UA-69458566-1

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Iran Update, August 31, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions.

Key Takeaways

  1. Iranian-backed militias have continued to deploy into territory held by the US-backed SDF in northeastern Syria to conduct assassinations and fuel tribal disputes. These efforts support the Iranian campaign to expel the United States from Syria.
  2. Iranian-backed militias have reportedly deployed from Iraq to Damascus for protest suppression. These deployments highlight the capacity of the IRGC to manage multiple efforts in Syria simultaneously.
  3. The Iranian foreign affairs minister affirmed Tehran's intent to maintain a long-term military presence in Syria.
  4. A senior Iranian nuclear official downplayed the threat of the Iranian nuclear program during an Arabic-language interview with Al Jazeera, possibly to assuage Saudi concerns about Iranian nuclear activities and discourage Saudi leaders from building their own program.

Iranian Activities in the Levant

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Armed groups, including Iranian-backed militias, have continued to deploy personnel into territory held by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conduct assassinations and fuel tribal disputes. These armed groups include the Baqir Brigade, National Defense Forces (NDF), and Syrian Air Force intelligence. The Baqir Brigade and Syrian Air Force intelligence have ties to the IRGC Quds Force. These deployments come as clashes have erupted between the SDF and its primary subordinate military force in Deir ez Zor Province—the Deir ez Zor Military Council (DMC)—since August 27. Iranian-backed efforts to stoke instability in SDF-held territory would undermine attempts by the US-led International Coalition to deescalate the situation.[1] These Iranian-backed efforts also support the Iranian campaign to expel the United States from Syria.

  • Local Syrian opposition media reported on August 31 that the Baqir Brigade, NDF, and Syrian Air Force intelligence sent militants into SDF-held territory.[2] The Baqir Brigade sent militias into Kasra on August 31.[3] The Baqir Brigade leader called for escalation against the SDF and tribal support for the DMC.[4] The NDF and Syrian Air Force Intelligence sent militants to Dhiban.[5] The IRGC Quds Force previously tasked 25 Iraqi militants on August 28 with conducting sabotage and taking advantage of instability in SDF-held territory, as CTP previously reported.[6]
  • The SDF arrested DMC commander Ahmed Abu Khawla on August 27 and began moving reinforcements into Deir ez Zor Province on the same day.[7] The arrest spurred major clashes between the SDF and DMC as well as local tribes. Both sides have suffered dozens of casualties in the fighting, making these clashes deadlier and more significant than the previous SDF-DMC fighting in July 2023.
  • CTP and ISW have previously assessed that Iran is coordinating Russia and the Syrian regime to coerce the United States to withdraw forces from Syria.[8] The Iranian-backed militant deployments into SDF-held territory support this campaign by creating an increasingly hostile operating environment for US forces.

Iranian-backed militias have deployed from Iraq to Damascus for protest suppression, according to Syrian opposition media. Anti-Syrian regime protests have erupted in Syria since mid-August 2023 in response to the increasingly dire state of the economy and poor regime governance. The Iranian-backed militias sent to Damascus may be preparing to crackdown on the mass protests planned for September 1. The reported details on the militias, including that they are equipped with sniper rifles, is consistent with how the Iranian regime use their own security services to suppress internal unrest.

  • Iranian-backed militias sent three buses of militants from Iraq to Damascus between August 27 and 31.[9] The militants had training on sniper rifles and urban warfare and were comprised of Iranians, Iraqis, and Afghans. The buses contained Shia pilgrims as well, which is consistent with CTP’s previous reporting that Iranian-backed militias disguise themselves as pilgrims.[10]
  • The ongoing anti-regime protests in Syria have centered in Suwayda Province, which is southeast of Damascus, but also are occurring in Aleppo, Daraa, Deir ez Zor, Idlib, Raqqa, and Rif Dimashq provinces.[11] Disaffected Syrians in all provinces have shown support for the movement on social media and in limited acts of civil disobedience.[12] Protests have paralyzed economic, political, and social life in southern Syria by blocking roads, closing businesses and government offices, and disrupting countrywide exams.[13]
  • Protesters have called for mass demonstrations in all Syrian cities on September 1. Thousands of protesters gathered during the previous Friday’s mass demonstrations.[14] A local activist in Suwayda Province told local media that the upcoming demonstrations “will probably be the most intense in terms of participation.”[15]
  • The Iranian regime has a long history of using violence to impose social control domestically. Iranian state security services have extensive training in urban warfare and using sniper rifles.[16] These services have used snipers against protesters in most major protest waves in Iran in recent years.[17]

