UA-69458566-1

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023

 Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, and Fredrick W. Kagan

June 3, 2023, 4:30 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1 pm ET on June 3. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 4 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a June 3 interview with the Wall Street Journal that Ukraine is ready to launch a counteroffensive.[1] Zelensky stated that Ukraine “would like to have certain things, but … can’t wait for months” to start counteroffensive operations.[2] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 3 that “military plans love silence” and that she will “discuss something else” in the meantime, likely acknowledging that Ukrainian officials have started to more strictly enforce a regime of informational silence about operations in preparation for upcoming counteroffensives.[3] Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko stated on June 3 that Ukraine has formed all nine brigades of the “Offensive Guard” and that these formations are ready to take part in hostilities at Zelensky’s and Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi’s orders.[4]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin escalated his feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely hoping to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership and downplay his ongoing conflict with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. Prigozhin alleged on June 2 that representatives of the MoD placed anti-tank mines and other explosive devices along routes that Wagner forces were using to withdraw from Bakhmut.[5] Prigozhin asserted that these charges were placed in rear areas with no Ukrainian activity and that the MoD likely meant for Wagner forces to detonate the explosives in order to give Wagner a “public flogging.”[6] Prigozhin also further responded to a concerted attack that Chechen commanders launched against him on June 1 and stated on June 3 that he and Kadyrov settled the conflict.[7] Prigozhin claimed that he called Kadyrov on June 1 and the two agreed to let the “whole story” about the conflict dissipate.[8] Prigozhin suggested that a group in the Kremlin may have started the conflict between Kadyrov’s forces and Wagner and insinuated that the Kremlin often plays ”dangerous games” that could destabilize interethnic relations within Russia.[9] Kadyrov has yet to publicly address the conflict between Chechen forces and Wagner.

Prigozhin has not yet responded to Kadyrov or the Chechen commanders who started the attack in an antagonistic manner typical of his usual approach to responding to critiques.[10] The claimed private phone call between Prigozhin and Kadyrov would suggest that Prigozhin is concerned that this typical public response might further antagonize Kadyrov and Chechen commanders and that Prigozhin is concerned about having another prominent silovik figure like Kadyrov aligned against him. Prigozhin likely accused the MoD of trying to kill Wagner forces and the Kremlin of creating the conflict with the Chechen commanders to quickly reorient Russian discussion back to his usual targets of ire, the Russian military and political leadership. Prigozhin is also likely aiming to rally pro-war ultranationalist groups, specifically Kadyrov and Chechen commanders, to join him in criticizing those targets as he has done before.

Prigozhin’s flamboyant allegations are also likely an attempt to retain his heightened initiative within the Russian information space following the capture of Bakhmut. Prigozhin has consistently shaped discussions within the Russian information space leading up to the capture of Bakhmut and following the end of Wagner’s effort in the city by engaging in a near-daily series of public outbursts and demonstrative actions.[11] Prigozhin has used his heightened profile following the capture of Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites and bolster his attempt to solidify himself as the central figure of the Russian ultranationalist community.[12] The concerted attack from Chechen commanders represents the first instance since the capture of Bakhmut that Prigozhin has not been the one to initiate larger conversations about himself and the Wagner Group within the Russian information space. Prigozhin’s desire to retain Kadyrov as a potential ally has likely constrained Prigozhin’s regular approach to shaping the Russian information space. Prigozhin has routinely used Wagner’s claimed responsibility for tactical gains to legitimize his pursuit of influence and his criticism of others, and he is likely also concerned that he may soon lose his current ability to dominate discussions about himself and Wagner as Wagner Group forces withdraw to rear areas to replenish and reconstitute.[13] Prigozhin’s dramatic accusation against the MoD aims to remove any constraints resulting from his conflict with Kadyrov, shift the conversation back to criticizing his opponents in the MoD, and allow Prigozhin to continue determining how he and Wagner are portrayed.

