By: Brandon Wallace
Key Takeaway: Iraq’s
President Barham Salih asked Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi to attempt to form a
government and serve as prime minister. Allawi holds no parliamentary, popular,
or military leverage and is unlikely to gain the necessary political capital to
address the demands of protesters or challenge parliamentary powerbrokers.
Allawi will not immediately take office – his cabinet must still be formed and
approved.
Iraqi President Barham
Salih formally nominated former Minister of Communication Mohammed Tawfiq
Allawi to replace the caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mehdi.[1]
Former Prime Minister Mehdi had originally resigned on November 29, 2019 following
a brutal crackdown against an ongoing popular protest movement, which prompted Iraq’s
highest religious authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, publicly to
withdraw his support. Iraq’s parliament accepted the resignation but left Mehdi
and his government in place as caretakers until the President selected a new premier.[2]
President Salih had to enforce
a self-imposed deadline for political action to name a premier. President
Salih announced on January 29, 2020 that he set a deadline of February 1 for
the largest political blocs in Iraq to agree upon a candidate whom Salih could
invite to form a government. [3]
The law originally required Salih to identify a replacement premier by December
15, 2019. However, Salih attempted to pass his constitutional responsibilities to
the speaker of parliament and disregarded the constitutional deadlines.[4]
President Salih did not nominate a premier from the largest bloc within
the Iraqi parliament as the Constitution requires. Instead, Salih, in concert with the largest
political blocs, selected the candidate who faced the least political
resistance.
President Salih selected
the candidate who faced the least parliamentary resistance to attempt to form a
government. Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi emerged as a potential compromise
candidate during internal political discussions in mid-January. President Salih
reportedly cleared Allawi and three additional candidates as acceptable premiers
with Iranian proxy leader Hadi al-Ameri as well as other major bloc leaders in
a conversation on January 19.[5]
The leaders of the two largest political blocs, Ameri’s Conquest Alliance and
Moqtada al-Sadr's Toward Reform, had reportedly agreed on Allawi by January 30.[6]
However, anonymous sources told reporters that Conquest Alliance member and
State of Law leader Nouri al-Maliki was lobbying the political blocs to reject
Allawi. [7]
President Salih appears to have named Allawi with the approval of Ameri and
Sadr despite Maliki’s disapproval. President Salih likely calculated that
Allawi could form a government that would gain the absolute majority of 165 members
of parliament needed to approve the Cabinet and the premier.
PM-designee Allawi emerged
as a consensus candidate, not outright vetoed by any powerful actor in Iraq. The
elite politicians, the Shi’a religious leadership, Iran, and the U.S. all
reportedly raised no red line objection to Allawi, according to AFP.[8] The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad welcomed the
nomination but stressed it “must be followed up with efforts… [to form] an
independent and honest government committed to addressing the needs of the
Iraqi people.”[9] The
powerful actors that shape Iraq did not reject Allawi, but his actions are
constrained.
PM-designee Allawi holds no
political leverage in the parliament. The position of PM-designee is
Allawi’s first position since leaving government in 2012. Allawi was not
selected for PM while serving as a sitting member of parliament.[10]
Allawi twice served as Minister of Communications in 2006 and 2010-2012 under
the Premiership of Nour al-Maliki. Allawi resigned twice in protest of Maliki’s
corruption and sectarian actions.[11]
Allawi, during his ministerial post, was a member of the secular Iraqiyah
Coalition led by his cousin Iyad Allawi which since dissolved.[12]
Allawi is viewed now as malleable. Allawi’s own description of his career from
Facebook indicates he has not joined a new political party since leaving
government.[13] One anonymous Iraqi official
told the National, “’Iran wants him because he is weak... That's why Mr. Sadr
and Mr. Amiri have supported him.’”[14]
Allawi has no mandate and faces
popular opposition. Prime Minister-designate Allawi addressed the country
on February 1 via the official channel and office of the Prime Minister,
welcoming the opportunity to form a government.[15]
Allawi promised to form a more representative cabinet, hold early parliamentary
elections, and ensure formal charges are brought against those who killed and
injured protesters since early October. Hours earlier, Allawi had addressed the
country with a message posted to his Twitter account, saying “I will ask you to
keep up the protests, because if you are not with me, I won't be able to do
anything.” [16]
Allawi recognizes he lacks leverage without popular support. Yet, demonstrators
have already begun demonstrating against Allawi across central and southern
Iraqi cities, including chanting, “Allawi is rejected, Allawi is rejected!”[17]
Demonstrators associate Allawi with the political establishment and identify
him as a pawn of the corrupt powerbrokers. A self-organized group of protesters
in the southern city of Nasiryah issued a written statement calling Allawi a “candidate
that belongs to the sectarian power sharing political system we are protesting
against,” categorically rejecting him. [18]
Moqtada
al-Sadr is seeking to suppress and redirect popular street opposition away from
Allawi. Sadr previously withdrew his cover for Iraq’s popular protest
movement on January 24, setting conditions for a subsequent security crackdown
against the protesters by Iraqi government and Iranian proxy militia forces.