The deployment of Iranian-backed militias from Iraq to Damascus highlights the capacity of the IRGC to manage multiple efforts in Syria simultaneously. As reported above, Iran is coordinating with Russia and the Assad regime to expel the United States from Syria. This campaign involved Iran surging forces and materiel to the line of contact with the SDF in July 2023.[18] The fact that Iran sent militants from Iraq to Damascus highlights how Iran brought additional resources into Syria rather than drawing down its force presence around the line of contact with the SDF. Doing so allows Iran to continue to pressure the United States and SDF while also preparing for a possible protest crackdown around Damascus.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian affirmed Iranian leaders’ intent to maintain a long-term military presence in Syria during a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus on August 31. Abdollahian stated that Iran will continue to help the Syrian regime combat terrorism.[19] Abdollahian previously emphasized that Iran seeks to maintain Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity on August 30.[20] CTP and ISW have extensively reported in recent months on Tehran‘s continued efforts to entrench its military influence in Syria.[21] The Arab League issues a statement in May 2023 rejecting external support for non-state militias.[22]

Iranian Domestic and Political Affairs

This section covers factors and trends affecting regime decision-making and stability. CTP will cover domestic politics, significant protest activity, and related issues here.

A senior Iranian nuclear official downplayed the threat of the Iranian nuclear program during an Arabic-language interview with Al Jazeera on August 31.[23] This interview may have been meant to assuage Saudi concerns about Iranian nuclear activities and discourage Saudi leaders from building their own program. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Chief Mohammad Eslami stated in the interview that Tehran is prepared for “constructive” nuclear cooperation with the Gulf states. Eslami also suggested that the regime is seeking to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which would reimpose constraints on Iranian nuclear activities. This interview comes as Western and Israeli media have reported that Saudi leaders are seeking help from the United States to develop their own domestic nuclear program in exchange for normalizing ties with Israel.[24]



[2] https://deirezzor24 dot net/en/the-assad-regime-and-iranian-militias-are-planting-cells-in-the-countryside-of-deir-ezzor

[4] https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/28/9538

[9] https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/31/9557; https://eyeofeuphrates dot com/ar/news/2023/08/28/9537

[14] https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2023/8/25/anti-government-protests-in-syria-continue-for-sixth-day

[19] https://www.irna dot ir/news/85216626

[20] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/08/30/2949597

[23] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/2023/8/31/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B0%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%B7-%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA

[24] https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-seeks-u-s-security-pledges-nuc... ; https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-754159 ; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/gallant-said-to-press-us-for-clarifications-on-proposed-saudi-nuclear-program/  

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Iran Update, August 30, 2023

Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, and Annika Ganzeveld 

The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions.

Key Takeaways

  1. The Iranian foreign minister traveled to Damascus, where he discussed economic cooperation and political stability with Syrian officials. The trip comes two weeks after the start of daily anti-regime demonstrations that protest the Assad regime raising fuel prices.
  2. Iranian officials are signaling that the regime will pursue nuclear negotiations, probably with the aim to achieve a comprehensive agreement.
  3. Russia has begun transporting consumer goods to Saudi Arabia via Iran. The transit of Russian goods to Saudi Arabia via Iran is consistent with Iran’s efforts to become a regional and international “transit hub.”
 

Iranian Activities in the Levant

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with several Syrian officials in Damascus on August 30 to discuss economic cooperation and political stability. Abdollahian’s conversation with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous focused on implementing the economic memorandums of understanding (MOUs) signed during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Syria in May 2023.[1] Syrian and Iranian political leaders last met to implement the MOUs in July 2023 in Tehran.[2] Abdollahian affirmed that Iran will continue to support Syria’s leaders, military, and people until the country is stabilized and prosperous in a press conference with Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Faisal Mikdad.[3]

Abdollahian’s visit to Damascus comes at a time of political, economic, and security disruption for the regime. Daily anti-regime protests have occurred since the Assad regime raised fuel prices on August 15.[4] Iranian media’s framing of the visit suggests that Abdollahian addressed the internal unrest in his meetings. Iranian state media announced the visit by underlining the need to establish stability and tranquility in Syria.[5] It also reiterated Bashar al Assad’s previous statement that Iran and Syria have maintained stable relations through severe political and security crises.

