Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. Click here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.|
CTP-ISW
defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that
Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came
to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state,
semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their
collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the
alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels
of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some
degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional
proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others
are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of
the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives,
which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from
the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these
objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have
become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We
do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are
well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military
operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn
violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and
crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these
reports.
CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on May 18 and 19, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume on Monday, May 20, 2024.
A
helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Affairs
Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian crashed near Uzi, East Azerbaijan
Province, Iran, on May 19.[1] It remains unclear at the time of
this writing whether Raisi and Abdollahian survived the crash. First
Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would temporarily serve as president if
Raisi died in the crash, according to the Iranian constitution.[2]
Mokhber, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Judiciary
Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei would then have 50 days to organize a
presidential election.[3]
Mokhber previously served as the head of the Execution of Imam
Khomeini’s Order (EIKO)—a parastatal organization directly controlled by
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—between 2007 and 2021.[4] The US Treasury Department sanctioned Mokhber and the EIKO in January 2021.[5]
Mokhber also previously served as the chairman of the US-sanctioned
Sina Bank and as the Mostazafan Foundation’s vice president for commerce
and transportation.[6]
The US Treasury Department sanctioned Sina Bank in October 2018 for
financially supporting the Basij—a paramilitary organization responsible
for civil defense and social control in Iran—and sanctioned the
Mostazafan Foundation in November 2020.[7]
Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei wields ultimate decision-making authority in Iran,
but Raisi still holds significant power within the regime. Raisi
is the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a regime entity
constitutionally responsible for monitoring the supreme leader and
selecting his successor.[8]
Iranians re-elected Raisi to serve as a representative of South
Khorasan Province in the Assembly of Experts during the recent March
2024 Assembly of Experts elections.[9]
Raisi also holds numerous ex officio positions. He is a member of the
Expediency Discernment Council and the chairman of the Supreme National
Security Council, Supreme Cultural Revolution Council, and Supreme Cyber
Space Council.
Raisi’s death would have serious implications for supreme leader succession.
Raisi is considered one of the top contenders—along with Khamenei’s
son, Mojtaba Khamenei—to succeed Khamenei as supreme leader. Khamenei
appointed Raisi to the position of judiciary chief in 2019 and endorsed
Raisi during the August 2021 presidential elections.[10]
The next several days have the potential to reshape the immediate and
long-term dynamics of the regime, including supreme leader succession.
Raisi’s death would ultimately not change the regime’s current
trajectory toward more hardline and conservative domestic policies and
more aggressive regional policies, however.
Israeli
War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz threatened to leave Israel’s coalition
government if the three-member war cabinet does not approve a new
strategy for the war in the Gaza Strip by June 8.[11]
Gantz appealed for a strategy that prioritizes the release of hostages
over the destruction of Hamas and allows residents in northern Israel to
return home by September 1.[12]
Gantz also called for Israeli security control of the Gaza Strip
alongside the formation of a US-European-Arab-Palestinian group to take
charge of civilian administration in the Gaza Strip. This civil
administration would exclude both Hamas and Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas.[13] Gantz also called for an Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization deal.[14] The normalization deal currently calls for Palestinian statehood.[15]
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office responded to Gantz’s
ultimatum saying that Netanyahu is “determined to eliminate the Hamas
battalions [and he] opposes the introduction of the Palestinian
Authority into Gaza and the establishment of a Palestinian state.”[16]
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant—the third member of the war
cabinet—also publicly called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu to define a political end state in the Gaza Strip on May 15.[17]
Key Takeaways:
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 98th Division continued to conduct clearing operations in Jabalia on May 19. Three IDF brigades are currently operating in Jabalia under the 98th Division.[18]
The IDF 7th Brigade engaged Palestinian fighters and located
explosives, rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, grenades, and small
arms.[19] Israeli forces also seized a lathe for producing rockets.[20]
The IDF 636th Reconnaissance Unit directed dozens of airstrikes on
Palestinian cells and additional targets to support ground operations in
Jabalia.[21]
Several Palestinian militias defended against Israeli advances into
Jabalia using rocket-propelled grenades (RPG), anti-tank fire,
improvised explosive devices, rockets, and mortars in at least 20
attacks.[22]
Two IDF brigades continued operations along the Netzarim corridor and near the US-built humanitarian aid pier.[23] Two Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces with small arms and mortar fire along the corridor on May 19.[24]
Palestinian fighters have reduced their rate of attack on the Netzarim
corridor since early May, when the IDF began clearing operations in the
southern and northern Gaza Strip.
