By Jonathan Mautner
Russia conducted aggressive air
operations in central Syria from March 20 – April 3 in order to simultaneously
blunt an opposition offensive and advance the radicalization of the armed
opposition. Al Qaeda’s
Syrian affiliate and a contingent of U.S.-backed
opposition groups seized at least fifteen towns in northern Hama Province from
pro-regime forces from March 21 – 23, advancing within four
kilometers of regime-held Hama City. In response, Russian warplanes targeted
a swathe of core opposition terrain linking northern Hama and southern Idlib Provinces
over the next two weeks, fixing the movement of opposition fighters vying to
reinforce the offensive. Russia also conducted high tempo air operations behind front lines during this
period in an effort to overwhelm emergency response capabilities and press
opposition forces into civil defense roles. At the same time, Russia
intensified its air operations in northern Damascus
City and its Eastern
Ghouta Suburbs after Salafi-jihadi factions and U.S.-backed opposition group
Faylaq al Rahman
jointly lifted the pro-regime
siege on the Qabun and Barzeh Districts of Damascus on March
21. In tandem with the redeployment of more capable regime ground units, the dramatic
surge in Russian airstrikes effectively
reversed much of the opposition advance near Hama City and enabled
pro-regime forces to reinstate
the siege. Absent a viable challenge to their air supremacy, Russian
warplanes will continue to confer an asymmetric advantage to pro-regime forces in
the Syrian Civil War.
Russia also continued its systematic
campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure in opposition-held towns,
routinely striking bakeries
and hospitals in northern Hama and southern Idlib Provinces beginning
on March 22. Russia’s target set and use of munitions designed to inflict
severe casualties in densely populated terrain reflects its intent to punish
and deter civilian populations that support the opposition. In pursuit of these
aims, Russia conducted heavy
waves of airstrikes against opposition-held Jisr al Shughur in western
Idlib Province from March 27 – April 3, striking the city with cluster munitions almost
daily after prominent Salafi-jihadi group Ahrar al Sham downed a regime helicopter in nearby
Jabal al Akrad. By conducting such punitive operations in the context of an air
campaign focused primarily on the acceptable opposition, Russia has deliberately
encouraged both the political radicalization of more moderate factions and
their military dependence on Salafi-jihadi groups. The participation of
U.S.-backed factions in the al Qaeda-led Hama and Damascus offensives marks
just one of the more recent indicators of Russia’s success in coercing the
acceptable opposition into such coordination. By its design, Russia will
continue to exploit the increasingly radical nature of the armed opposition in
order to bolster the ostensible legitimacy of the pro-regime alliance and continue
its air campaign in Syria with relative impunity.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.
High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this map was published with ISIS control underrepresented in eastern Aleppo Province.