Protesters railed against the act as a “betrayal.” [19]
Sadr reversed this position on January 31 by attempting to re-establish himself
among the popular protesters. Sadr issued a statement calling for mass
demonstrations and sit-ins writing that all demonstrators are brothers and forbid
people from “mentioning my name [Moqtada al-Sadr.]”[20]
However, Sadr did not provide genuine support to the protesters. Rather, he
undermined his own populist, nationalist, and reformist agenda by siding with
the Iranian proxy network and political elite. Sadr issued a second statement
via Twitter on February 1 endorsing Allawi calling it “a good step.” [21]
Sadr then instructed his supporters known as “blue hats” to intimidate and
clear anti-Allawi protesters from central Baghdad overnight on February 1. The
blue hats armed with batons beat demonstrators and took control of the “Turkish
restaurant” – an unfinished building that serves as logistical and organizing
hub for protesters.[22]
President Salih has re-created
the conditions of the Mehdi government by choosing a compromise candidate who cannot
implement the reforms favored by protesters or ensure that Iraq’s elections
break the elite politicians’ monopoly on power. If Allawi can form a
government, he will be viewed as responsible for holding new elections. Moqtada
al-Sadr’s own advisor admitted that Allawi is receiving support from the
established political elite so that he can call for snap elections – not to
overhaul the system.[23]
Iraq passed a new electoral law on December 24, 2019 in a shallow attempt to
placate protester demands.[24]
The law does not adequately prevent parties from retaining their collective
power and does not establish the necessary mechanism for carrying out the new
elections. The 2019 election law did
away with party lists, which were widely seen as a key source of corruption.
Party lists prevented voters from casting votes for individuals, instead
allowing them to only vote for a grouping of pre-determined candidates by
party. The 2019 election law also divides Iraq into districts rather than
provinces. The Government of Iraq has no agreed upon census data upon which to
establish electoral districts. The 2019 law also does not prevent national
parties from flooding money and candidates into districts only to reorganize as
parties in parliament. Allawi is unlikely to gather the political capital
necessary to execute reforms or fair elections. Indeed, Iraqi political parties
may have agreed to his premiership precisely because they would prefer a weak
caretaker prior to elections. Political elite are more likely to repress
protesters with a weak PM in office. However, the designation of Allawi
furthers the very conditions that protesters are demonstrating against.
[1] Aziz El Yaakoubi
and Nadine Awadalla, “Iraqi president appoints Mohammed Allawi as new PM: state
TV,” Reuters, February 1, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-politics/iraqi-president-appoints-mohammed-allawi-as-new-pm-state-tv-idUSKBN1ZV3SY.
[2] Jason Zhou,
Brandon Wallace, and Katherine Lawlor,” Iraq Situation Report: November 29 -
December 9,” Institute for the Study of War, December 13, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/12/iraq-situation-report-november-29.html.
[3] [”Barham Saleh gives political blocs four days to resolve the
nomination of Prime Minister-designate,”] NINA, January 29, 2020, https://ninanews(.)com/Website/News/Details?key=810113.
[4] Brandon Wallace
and Katherine Lawlor,” Iraq Situation Report: December 10 - 18, 2019, ” Institute
for the Study of War, December 19, 2020, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/12/iraq-situation-report-december-10-18.html.
[5] [“Iraq .. Expectations of an impending decisive candidate for the
Prime Minister,”] al-Jazeera, January 20, 2020, https://www.aljazeera(.)net/news/politics/2020/1/20/%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%B4%D9%8A%D9%83-%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%AD-%D8%B1%D8%A6%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1.