Iranian Domestic and Political Affairs

This section covers factors and trends affecting the regime’s decision-making and stability. CTP will cover domestic politics, significant protest activity, and related issues here.

Iranian officials are signaling that the regime will pursue nuclear negotiations, probably with the aim to achieve a comprehensive agreement. Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani stated on August 28 that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, will engage in negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA on the sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting starting on September 5.[6] President Ebrahim Raisi stated on August 29 that Iran is pushing to revive the JCPOA and lift sanctions.[7] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Raisi administration officials on August 30 to counter the impact of economic sanctions and expressed approval of sanctions-lifting nuclear negotiations.[8] Khamenei has previously endorsed comprehensive nuclear negotiations ahead of UN General Assembly meetings where Iranian officials would be able to meet with Western leaders.[9]

These signals follow Iran and the United States concluding an agreement to exchange prisoners for unfrozen Iranian assets on August 10.[10] The prisoner-asset exchange deal is reportedly part of a larger interim agreement that involves constraints on the Iranian nuclear program.[11] Iran previously finalized such an interim agreement in 2013 as a confidence-building measure to facilitate more comprehensive negotiations subsequently.[12]

Russia has begun transporting consumer goods to Saudi Arabia via Iran. A Russian cargo train en route to Saudi Arabia entered Iran from Turkmenistan on August 26 and arrived in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province on the Persian Gulf on August 30.[13] Hormozgan Province Railway Administration head Ali Reza Nasiri Barazandeh stated on August 30 that the International North South Transit Corridor (INSTC)—the land route connecting Russia to the Persian Gulf via Iran—has “economic and strategic benefits.”[14] He added that Iran can increase customs revenues by facilitating trade between Russia and Saudi Arabia. A Russian cargo train en route to India similarly passed through Iran for the first time in July 2022.[15]

Iran and Russia have pursued the completion of the INSTC to undermine and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. Russia agreed in May 2023 to finance the Iranian construction of the Rasht-Astara railway in Gilan Province, Iran—the missing link in the INSTC.[16] The completion of this corridor will grant Iran and Russia access to new markets and enable Iran to charge foreign countries transit fees. Iranian media previously reported that the INSTC will generate $20 billion in annual revenue for Iran once it is completed.[17]

The transit of Russian goods to Saudi Arabia via Iran is consistent with Iran’s efforts to become a regional and international “transit hub.”[18] Ebrahim Raisi administration officials have repeatedly framed Iran’s centrality in Eurasia as an important asset to regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. President Raisi emphasized Iran’s ability to connect land-locked Central Asian countries to open waters following Iran’s accession into the SCO in July 2023.[19] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian separately emphasized Iran’s ability to connect China to Brazil and South Africa during the Raisi administration’s diplomatic campaign to convince BRICS members to admit Iran in August 2023.[20]

 


[1] https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/08/30/In-Damascus-Ir...

[2] https://sana[dot]sy/en/?p=314016

[3] https://sana[dot]sy/?p=1956688

[4] https://sana dot sy/?p=1949471 ; https://suwayda24[dot]com/?p=21771

[5] https://www.tasnimnews[dot]com/en/news/2023/08/30/2949597/iran-reaffirms...

[6] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/06/2948213

[7] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/07/2948809

[8] https://www.leader dot ir/fa/content/26653 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/06/08/2949415 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2023/08/30/2949573

[9] https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/sep/17/khamenei-diplomacy-%E2%80%9... ; https://www.ft.com/content/33a7545c-249b-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca

[10] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/americans-imprisoned-iran-prisoner-ex...

[11] https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-slows-buildup-of-near-weapons-grade-en... ; https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1691548180423323649?s=20 ; https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-launches-quiet-diplomatic-push-with-ira... ; https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/14/us/politics/biden-iran-nuclear-progra...

[12] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kerry-in-geneva-r...

