payload of its drones and missiles or otherwise alter the weight of the drones and missiles themselves to launch a land-based attack with sufficient range to hit Diego Garcia.
- Naval drone and missile attack launched from surface vessels: Defa Press also threatened that Iran could hit targets in the Indian Ocean using surface vessels, presumably its drone carriers and others, to launch cruise missiles and drones.[11] This would—in theory—allow Iranian ships to get closer to Diego Garcia. Such vessels lack the necessary countermeasures to seriously defend themselves against US naval action, however.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and interim government appear to be reaching a series of agreements to redistribute territory after signing a comprehensive ceasefire on March 10.[21] The SDF agreed to withdraw from two historically Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo City on April 1.[22] An interim government official said that the withdrawal agreement is the first step toward the comprehensive agreement between the SDF and interim government.[23] Local sources subsequently reported that the SDF withdrew from the Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge on April 2, where they have fought the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) since December 2024.[24] An anti-SDF source also claimed that the SDF would withdraw from Deir Hafer, Nasiriyah, and Maskanah south of the dam along Highway 4 after leaving Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge.[25] Syrian sources, including those close to the intern government, claimed that the SDF’s withdrawal was the result of “a preliminary agreement” to create a demilitarized zone around frequent engagement sites.[26] A “special administration,” possibly consisting of dam employees, will be in control of the Tishreen Dam area.[27] Dam employees were allowed to remain in the area to permit the electrical plant to continue its regular functions during the last ceasefire agreement between the SDF and the SNA in December 2024.[28] Syrian Kurdish sources have refuted the reports that the SDF withdrew from its positions on the western bank of the Euphrates River.[29] Official SDF and interim government sources have not commented on the rumored SDF withdrawal or agreement at the time of this writing.
- Iranian Nuclear Program: Iran continued to threaten US bases and forces, likely to try to discourage a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid US threats to strike these facilities. Iranian media said that Iran could attack Diego Garcia using very long-range one-way attack drones or by using a naval surface combatant to launch drones and cruise missiles.
- Hezbollah Reconstitution: Hezbollah may be using networks abroad to help it reconstitute its military capabilities in Lebanon. Spanish security forces detained three individuals residing in Barcelona, Spain, on April 1 on suspicion of purchasing drone components on behalf of Hezbollah. These individuals are likely part of a larger, Spain-based Hezbollah cell that has been procuring drone parts through European front companies for Hezbollah since at least 2015.
- SDF-Syrian Interim Government Agreement: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and interim government appear to be reaching a series of agreements to redistribute territory after signing a comprehensive ceasefire on March 10.
The Syrian interim government is attempting to address local concerns amid continued murders and violence committed by government-backed forces. Two interim Syrian government soldiers assassinated the mukhtar, or village head, of Harf al Benmira and five other men present in his home on March 31.[30] The local Syrian security force commander reported that the perpetrators were from a police unit in the al Dinsa area of Tartous and that the perpetrators had been arrested on March 31.[31] The interim government removed all those associated with the violence in Harf al Benmira from al Dinsa on March 31.[32] The group based in al Dinsa was also reportedly firing their weapons into the air and the sea, which caused fear among local residents and a breakdown in relations between the residents and local security forces.[33] The Syrian Civil Peace Commitee, which Syrian President Ahmed al Shara created after the spate of sectarian violence on the Syrian coast in early March, visited Harf al Benmira to update the community on the government‘s efforts to seek justice.[34] Committee member Dr. Anas Ayrouth, who Shara recently appointed to the Supreme Fatwa Council, told the community that the assailants have been "referred to the judiciary.”[35] Ayrouth’s statement is a positive step, but it will need to be backed by public, transparent trials that demonstrate to the local population that suspects are being held accountable.
