Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl
The
Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing
timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments
pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers
political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides
insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that
undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The
Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with
support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these
updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please
subscribe here.
The
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.
The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian
regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents.
It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability
and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and
Iranian-backed militia positions.
Key Takeaways
- The
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has sent over 60 Iranian-backed
militants to Daraa Province to prevent the expansion of the ongoing,
anti-Syrian regime protests in southern Syria.
- Leaders from
Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad met in Beirut
and echoed Iranian leaders’ calls for greater cooperation among these
groups against Israel.
- Iranian authorities are continuing to
take measures to deter and prevent anti-regime protests ahead of the
anniversaries of Mahsa Amini’s death and the “Bloody Friday” incident on
September 16 and 30, respectively.
Iranian Activities in the Levant
This
section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s
economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant
especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns
that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will
update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in
future updates.
The Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps has sent over 60 Iranian-backed militants to Daraa Province
to prevent the expansion of the ongoing, anti-Syrian regime protests in
southern Syria.[1] The
militants include Iraqi, Lebanese, and Syrian fighters and are
operating under Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Iranian-backed Syrian
Arab Army 4th Division, according to Syrian opposition reports on
September 7. The militants will reportedly cooperate with the 4th
Division to stoke instability in Daraa and Suwayda provinces and blame
ISIS, which would provide the regime a pretext for a harsher crackdown
on demonstrators. These reports came as separate opposition reports
claimed that Syrian regime military and security officers met in Daraa
City to discuss how to control the anti-regime protests that have
fluctuated throughout Syria since mid-August 2023. The reports that the
IRGC is cooperating with the Bashar al Assad regime to impose social
control is consistent with ISW’s previous reporting that Iranian-backed
snipers deployed to southern Syria twice in late August 2023, likely to
deter and prevent the expansion of protests.[2]
Leaders
from LH, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) met in Beirut and
echoed Iranian leaders’ calls for greater cooperation among these groups
against Israel. The meeting occurred on September 2 and
included LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas deputy head Saleh
al Arouri, and PIJ head Ziyad al Nakhalah.[3]
This meeting is especially noteworthy given how rare such meetings
between all three figures are. Hamas and PIJ leadership similarly met in
Gaza in August 2023 to discuss enhancing cooperation against Israel.[4]
These meetings come as Iranian leaders have increasingly emphasized the
importance of greater cohesion and unity across the resistance groups
opposing Israel.[5]
Iranian Domestic and Political Affairs
This
section covers factors and trends affecting regime decision-making and
stability. CTP will cover domestic politics, significant protest
activity, and related issues here.
Iranian
authorities are continuing to take measures to deter and prevent
anti-regime protests ahead of the anniversaries of Mahsa Amini’s death
and the “Bloody Friday” incident on September 16 and 30, respectively. Protest coordinators and organizations have planned demonstrations in the coming weeks, as CTP previously reported.[6]
- Iranian intelligence services announced the arrest of a network of protest planners on September 7.[7]
The regime similarly arrested a group of women’s rights activists on
August 17 for planning to “incite chaos and vandalism” on the
anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death.[8]
- The
regime is planning outreach to Iran’s Sunni minority community likely
to reduce the risk of major unrest in the eastern Iranian provinces.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will meet with residents from Sistan and
Baluchistan and South Khorasan provinces on September 11.[9]
Demonstrations against the regime have occurred weekly in Sistan and
Baluchistan Province since regime security forces violently suppressed
protesters in Zahedan in September 2022 in an event that became known as
“Bloody Friday.”[10]
[1] https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/09/07/9616
[2] https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/28/9537 ; https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/31/9557
[3] https://www.almanar.com.lb/10914719
[4]
https://www.al-akhbar.com/Palestine/368992/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87
[5] https://farsi.khamenei.ir/others-dialog?id=50786
[6] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-6-2023
[7] https://www.irna dot ir/news/85222021
[8] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/05/26/2942428
[9] https://www.irna dot ir/news/85221118 ;
https://www.irna dot ir/news/85222439
[10] https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/22/iran-bloody-friday-crackdown-years-deadliest