[13] https://www.middleeastmonitor dot com/20230828-russia-sends-first-commercial-train-to-saudi-arabia-via-iran/ ;

https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/3962277

[14] https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/3962277

[15] https://www.tehrantimes dot com/news/474603/Russia-s-1st-rail-transit-cargo-to-India-arrives-in-Iran

[16] https://president dot ir/fa/143951

[17] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/02/27/2895955

[18] https://www.siasatrooz dot ir/fa/report/124088

[19] https://president dot ir/fa/145208

[20] https://www.irna dot ir/news/85193219

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023

Angelica Evans, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 30, 2023, 7:30 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:30pm ET on August 30. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 31 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated that the drone strike destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes and possibly damaged two other planes at the Pskov airfield but did not comment on the nature of the strike or claim responsibility for it.[1] Geolocated footage and Russian sources confirmed the strike and the destruction of at least two Russian Il-76 planes.[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that over 21 Ukrainian drones struck the Pskov airfield.[3] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Russian air defenses and electronic warfare (EW) systems also downed Ukrainian drones over Oryol, Tula, Voronezh, Ryazan, Kaluga, Bryansk, and Moscow oblasts.[4] Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin stated that Russian air defenses repelled a massive Ukrainian drone strike on the Central Federal Okrug (a large administrative area including Moscow but not Pskov) and that at least one of the drones was headed toward Moscow, possibly suggesting that Russian authorities may have initially believed that Ukrainian forces intended to strike Moscow or the region around it.[5] Russian forces may have focused their air defenses on covering Moscow and somehow missed the unusually large number of Ukrainian drones that reportedly struck the Pskov airfield. The Ukrainian drones that Russian air defenses downed over the six other oblasts were likely en route to Moscow or Pskov Oblast and likely were not part of a Ukrainian effort to strike targets in the other oblasts.

Russian propagandists and milbloggers criticized Russian forces for their inability to defend Russian territory and military facilities, while simultaneously criticizing recent Russian MoD censorship efforts. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that the Ukrainian strike on the Peskov airfield indicates that Russian air defenses have not adapted to defend against repeated Ukrainian drone strikes, in contrast with how Russian air defenses in Crimea have adapted.[6] The milblogger also criticized Russian authorities for not keeping expensive military aircraft in hangars.[7] Another prominent Russian milblogger expressed concern that there will be no safe places in western Russia due to Ukraine’s growing technical capabilities and suggested that Russian forces need to take this into account when securing military and strategic facilities.[8] Still, another milblogger noted that the requirement for Russian authorities to secure and defend Russian airfields is at a “qualitatively different level” from what it had been.[9] Russian sources also challenged the Russian MoD’s recent censorship efforts by noting the need for truth and honesty in reporting about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, including one Russian milblogger who criticized official Russian television channels for not reporting the Ukrainian strikes.[10] Prominent Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov expressed his outrage in response to the drone strike and criticized Russian elites who are calling on the Kremlin to freeze the war in Ukraine and negotiate to save Russia’s economy.[11]

Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike predominantly targeting Kyiv on the night of August 29-30, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes earlier on Moscow and Pskov oblasts. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 28 Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55 air-launched cruise missiles from aircraft operating out of Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast and the Caspian Sea, and 16 Shahed-136/131 drones from Krasnodar Krai and Kursk Oblast.[12] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all 28 cruise missiles and 15 drones over Kyiv, Odesa, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[13] The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that Ukrainian forces shot down over 20 air targets over Kyiv.[14] This Russian strike was considerably larger than other Russian strikes in recent weeks and was likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and Pskov Oblasts earlier in the night.

Ukrainian light infantry - likely reconnaissance elements - infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove as of August 30. Geolocated footage published on August 30 shows Ukrainian infantry on the northwestern outskirts of Verbove, indicating that Russian control over the outskirts of the settlement is degraded.[15] The footage, however, does not indicate that Ukrainian forces established control over the area at this time, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have not yet breached the defensive line around Verbove.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were successful in the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (4-15km south of Orikhiv) and Mala Tokmachka-Verbove (7-18km southeast of Orikhiv) directions.[17] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations south of Bakhmut, and geolocated footage published on August 28 shows that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced south of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).[18] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Volodyne (13km south of Velyka Novosilka) on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border and that Russian forces had to retreat from several heights in the area.[19]