Israel reneged on its promise on April 2 to provide Israeli work visas to Syrian Druze agricultural workers.[36] Israel previously announced it would provide work visas to "dozens“ of Syrian Druze to work on various agricultural and construction projects in the Golan Heights.[37] Israel has increased diplomatic outreach to the Druze community in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime, such as by facilitating the visit of clerics from Syria to a religious shrine in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.[38] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz directed the IDF on March 3 to ”prepare to defend the Druze community” in response to fighting in Syria.[39] The Druze community is highly diverse, and loyalty to a particular leader within the community varies across Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.[40]
Syrian General Security forces arrested two former Assad regime members who attempted to carry out an attack on a security checkpoint in Bustan al Dour, Damascus City.[41] Syrian security forces seized at least two handguns, several grenades, and forged military IDs from the two attackers.[42] A Syrian source reported that the two individuals were former members of the ”National Defense Forces” and another Baathist anti-Israel militia.[43] The ”National Defense Forces” was a Baathist paramilitary organization trained by Iran and Hezbollah that functionally became part of the Assad regime in 2014.[44]
Iraq
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Strengthen Iranian and Axis of Resistance influence over the Iraqi state and society
- Harden the Iraqi government against internal dissent
Arabian Peninsula
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Harden the Houthi regime against internal dissent in Houthi-controlled areas
- Destroy the anti-Houthi opposition in order to control all of Yemen
- Erode Israeli will to continue the war in the Gaza Strip
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted at least 22 airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure and leadership in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on April 1.[51] CENTCOM conducted at least four airstrikes in two separate sorties targeting reported Houthi training facilities east of Mansuriyah District, Hudaydah Governorate.[52] CENTCOM also targeted Houthi sites near Hudaydah Port, including Kamaran Island, for the second consecutive day.[53] A Yemeni journalist circulated a Houthi directive on X, warning civilians in Houthi areas not to document or share information on US airstrikes.[54]
The Palestinian Territories and Lebanon
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
- Rebuild and reestablish Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
[1] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/735701/
[2] https://www.twz.com/air/signs-u-s-massing-b-2-spirit-bombers-in-diego-garcia
[3] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/735701/
[4] https://installations.militaryonesource.mil/in-depth-overview/navy-support-facility-diego-garcia#:~:text=Active%20duty%20military%20and%20DOD,2%2C000%20DoD%20civilians%20and%20contractors.
[5] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/735701/
[6] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/tehran-unveils-new-drone-missile-claims-israel-deterred-by-its-power/ ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/31/3162266/ ; https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/1961089
[7] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57
[8] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/as-israel-waits-for-a-2nd-attack-what-are-irans-missile-and-drone-capabilities/
[9] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/735701/
[10] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-consequences-of-the-idf-strikes-into-iran
[11] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/735701/
[12] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/12/06/3264097 ; https://farsnews dot ir/Rahgozar_b/1743156850902814441/Iran-Parliament-Speaker%3A-Palestine-Litmus-Test-for-West's-Double-Standards
[13] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-sends-warplanes-ships-to-the-middle-east-in-warning-to-iran-f72fcaff?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3
[14] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/01/11/3283869
[15] https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-january-24-2022
[16] es.euronews dot com/my-europe/2025/04/01/tres-detenidos-en-una-operacion-antiterrorista-contra-una-celula-de-hezbola-en-barcelona ; elpais dot com/espana/catalunya/2025-04-01/la-guardia-civil-pone-en-marcha-una-operacion-contra-el-terrorismo-yihadista-en-el-centro-de-barcelona.html
[17] https://www.npr dot org/2025/03/28/nx-s1-5343466/israel-strike-beirut-lebanon-hezbollah
[18] elespanol dot com/espana/20250401/guardia-civil-lanza-nueva-operacion-antiterrorista-celula-envio-drones-hezbola-espana/935656535_0.html
[19] elpais dot com/espana/catalunya/2025-04-01/la-guardia-civil-pone-en-marcha-una-operacion-contra-el-terrorismo-yihadista-en-el-centro-de-barcelona.html ; elespanol dot com/espana/20250401/guardia-civil-lanza-nueva-operacion-antiterrorista-celula-envio-drones-hezbola-espana/935656535_0.html
[20] elpais dot com/espana/catalunya/2025-04-01/la-guardia-civil-pone-en-marcha-una-operacion-contra-el-terrorismo-yihadista-en-el-centro-de-barcelona.html
[21] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/593
[22] https://t.me/syrianmoi/23714
[23] https://t.me/AleppoGov1/3621 ; https://t.me/syrianmoi/23714
[24] https://x.com/AbomosaabSharke/status/1907472677264306471 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/140068 ; https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1907421378132738505 ; https://x.com/HalabTodayTV/status/1907415829244715417 ; https://t.me/TelevisionSyria/54161
