By Genevieve Casagrande
Russia
has escalated its air campaign in Syria in an effort to deter and undermine
Western military action. ISW assesses with high confidence that Russian
airstrikes targeted areas held by the U.S.-backed New Syrian Army near the Syrian al Tanaf
border crossing with Iraq on June 16. The U.S. trained and equipped
the New Syrian Army to fight ISIS in southeastern Syria. The U.S. sent jets to
intercept and prevent additional attacks, but Russian warplanes returned to conduct a second strike against New Syrian Army positions while
the American jets refueled, according to anonymous U.S. Defense
Officials. Russia and the U.S. held a teleconference on June 18 to discuss
the incident, during which Russia requested that the U.S. “share
coordinates” of U.S.-backed opposition groups in
Syria. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the two sides agreed
to “[aim] to improve the coordination on fighting the terrorist organization in
Syria,” but did not specify any new measures to prevent the targeting of
U.S.-backed groups. The strikes are a clear demonstration of Russia’s
willingness to escalate with the U.S. and likely
belief that the U.S. will be unwilling to sufficiently counter the provocation.
The attack against
the New Syrian Army follows an increased American military response to Russian
activity in Syria over recent weeks. The U.S.
deployed the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group on
June 3 to the Mediterranean Sea in order to conduct strikes against ISIS in Iraq
and Syria and offset increased Russian naval capabilities in the
Mediterranean. Russia subsequently deployed long-range naval reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare
aircraft to theater, which local Syrian activists
documented in Aleppo Province on June 5. Russia also began to project force
into Eastern Syria from June 5 - 17, intensifying its own aerial bombardment of
ISIS-held terrain in ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour Provinces. The U.S. has
nonetheless continued to conduct strikes against ISIS from the
Mediterranean. The U.S. also deployed
the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the
Mediterranean on June 13, which will reportedly remain
in the Mediterranean after the Truman returns to the U.S. in late June. The
deployments of U.S. strike carrier groups are likely an effort to deter a
continued Russian buildup of air and naval anti-access/area denial (A2AD)
capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia’s attacks
against American-backed groups in Syria and the expansion of its air campaign
into ISIS-held terrain demonstrate that Russia will continue to change
conditions on the ground in Syria in order to undermine American
interests. Russian airstrikes during the first
two weeks of June increased to rates that “exceeded the pre-cessation of hostilities totals”
in Aleppo Province, according to Director of the CIA John Brennan. In response,
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated on June 15 that the U.S. is not
“going to sit there while Assad continues to offensively assault Aleppo and
while Russia continues to support in that effort.”
Russia nonetheless continued to bombard opposition-held areas in Aleppo
Province amidst a temporary ceasefire agreement in Aleppo City from
June 16 - 17. ISW assessed a total
of 14 Russian strike locations in the Aleppo area with low and high confidence
during that time period. Russia’s claim to adhere to a ceasefire despite
continuing its air campaign obfuscates its role in exacerbating the Syrian
conflict. Russia’s violation of the ceasefire agreement demonstrates that it
remains undeterred from continuing its campaign against the Syrian opposition
despite American rhetoric threatening greater U.S. response.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