[6] [”News about the 'other' and 'Al-Fatah' consensus on a new candidate
to succeed Abdul-Mahdi,”] Sot al-Iraq, January 30, 2020, https://www.sotaliraq(.)com/2020/01/30/%d8%a3%d9%86%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%b9%d9%86-%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%82-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%aa%d8%ad-%d8%ad%d9%88/.
[7] [” Maliki’s office denies that there has been contact with the
President of the Republic about the candidate for prime minister,”] Sumaria,
January 30, 2020, https://www.alsumaria(.)tv/news/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/333073/%D9%85%D9%83%D8%AA%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84.
[8] Ammar
Karim, “Iraqi president names new PM, dividing protesters,” AFP, February 1,
2020, https://news.yahoo.com/stalemate-over-iraq-pm-pick-deadline-looms-111403795.html.
[9]
U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Facebook, February 1, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/USEmbassyBaghdad/posts/10158072475769304.
[10] Mohammed Tawfiq
Allawi, Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/pg/mohammed.t.allawi/about/?ref=page_internal; Alissa J. Rubin,
“Iraq Names New Prime Minister Who Praises ‘Bravery’ of Protesters,” New York Times, February 1, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/middleeast/iraq-names-new-prime-minister-who-praises-bravery-of-protesters.html.
[11] ”Iraqi Blocs
Select New PM-Designate After Weeks of Jockeying,” Associated Press,
February 1, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/01/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iraq-prime-minister-.html.
[12] Stephen Wicken,
”IRAQ WEEKLY UPDATE #35”, Institute for the Study of War, August 31,
2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iraq-weekly-update-35.
[13] Mohammed
Tawfiq Allawi, Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/pg/mohammed.t.allawi/about/?ref=page_internal.
[14] Mina Aldroubi, ” Iraq: two
names emerge as possible PM candidate,” the National, January 30, 2020, https://www.thenational(.)ae/world/mena/iraq-two-names-emerge-as-possible-pm-candidates-1.971985.
[15] Government of
Iraq, Twitter, February 1, 2020, https://twitter.com/IraqiGovt/status/1223736252463222784.
[16] Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi, Twitter, February 1, 2020, https://twitter.com/MohammedAllawi/status/1223618782725361665; Ammar Karim,” Iraqi president names new PM, dividing protesters,” AFP,
February 1, 2020, https://www.yahoo.com/news/stalemate-over-iraq-pm-pick-deadline-looms-111403795.html.
[17] Maya Gebeily,
Twitter, February 1, 2020 https://twitter.com/GebeilyM/status/1223634770615308288; Mustafa Salim,
Twitter, February 1, 2020, https://twitter.com/Mustafa_salimb/status/1223628821238362112.
[18]
Linah Alsaafin, “Mohammed Allawi appointed new Iraq PM, protesters reject him,”
al-Jazeera, February 1, 2020, https://www.aljazeera(.)com/news/2020/02/iraq-president-appoints-mohammed-allawi-pm-state-tv-200201150554113.html.
[19] Katherine
Lawlor and Brandon Wallace, “Sadr Withdraws Support for Iraq's Popular Protest
Movement,” Institute for the Study of War, January 29, 2020, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2020/01/sadr-withdraws-support-for-iraqs.html.
[20]
Moqtada al-Sadr Calls on Iraqis to Renew Peaceful Anti-Government Protests in
Baghdad,” SITE Intelligence Group,
January 31, 2020, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/muqtada-al-sadr-calls-iraqis-to-renew-peaceful-anti-government-protests-in-baghdad.html.
[21] “Washington:
Iraq Needs Government That Meets the Needs of Its People,” Asharq al-Awsat,
February 2, 2020, https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2111351/washington-iraq-needs-government-meets-needs-its-people.
[22]
Aziz El Yaakoubi and Nadine Awadalla, “Iraqi cleric Sadr tells followers to
clear sit-ins after PM appointed,” Reuters, February 2, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-protests/iraqi-cleric-sadr-tells-followers-to-clear-sit-ins-after-pm-appointed-idUSKBN1ZW0DW.
[23] Haider
al-Jabri, Twitter, February 1, 2020, https://twitter.com/haideraljabri2/status/1223690652552253445.
[24] Falih Hassan and
Alissa J. Rubin, ”Iraq’s New Election Law Draws Much Criticism and Few Cheers,”
New York Times, December 24, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/24/world/middleeast/iraq-election-law.html.