The IDF Air Force struck and killed several Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip on May 19. The IDF Air Force killed two tactical-level Hamas commanders in Rafah who were preparing to attack Israeli forces.[25]
The IDF Air Force also killed senior Hamas logistics commander Azmi Abu
Daqa in an unspecified area of the Gaza Strip. The IDF said that Daqa
facilitated weapons and money transfers to the Gaza Strip.[26] An IDF drone strike also reportedly killed Palestinian police investigations chief Zahar al Kholi in the central Gaza Strip.[27]
The IDF deployed an additional brigade to eastern Rafah. An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that the IDF 12th Reservist Infantry Brigade entered Rafah.[28] The IDF said that it “deepened” operations in Rafah on May 18.[29]
A Palestinian journalist reported on May 19 that Israeli armor advanced
westward deeper into the Jninah, Salam, and Brazil neighborhoods of
eastern Rafah.[30] Three Palestinian militias claimed attacks on Israeli forces advancing in the al Salam neighborhood.[31] Hamas fighters continued to mortar the Rafah crossing area, where Israeli forces have set up a military position.[32]
An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that the IDF assesses that
about 800,000 Palestinians have already evacuated eastern Rafah into
Khan Younis, al Mawasi, Deir al Balah, and western Rafah.[33]
Palestinian
militias have conducted at least two indirect fire attacks from the
Gaza Strip into Israel since CTP-ISW's data cut off on May 18.[34] The IDF said one rocket fired from the central Gaza Strip landed in the Mediterranean Sea near Ashkelon on May 18.[35]
PIJ and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which is a
leftist Palestinian militia aligned with Hamas in the war, fired at
least one rocket at Sderot in a combined attack on May 19.[36]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
Israeli
forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least three locations in
the West Bank since CTP-ISW's data cut off on May 18.[37] The
al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades targeted Israeli forces with improvised
explosive devices and small arms fire in Qalqilya and Nablus.[38]
Israel’s
Central Command conducted a previously unannounced training exercise to
prepare Israeli forces in the West Bank for “extreme scenarios.”[39] Israeli
forces trained alongside the Israeli Air Force and Special Units to
simulate mobilization for offensive and defensive operations in “complex
terrorist incidents” and other scenarios.[40]
This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance objectives:
Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 11
attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on May
18.[41] The IDF intercepted a ”suspicious aerial target” that entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon.[42] The IDF Air Force bombed Hezbollah fighters operating near a military building in Maroun al Ras, southern Lebanon.[43]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
Iran and Axis of Resistance
The
Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi
militias—claimed a drone attack targeting Eilat, Israel, on May 18.[44] Israeli officials and media have not commented on the claimed attack at the time of this writing.
[1] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/30/3088772
[2] https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Iran_1989
[3] https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Iran_1989
[4] https://www.president dot ir/en/130489 ;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-22-2023
[5] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1234
[6] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm524 ;
https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/mohammad-mokhber-first-vice-president-of-iran
[7] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1185 ;
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm524
[8] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-30-2023 ;
https://parsi.euronews dot com/2024/03/07/a-look-at-iran-assepmbly-of-experts-elections-who-will-be-the-leader
[9] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403020274
[10]
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-sole-moderate-presidential-candidate-congratulates-raisi-his-victory-state-2021-06-19/
[11] https://www.axios.com/2024/05/18/benny-gantz-israel-netanyahu-gaza-war
[12] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/gantz-sets-out-the-6-strategic-goals-the-coalition-must-adopt-or-his-party-will-bolt/
[13]
https://www.timesofisrael dot
com/liveblog_entry/gantz-sets-out-the-6-strategic-goals-the-coalition-must-adopt-or-his-party-will-bolt/
[14]
https://www.timesofisrael dot
com/liveblog_entry/gantz-sets-out-the-6-strategic-goals-the-coalition-must-adopt-or-his-party-will-bolt/
;
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/18/benny-gantz-israel-netanyahu-gaza-war
[15] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/politics/israel-saudi-arabia-gaza.html
[16] https://t.me/moriahdoron/10289
[17] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/gallant-to-pm-reject-israeli-military-civil-rule-of-gaza-after-hamas-i-wont-allow-it/
[18] https://t.me/moriahdoron/10288
[19] www dot idf.il/201866
[20] www dot idf.il/201866
[21] www dot idf.il/201866
[22] https://t.me/AymanGouda/6148
; https://t.me/AymanGouda/6150 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6465 ;
https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6466 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6467
;https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2209 ;https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2210 ;
https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2216 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17889 ;
https://t.me/sarayaps/17891 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17900 ;
https://t.me/sarayaps/17901 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17902 ;
https://t.me/sarayaps/17905 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17907 ;
https://t.me/sarayaps/17908 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17909 ;
https://t.me/darebmojahden/4758
[23] https://t.me/moriahdoron/10288
[24] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2211 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6462
[25] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1792156387809657121
[26] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1792156384793903363
[27] https://t.me/moriahdoron/10300
[28] https://t.me/moriahdoron/10288
[29] https://www.idf dot il/201523
[30] https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1792183300435435539
[31] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4252 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17897 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17899 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6463
[32]
HYPERLINK
"https://x.com/ytirawi/status/1789620688350785979"https://x.com/ytirawi/status/1789620688350785979
; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2213
[33] https://t.me/moriahdoron/10301
[34] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1791908676397060511 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17892 ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4251 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1792076706800681003
[35] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1791908676397060511
[36] https://t.me/sarayaps/17892 ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4251
[37] https://t.me/jeninqassamm/7224; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6460; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6456
[38] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6456;
https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6456;
https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6460;
[39] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792228456521941088
[40] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792228456521941088; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792228467288789413
[41] https://t.me/mmirleb/4016 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/51080 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/51081 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4017 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4019 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4021 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4023 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4025 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4027 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4028 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1792241777119723616
[42] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792241777119723616
[43] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792188282643849374
[44] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1133