Prigozhin seized on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner Group forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command.[14] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner will not wait for an invitation or permission from the MoD to defend Belgorod Oblast if the MoD does not curb security threats to the region. Prigozhin justified his threat of insubordination by claiming that Wagner aims to protect the Russian people, implying that Wagner will assume the role of border defender that the MoD should already occupy. Prigozhin's threats capitalize on complaints from other prominent information space voices that Russian authorities have not done enough to protect border areas from the impacts of the war and reflect Prigozhin‘s current loss of informational initiative.[15]

Prigozhin’s threats also indicate that he may aim for Wagner forces to assume primary or sole responsibility for an axis in the Ukrainian theater now that Wagner forces have withdrawn from that role in the Bakhmut area. Prigozhin may see the Belgorod-Ukraine border as an easy enough front line to defend as the raids into Russia have thus far occurred on an extremely limited scale. Deploying Wagner forces to the Belgorod border would allow Prigozhin to maintain his position as a commander of frontline forces without the grueling demands of conducting human wave-style frontal assaults against a heavily fortified Ukrainian city. Prigozhin’s apparent threat to undertake military operations, even defensive ones, on Russian territory without the permission of the Russian MoD is astonishing if it is anything other than flamboyant rhetoric. It implies that Prigozhin regards himself as able to use large military forces loyal to him at his own discretion and beyond the control of the actual Russian military. Russian President Vladimir Putin would have to have tremendous confidence in Prigozhin’s personal loyalty to himself to be at all comfortable with such a situation.

A Russian Duma Deputy stated during a public forum on June 1 that Russia has failed to accomplish any of its articulated goals for the “special military operation” in Ukraine. First Duma Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Affairs Konstantin Zatulin emphasized that of Russia’s officially declared goals at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine — “denazification, demilitarization, the neutrality of Ukraine, and the protection of the inhabitants of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics”—none have actually been met.[16] Zatulin further noted that as the war has worn on, these goals have ceased to hold actual meaning and suggested that Russian forces should have been more aggressive in efforts to push Ukrainian forces back from the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Zatulin’s critical observations are noteworthy considering that he is a contributor to the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club, which famously upholds views complementary to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the official Kremlin propaganda line.[17] Zatulin’s apparent views of the war represent an absolute minority within the Russian domestic political environment, as self-censorship and general information space repressions are commonplace. However, such statements coming from a relatively mainstream and well-platformed official suggest that a small subset of the predominant pro-war Russian political faction may feel somewhat empowered to voice discontent and advocate for escalated goals as the war continues.

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin escalated his feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely hoping to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership and downplay his ongoing conflict with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. Prigozhin’s flamboyant allegations are also likely an attempt to retain his heightened initiative within the Russian information space following the capture of Bakhmut.
  • Prigozhin seized on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner Group forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command.
  • A Russian Duma Deputy stated during a public forum on June 1 that Russia has failed to accomplish any of its articulated goals for the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and northwest and south of Kreminna.
  • Regular Russian forces have likely largely relieved Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.
  • Russian forces focused offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line near Marinka.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued efforts to establish defensive positions in Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian military leadership is attempting to create and staff new military formations.
  • Likely Ukrainian partisans assassinated a Russian collaborator in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line on June 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoselivske, Luhansk Oblast (16km northwest of Svatove).[18] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian reinforcements arrived during Russian ground attacks near Novoselivske and forced Russian forces to retreat towards Kuzemivka (15km northwest of Svatove).[19] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked towards Kuzemivka but that Russian forces repelled the assaults.[20] Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Dvorichna (16km northeast of Kupyansk), Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk), and Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk).[21]

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northwest and south of Kreminna on June 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).[22] A Russian milblogger claimed that fighting in the Makiivka area is ongoing near the R-66 (Kreminna to Svatove) highway and that Russian forces advanced in forests west of Kreminna.[23]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis of the Battle for Bakhmut.

Regular Russian forces have likely largely relieved Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 2 that 99 percent of Wagner units have left Bakhmut.[24] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that degraded Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) elements, including those of the 76th VDV Division, 106th VDV Division, and two unspecified brigades have deployed to the Bakhmut area and are increasing their role in the area.[25] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces lost 100,000 personnel killed and wounded in the 10-month Bakhmut effort.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions 6km west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.[27] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are conducting positional engagements on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.[28] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening defensive lines in this area because Russian forces aim to restart their offensive effort on June 5, the claimed completion date of the Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut.[29]

Russian forces on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line continued to focus their offensive efforts on Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) on June 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian ground attacks in Marinka and near Oleksandrivka (immediately south of Donetsk City).[30] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces did not conduct ground attacks near Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces gained some territory in northwestern Marinka and that Russian forces will likely attempt to encircle the settlement in June.[31] One milblogger claimed that Russian forces made limited gains north of Avdiivka and complained that Ukrainian forces successfully constrained Russian offensive efforts west of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka.[32]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on June 3. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to seize the initiative in the Vuhledar direction but there are currently no reports that Ukrainian troops have broken through Russian lines.[33] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are probing Russian defenses for future attacks near Pavlivka (2km southwest of Vuhledar) and Mykilske (3km southeast of Vuhledar).[34] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Russian-controlled Pavlivka, which is consistent with other Russian claims of activity in the area.[35]  None of these claims are particularly anomalous or unusual, and ISW has no independent confirmation of any of them.