The Kremlin has reportedly undertaken several efforts to silence or confuse reports about Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s funeral, which likely indicates that the Kremlin remains worried about Prigozhin’s appeal in Russia and among Wagner forces even after his death. Two acting Russian officials told The Moscow Times that the Russian Presidential Administration and Federal Security Service (FSB) deliberately made Prigozhin’s funeral a secret to avoid further making him a martyr.[20] The officials noted that Russian Presidential Administration’s First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko, officers from several intelligence agencies, and FSB officials met to develop a plan that would prevent any chance of public outcry or protest and mislead the public about the location of Prigozhin’s burial. The Moscow Times added that there were many conflicting reports about the location of Prigozhin’s funeral on August 29. Some Russian Telegram channels noted that Russian federal channels largely ignored Prigozhin’s funeral, likely also as part of the Kremlin’s planned “coverage” of the funeral.[21] ISW continued to observe some Russian Telegram channels baselessly speculating that Prigozhin survived the crash, which may have also been an information operation to overwhelm the Russian information space with misleading reports and deflect from Prigozhin’s funeral.[22]

Some Russian officials may be probing the views of milbloggers about Prigozhin and his death to identify and censor Russian ultranationalists not clearly connected with Prigozhin or Wagner. A Russian milblogger claimed that he received a visit from “aggressive” Telegram channel advertisers who had asked him to promote several Telegram channels that exaggerated the topic of the Wagner leadership’s death in “almost an abusive manner.”[23] The milblogger noted that this request was strange because the Kremlin and the Russian state media had “already closed this topic” and he refused to promote these channels. The refusal reportedly prompted one advertiser to accuse him of supporting the rebellion and opposing Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Constitution.[24] The milblogger noted that division within Russian society would not benefit the Russian war effort. The milblogger has been consistently critical of the Russian military leadership and supportive of Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky – who had previous links to the Prigozhin but who survived the armed rebellion apparently unscathed and still in power.[25] The incident, at the very least, suggests that prominent milbloggers are self-censoring their discussions about Prigozhin’s death and have modeled their coverage of this subject on the Kremlin. The incident may also support the above outlined hypothesis that certain Russian social media actors may be attempting to overwhelm the Russian information space, or it could indicate that Russian officials are trying to identify other prominent ultranationalist voices who may be promoting insubordination of the regime or the military and tie them in some way to Prigozhin.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 30 in continued attempts to distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Kadyrov posted a picture of himself with Putin and proclaimed that he is “an infantryman of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief” and is “ready to fulfill any order” from Putin.[26] Kadyrov has repeatedly attempted to align himself with Putin and the Russian MoD and away from Prigozhin following Prigozhin’s fall from grace.[27]

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30.
  • Russian propagandists and milbloggers criticized Russian forces for their inability to defend Russian territory and military facilities, while simultaneously criticizing recent Russian MoD censorship efforts.
  • Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike predominantly targeting Kyiv on the night of August 29-30, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes earlier on Moscow and Pskov oblasts.
  • Ukrainian light infantry - likely reconnaissance elements - infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove as of August 30.
  • The Kremlin has reportedly undertaken several efforts to silence or confuse reports about Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s funeral, which likely indicates that the Kremlin remains worried about Prigozhin’s appeal in Russia and among Wagner forces even after his death.
  • Some Russian officials may be probing the views of milbloggers about Prigozhin and his death to identify and censor Russian ultranationalists not clearly connected with Prigozhin or Wagner.
  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 30 in continued attempts to distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 30 and reportedly advanced.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along at least two sectors of the front on August 30 and advanced near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly banning Wagner Group soldiers from fighting in Ukraine.
  • The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group claimed that its partisans successfully detonated an explosive at the campaign headquarters of the United Russia party in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast on August 29.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukranian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 30 and did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (13km south of Kreminna).[28] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the most intense sector of the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line is near Raihorodka (13km west of Svatove) and Kovalivka (12km southwest of Svatove), where Russian forces are conducting armored assaults.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces achieved unspecified successes near Novoyehorivka and Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk).[30] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also claimed that Russian forces are intensifying their offensive operations from the Yahidne (22km southeast of Kupyansk) direction.[31] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) and the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) continued to advance in the Kupyansk direction.[32]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 30 and did not advance. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk) in Kharkiv Oblast; Serhiivka (12km southwest of Svatove), Novoyehorivka, and the Serebryanske forest area (10km southwest of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast; and Bilohorivka (33km south of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast.[33] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Press Officer Yaroslav Yakimkin claimed that Russian forces repelled two small Ukrainian counterattacks with tank and artillery support in the Kupyansk direction.[34]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on Bakhmut’s southern flank and continued to advance as of August 30.[35] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces are gradually advancing despite Russian counterattacks.[36] Syrskyi added that the most intense engagements are near Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka (12km southwest of Bakhmut), Yahidne (directly north of Bakhmut), and Andriivka (9km southwest of Bakhmut). A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian assault groups attacked Russian positions near Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka.[37]

