by Saagar Enjeti
Nine districts in four Northern provinces have reportedly been contested by
the Taliban over the last eight days from September 23 to October 1 in
conjunction with the recent Taliban offensive to seize Kunduz
city. Among
these nine districts, four district centers have fallen to the Taliban in
neighboring Takhar province. These attacks appear to be a united offensive
Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the leader of one prominent Taliban faction and self-proclaimed
leader of the Taliban following the announcement of the death of Mullah Omar. The
coordinated attacks throughout northern Afghanistan indicate a high level of
operational capability and sophistication. A prolonged offensive and
consolidation of Taliban control in northern Afghanistan could position
elements loyal to Mullah Akhatar Mansour for follow-on assaults on several
provincial capitals at once and provide Taliban elements with a staging area close to Kabul.
Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) retook key elements of Kunduz
city on October 1, but heavy fighting
continues between ANSF and Taliban militants. The attacks throughout
northern Afghanistan indicate that Taliban militants are executing a broader
northern offensive in Kunduz, Baghlan, Takhar, and Badakhshan provinces. The northern
offensive is supported by Taliban activity along major resupply routes to
Kunduz city via Baghlan province, where militants were able to stymie nearly
one thousand ANSF reinforcements bound for Kunduz. This lightning offensive is likely designed to
reinforce Taliban gains in Kunduz city while the ANSF counter-offensive is
underway, but it is also gaining momentum faster than the ANSF is reclaiming
territory. The loss of broad swaths of strategically important territory
underscores growing ANSF inability to control and hold areas without the
intervention of Afghan and NATO Special Forces.
Updated 10/2/2015 10:31am (EDT): Mullah Akhtar Mansour emphasized the “symbolic victory” of the Taliban’s capture of Kunduz in his first interview with an international media outlet as the claimed leader of the Taliban. Mansour stated that the victory should silence dissidents doubting the ability of his forces, thus conflating the capture of Kunduz with Mansour’s own legitimacy. This interview confirms that Mansour launched the northern offensive in part to demonstrate his power and suppress opposition. Ongoing leadership disputes within the Taliban likely will fuel continued offensives in Takhar and Baghlan Provinces.
Updated 10/2/2015 10:31am (EDT): Mullah Akhtar Mansour emphasized the “symbolic victory” of the Taliban’s capture of Kunduz in his first interview with an international media outlet as the claimed leader of the Taliban. Mansour stated that the victory should silence dissidents doubting the ability of his forces, thus conflating the capture of Kunduz with Mansour’s own legitimacy. This interview confirms that Mansour launched the northern offensive in part to demonstrate his power and suppress opposition. Ongoing leadership disputes within the Taliban likely will fuel continued offensives in Takhar and Baghlan Provinces.