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces continued to target rear Russian positions throughout southern Ukraine on June 3. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian aviation units struck Russian concentration areas in Skadovsk Raion, Kherson Oblast.[36] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes against Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, and that Russian air defenses intercepted six unspecified Ukrainian missiles.[37] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov also claimed that Russian air defenses were active near Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and that residents heard several explosions in the area.[38]

Russian forces continue to expand fortifications in rear areas of Kherson Oblast as of June 3. Geolocated footage published on June 3 shows newly erected dragon’s teeth defensive structures northeast of Stavky (87km southeast of Kherson City).[39] The fortifications are located on the north side of the E97 highway, a key ground line of communication (GLOC) connecting occupied Crimea to Skadovsk (60km south of Kherson City) and Oleshky (8km southwest of Kherson City). These new structures are consistent with an ongoing pattern in limited Russian fortifications in southern Ukraine that prioritize the defense of main GLOCs.

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Russian military leadership is attempting to create and staff new military formations. Russian state media outlet TASS began reporting in mid-May that authorities of the Kabardino-Balkaria Republic are offering to pay 20,000 rubles (approximately $247) to residents who join the newly formed 40th Army Corps.[40] Rostov Oblast news agency DON24 similarly reported on May 12 that Rostov Oblast governor Vasily Golubev instructed military enlistment offices to pay bonuses to volunteers who sign up for contract service with the Rostov St. George Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps of the Southern Military District.[41] Russian media noted that these are the first instances of the 40th Army Corps in the public press, and ISW has not observed mentions of this formation pre-dating reports from mid-May.[42] ISW previously reported on the ad hoc formation of the volunteer-based 3rd Army Corps, which formed over the summer of 2022 and reportedly had an end-strength of around 20,000 personnel.[43] It is unclear how Russian military authorities intend to staff an army corps-level formation considering pervasive and continued issues with force generation.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Likely Ukrainian partisans assassinated at least one Russian collaborator in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast on June 2. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian actors blew up the car of local businessman Sergey Didovodyuk in Myhailivka with a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED), killing Didovodyuk and injuring two others.[44] Rogov claimed that Didovodyuk was active in the occupation political sphere and participated in preliminary voting for the ruling “United Russia” party. Ukrainian sources reported that Didovodyuk is the deputy chairperson of the “We are Together with Russia” collaborator movement, of which Rogov is the chair.[45] Ukrainian sources also reported that the attack killed Didovodyuk’s daughter, Mykhailivka occupation Civil-Military Administration Deputy Head Yana Didovodyuk, and injured the Mykhailivka occupation Civil-Military Administration Head Vyacheslav Bidnyak.

Russian authorities established a system to simplify the adoption of Ukrainian children to Russian families and prevent returning Ukrainian children to Ukraine. Russian independent investigative outlet Vazhne Istorii reported that the Russian government established a state information bank on Ukrainian orphans and other children without parental care and advertises their profiles to Russian families for guardianship and adoption.[46] Vazhne Istorii reported that the Russian system aims to keep Ukrainian children from returning to Russia and that there are 4,400 Ukrainian orphans left without any care or adult supervision in Russia as of March 2023. Vazhne Istorii found that the number of Ukrainian children in Russia significantly increased in 2022, including 573 Ukrainian children in the Rostov Oblast database, 460 in the Moscow Oblast database, and 388 in the Nizhny Novgorod database.

Russia established a permanent occupation government in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik signed a decree on June 2 that established the Government of the LNR, consisting of 18 ministers and headed by a prime minister.[47] Pasechnik announced that Sergey Kozlov serves as the Chairperson of the LNR Government and that the new government strengthens integration with Russian state bodies.

Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine is extraordinarily unlikely).

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine.