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces regained some previously lost positions on Bakhmut’s southern flank on August 30. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces successfully counterattacked near Kurdyumivka, which allowed Russian forces to expand their area of control in the settlement and push Ukrainian forces to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal to the west of Kurdyumivka.[38] Another Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces regained some positions near Klishchiivka.[39] The Ukrainian General Staff, however, reported that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations in Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka (14km southwest of Bakhmut), and Bohdanivka (7km northwest of Bakhmut).[40]

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line but did not make new territorial gains on August 30. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces resumed assaults on Marinka (directly west of Donetsk City).[41] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian attacks on Marinka and Novomykhailivka (30km southwest of Donetsk City).[42]



Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border and reportedly advanced on August 30. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Volodyne (13km south of Velyka Novosilka), and that Russian forces had to retreat from several heights in the area due to the threat of a tactical encirclement.[43] Other Russian milbloggers and Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that Ukrainian forces are increasing offensive activity on the Pryyutne-Staromayorske (8-18km south of Velyka Novosilka) line.[44]

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and near Vuhledar, and reportedly advanced on August 30. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced during a small arms engagement with Ukrainian forces west of Staromayorske.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack near Staromayorske.[46] Khodakovsky claimed that the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) recaptured several positions near Mykilske (27km southwest of Donetsk City) in western Donetsk Oblast on August 30.[47]

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and may have advanced west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv) on August 30. Geolocated footage published on August 30 shows that Ukrainian infantry advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Verbove, though the extent of these advances and current control over these positions are currently unclear.[48] Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance so close to Verbove indicates degraded Russian control around the settlement, however. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were successful in the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (4-15km south of Orikhiv) and Mala Tokmachka-Verbove (7-18km southeast of Orikhiv) directions.[49] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked the outskirts of Verbove overnight on August 29 to 30 and on the morning of August 30, but that Russian forces repelled the attacks.[50] One Russian milblogger characterized the Russian situation in Verbove as difficult but claimed that Ukrainian forces have not yet breached the Russian defensive line in the area.[51] Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted armored attacks near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv).[52]

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Mala Tokmachka.[53]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted further limited raids in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on August 30.[54] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces landed northwest of Pidstepne (17km east of Kherson City) and on an island in the Dnipro River delta.[55] Another milblogger claimed that Russian forces destroyed the Ukrainian boats as they approached the east bank, however.[56]

Russian forces continued efforts to secure the Kerch Strait Bridge against maritime threats. Satellite imagery dated August 29 and 30 shows that Russian forces have sunk barges near the Kerch Strait Bridge presumably to prevent maritime drones from striking boats near the bridge or the bridge itself.[57] One Russian milblogger criticized this attempt and claimed that the few hundred meters between each barge is sufficient for maritime drones to pass through the barrier.[58]

The Russian MoD and other Russian sources claimed that Russian aviation attack prevented up to 50 Ukrainian troops from landing in occupied Crimea overnight on August 29 to 30.[59] The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces denied the Russian MoD’s claim, however.[60]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Russian MoD is reportedly banning Wagner Group soldiers from fighting in Ukraine. Russian opposition media outlets obtained an audio message in which a Wagner representative encourages Wagner servicemen to look for different work because the Russian MoD is not allowing Wagner forces to fight in Ukraine, citing recent events.[61] The Wagner representative noted that Wagner fighters are also struggling to work in the Middle East or Africa due to “tough competition” with the Russian MoD and National Guard (Rosgvardia) who are trying to operate in those regions.[62] ISW has previously assessed that the Russian MoD and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner Group since the June 24 rebellion.[63]