[25] https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/140066
[26] https://t.me/TelevisionSyria/54165 ; https://x.com/DeirEzzore/status/1907487903376150982
[27] https://t.me/TelevisionSyria/54165
[28] https://t.me/Dawn_of_Freedom1/271 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-12-2024
[29] https://x.com/RojavaNetwork/status/1907476298190000501 ; https://x.com/ScharoMaroof/status/1907449170941612516
[30] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1906661783152038103 ; https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1906768620476322221 ; [GRAPHIC] https://x.com/Sy_intelligence/status/1906695118494589396 ; https://t.me/TelevisionSyria/54125
[31] https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1906768620476322221 ; https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1907195374655451191
[32] https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1907195374655451191
[33] https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1907195374655451191
[34] https://t.me/TartusGov1/2472 ; https://x.com/omar_alharir/status/1898804550104211705
[35] https://t.me/TartusGov1/2472 ; https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/655
[36] https://www.kan.org dot il/content/kan-news/defense/878377/
[37] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/katz-says-israel-will-soon-allow-syrian-druze-to-work-in-the-golan-heights/
[38] https://apnews.com/article/syria-israel-druze-golan-heights-tarif-assad-fall-hts-2000a5fdc1d53a1df2dccd404b6cf140
[39] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-3-2025
[40] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-march-3-2025
[41] https://x.com/HalabTodayTV/status/1907482636164923652
[42] https://x.com/HalabTodayTV/status/1907482636164923652
[43] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1907485171265262061
[44] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-update-fall-al-qusayr ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2015/05/the-regime-military-capabilities-part-1.html
[45] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%80%D9%80%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%AA%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF-%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9 ; https://x.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1907151896563065330
[46] https://x.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1907151896563065330
[47] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%80%D9%80%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%AA%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF-%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9
[48] https://x.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1907189831899443648 ; https://www.shafaq dot com/ar/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%80%D9%80%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AF%D9%87%D9%88%D9%83 ; https://www.ninanews dot com/Website/News/Details?key=1195341
[49] https://x.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1907189831899443648
[50] https://www.shafaq dot com/ar/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%80%D9%80%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AF%D9%87%D9%88%D9%83 ; https://www.ninanews dot com/Website/News/Details?key=1195341
https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1907166031484977472 ;
https://x.com/Alsakaniali/status/1907171915774747084;
https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1907172029540774155;
https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1907177897820836303;
https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1907184563715178773;
https://x.com/Alhadath_Ymn/status/1907187033098879484;
https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1907408945951428755
[52] https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1907203702185713977 ;
https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1907408945951428755 ; https://x.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1907408945951428755
[53] https://x.com/Alhadath_Ymn/status/1907161263534207037;
https://x.com/Alsakaniali/status/1907171915774747084; https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1907149741986598917
[54] https://x.com/Alsakaniali/status/1907485671855395010
[55] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1907194249663127780
[56] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1907361793543991703
[57] https://news.usni.org/2025/03/28/uss-carl-vinson-departs-guam-for-middle-east-tasking
[58] https://x.com/AlmuthannaSaif/status/1907143963858846205
[59] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0068
[60] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0068,https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0221,https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0041
[61] bon-bast.com
[62] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/01/13/3284410
[63] https://laadexpo dot com.br/defence/en/ ;
https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/01/13/3284410
[64] https://www.mehrnews dot com/news/6423230
[65] https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1907176122015772949
[66] https://www.wsj.com/world/irans-rise-as-global-arms-supplier-vexes-u-s-and-its-allies-6f205083 ;
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407248345 ; https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/1875433 ;
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/
[68] https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-prepared-wholesale-export-weapons-allies-top-general-says ;
https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/215319 ; https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/592742
[69] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/bessent-pushes-banks-for-help-enforcing-maximum-pressure-on-iran