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited defense industrial base (DIB) production facilities in Tula Oblast on August 30 and highlighted the importance of counterbattery capabilities in the Russian war effort - likely in response to recent public complaints about poor counterbattery capabilities.[64] Shoigu visited a radar systems production facility of the Almaz-Antey Corporation in Tula Oblast whose general director claimed that the facility has increased its production and supply of modern counterbattery weapons to support the Russian war effort.[65] Shoigu stated that counterbattery combat and the supply of Russian soldiers with counterbattery capabilities play “the most important” role in the war in Ukraine.[66] Russian military commanders, such as “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky and former 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) Commander Major General Ivan Popov, and Russian milbloggers have recently complained about the lack of effective Russian counterbattery capabilities on the battlefield.[67]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group claimed that its partisans successfully detonated an explosive at the campaign headquarters of the United Russia party in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast on August 29.[68] “Atesh” claimed that the resulting fire killed three Russian personnel guarding the headquarters and destroyed documents supporting the upcoming September 2023 regional elections.[69]

Russian authorities continue sending workers from Russia to occupied Ukraine to fill out the workforce and artificially alter demographics. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian authorities are sending Russian locksmiths, welders, and drivers to occupied Ukraine to repair damaged equipment and build fortifications.[70] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the Kremlin-managed “Leningradskyi Rubezh” fund organizes the dispatch of these personnel to occupied Ukraine.[71]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Belarusian forces reportedly received another Iskander missile system on August 30. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that another Iskander-M missile system arrived in Belarus and deployed to its permanent base.[72] The Belarusian MoD announced on February 1, 2023, that Belarusian forces were independently operating Russian-provided Iskander systems.[73]

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to increase their control over Belarus and other Russian actions in Belarus.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] https://suspilne dot media/561573-ssa-vidilili-novij-paket-dopomogi-ukraini-ukrainski-pidrozdili-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini-553-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1693388119&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps; https://suspilne dot media/561583-bezpilotniki-atakuvali-aeroport-u-pskovi/; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-attack-russian-air...

[2] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1696666301794591007?s=20; https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1696640330160882118?s=20; https://... ; https://t.me/MV_007_Pskov/3321 ; https://suspilne dot media/561583-bezpilotniki-atakuvali-aeroport-u-pskovi/ ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/52219 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/14695 ; https:/...

[3] https://t.me/rusich_army/10615 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/52210 ; http...

[4] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/96212 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/96208 ; ...

[5] https://t.me/mos_sobyanin/6791

[6] https://t.me/rybar/51327

[7] https://t.me/rybar/51327

[8] https://t.me/sashakots/41926

[9] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/12658

[10] https://t.me/notes_veterans/11856 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/...

https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/30223

[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWx-8PTRdSM ; https://twitter.com/Juli...

[12] https://t.me/kpszsu/4798 ; https://t.me/CinCAFU/567 ; https://www.fa...

[13] https://t.me/kpszsu/4798 ; https://t.me/CinCAFU/567 ; https://www.fa...

[14] https://suspilne dot media/561595-rosijski-vijska-atakuvali-kiiv-e-zagibli-ta-postrazdali/

[15] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1696811846303449093?s=20; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1696799698399396243?s=20; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1696799695648014612?s=20; https://t.me/ZA_FROHT/21326; https://twitter.com/VigorousFalcon/status/1696829973351616731?s=20; https://twitter.com/VigorousFalcon/status/1696832854821658893?s=20

[16] https://t.me/rybar/51312; https://t.me/batalyon15/2793; https://t.me/BalitskyEV/1630; https://t.me/wargonzo/14696; https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/37820; https://t.me/mod_russia/29934 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/29941

[17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029at4U2J473WZ5z8L3q...

[18] https://t.me/ShturmovaRota3/853; https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/st... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029at4U2J473WZ5z8L3q... ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/08/30/oleksandr-syrskyj-vzhyvayemo-vsih-zahodiv-dlya-zryvu-planiv-protyvnyka-i-postupovo-prosuvayemsya-vpered/ ; https://www.facebook.com/easternforces/posts/pfbid02NnzNqjm4cgay1de6yK3W... ; https://t.me/militarymediacenter/2998

[19] https://t.me/wargonzo/14696

[20] https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/08/30/we-dont-need-heroes-who-marched-on-moscow-how-the-kremlin-silenced-prigozhins-funeral-a82293

[21] https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/3241; https://t.me/dva_majors/24611

[22] https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/3255; https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/325...

[23] https://t.me/dva_majors/24611

[24] https://t.me/dva_majors/24611

[25] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[26] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3858

[27] https://isw.pub/UkrWar061223 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar061523 ; https:...

[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0szdVvpSebBQvm5znnrb... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026fc6Z86UyNNvU4JmWR...

[29] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/08/30/oleksandr-syrskyj-vzhyvayemo-vsih-zahodiv-dlya-zryvu-planiv-protyvnyka-i-postupovo-prosuvayemsya-vpered/ ; https://www.facebook.com/easternforces/posts/pfbid02NnzNqjm4cgay1de6yK3W... ; https://t.me/militarymediacenter/2998

[30] https://t.me/zvofront/898

[31] https://t.me/rybar/51312

[32] https://t.me/notes_veterans/11854

[33] https://t.me/mod_russia/29934 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/29942 ; http...

[34] https://t.me/mod_russia/29931

[35] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029at4U2J473WZ5z8L3q...

[36] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/08/30/oleksandr-syrskyj-vzhyvayemo-vsih-zahodiv-dlya-zryvu-planiv-protyvnyka-i-postupovo-prosuvayemsya-vpered/ ; https://www.facebook.com/easternforces/posts/pfbid02NnzNqjm4cgay1de6yK3W...

[37] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/52288

[38] https://t.me/rybar/51312

[39] https://t.me/wargonzo/14696; https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/37820

[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0szdVvpSebBQvm5znnrb...

[41] https://t.me/wargonzo/14696

[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0szdVvpSebBQvm5znnrb...

[43] https://t.me/wargonzo/14696

[44] https://t.me/voin_dv/4652; https://t.me/rybar/51332; https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2868

[45] https://t.me/rybar/51332

[46] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0szdVvpSebBQvm5znnrb...

[47] https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2868

[48] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1696811846303449093?s=20; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1696799698399396243?s=20; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1696799695648014612?s=20; https://t.me/ZA_FROHT/21326

[49] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029at4U2J473WZ5z8L3q...

[50] https://t.me/rybar/51312; https://t.me/batalyon15/2793; https://t.me/BalitskyEV/1630; https://t.... https://t.me/mod_russia/29934 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/29941

[51] https://t.me/zvofront/894; https://t.me/zvofront/895

[52] https://t.me/rusich_army/10614; https://t.me/dva_majors/24576; https:/... https://t.me/mod_russia/29934 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/29941

[53] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0szdVvpSebBQvm5znnrb...

[54] https://t.me/dva_majors/24576

[55] https://t.me/rybar/51337

[56] https://t.me/dva_majors/24576

[57] https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1696832729407434994?s=20; https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1696912976186622042?s=20; https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1696261789435183367?s=20

[58] https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/30199

[59] https://t.me/dva_majors/24576; https://t.me/rybar/51340; https://t.me/... https://t.me/mod_russia/29935 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/29913

[60] https://t.me/ukr_sof/718

[61] https://storage.googleapis dot com/istories/news/2023/08/30/chvk-vagner-predlozhila-boitsam-naiti-druguyu-rabotu-iz-za-konkurentsii-s-minoboroni-i-rosgvardiei-v-afrike-i-na-blizhnem-vostoke/index.html ; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/08/30/v-chvk-vagnera-posovetovali-svoim-boytsam-iskat-drugie-varianty-zarabotka ; https://t.me/istories_media/3518

[62] https://storage.googleapis dot com/istories/news/2023/08/30/chvk-vagner-predlozhila-boitsam-naiti-druguyu-rabotu-iz-za-konkurentsii-s-minoboroni-i-rosgvardiei-v-afrike-i-na-blizhnem-vostoke/index.html ; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/08/30/v-chvk-vagnera-posovetovali-svoim-boytsam-iskat-drugie-varianty-zarabotka ; https://t.me/istories_media/3518

[63] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[64] https://t.me/mod_russia/29937

[65] https://t.me/mod_russia/29937

[66] https://t.me/mod_russia/29937

[67] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://isw.pub/UkrWar082023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[68] https://t.me/atesh_ua/1645 ; https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/4487 ; https... gov.ua/partyzany-znyshhyly-shtab-okupantiv-u-novij-kahovtsi/ ; https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/18613303

[69] https://t.me/atesh_ua/1645

[70] https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/okupanty-zvozyat-zarobitchan-na-tot-cherez-vidmovu-mistsevyh-spivpratsyuvaty-z-vorogom/

[71] https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/okupanty-zvozyat-zarobitchan-na-tot-cherez-vidmovu-mistsevyh-spivpratsyuvaty-z-vorogom/

[72] https://t.me/modmilby/31236 ; https://t.me/modmilby/31231

[73] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...