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] https://www.wsj.com/video/series/in-depth-features/wsj-exclusive-an-interview-with-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky/DF7422A2-778B-403B-83ED-3F9490192C1A?mod=e2tw

[2] https://www.wsj.com/video/series/in-depth-features/wsj-exclusive-an-interview-with-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky/DF7422A2-778B-403B-83ED-3F9490192C1A?mod=e2tw

[3] https://t.me/annamaliar/808  

[4] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/06/03/gvardiya-nastupu-sformovana-ta-gotova-do-nakaziv-igor-klymenko/

[5] https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3564

[6] https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3564

[7] https://isw.pub/UkrWar060123 ; https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3571;

[8] https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3571;

[9] https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3571

[10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar060123

[11] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2023; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2023; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-29-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20April%2013%2C%202023%20PDF.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20April%2024%2C%202023%20PDF.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20April%2025%2C%202023%20PDF.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20April%2022%2C%202023.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20May%2017%2C%202023%20PDF.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20April%2016.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/May%2022%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.pdf

[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar052423

[13] https://isw.pub/UkrWar052123 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar051123 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar052423 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar01192023

[14] https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3571; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/58925;  https://meduza dot io/news/2023/06/03/osnovatel-chvk-vagnera-evgeniy-prigozhin-zayavil-chto-ureguliroval-konflikt-s

[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2023

[16] https://zatulin dot ru/vystuplenie-konstantina-zatulina-na-forsajt-forume-kakaya-ukraina-nam-nuzhna/

[17] https://valdaiclub dot com/about/experts/522/

[18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02R2MYRrZRBdC4rSxUU35ANfLUHn9Wmdvxf2aE5U1AZnLdJi5vCHqQ94zbgQoL7FDml  ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Xo5FZQwsmDe3DXRXUpcraqc5Vxxj2YVTL5xCZYSiDqCcsVZRtRq2yaPjVy5NFirdl

[19] https://t.me/rybar/47947

[20] https://t.me/rybar/47947

[21] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132 ;  https://t.me/wargonzo/12931

[22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02R2MYRrZRBdC4rSxUU35ANfLUHn9Wmdvxf2aE5U1AZnLdJi5vCHqQ94zbgQoL7FDml ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Xo5FZQwsmDe3DXRXUpcraqc5Vxxj2YVTL5xCZYSiDqCcsVZRtRq2yaPjVy5NFirdl

[23] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132

[24] https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3564

[25] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1664861262629556228?s=20

[26] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/06/03/bahmut-dlya-voroga-zalyshayetsya-bilsh-priorytetnym-nizh-byelgorodshhyna-sergij-cherevatyj/

[27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Xo5FZQwsmDe3DXRXUpcraqc5Vxxj2YVTL5xCZYSiDqCcsVZRtRq2yaPjVy5NFirdl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02R2MYRrZRBdC4rSxUU35ANfLUHn9Wmdvxf2aE5U1AZnLdJi5vCHqQ94zbgQoL7FDml

[28] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132

[29] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132

[30] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02R2MYRrZRBdC4rSxUU35ANfLUHn9Wmdvxf2aE5U1AZnLdJi5vCHqQ94zbgQoL7FDml; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Xo5FZQwsmDe3DXRXUpcraqc5Vxxj2YVTL5xCZYSiDqCcsVZRtRq2yaPjVy5NFirdl

[31] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132; https://t.me/wargonzo/12931

[32] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132;

[33] https://t.me/wargonzo/12931

[34] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/87761; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48132

[35] https://t.me/mod_russia/27063

[36] https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0fh6tWdCpmuUmFqDKfBng2SDfbLG3a2QWGye7kYv7LCaWYtRUatTC2zxLfYTeXKsZl

[37] https://t.me/vrogov/10009 ; https://t.me/astrapress/28641

[38] https://t.me/vrogov/10007 ; https://t.me/vrogov/10008

[39] https://twitter.com/CrimeaUA1/status/1664981721719222274?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1664982615345045505?s=20  

[40] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/17772407

[41] https://don24 dot ru/rubric/obschestvo/dobrovolcam-rostovskogo-motostrelkovogo-batalona-vyplatyat-premii-po-rasporyazheniyu-gubernatora.html

[42] https://don24 dot ru/rubric/obschestvo/dobrovolcam-rostovskogo-motostrelkovogo-batalona-vyplatyat-premii-po-rasporyazheniyu-gubernatora.html

[43] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/15/the-russians-spent-months-forming-a-new-army-corps-it-lasted-days-in-ukraine/?sh=4a997ae856e6; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19; https://isw.pub/RusCampaignSept18; https://isw.pub/RusCampaignAugust27

[44] https://t.me/vrogov/9982 ; https://t.me/vrogov/9983; https://t.me/rybar/47935; https://t.me/rybar/47928 

[45] https://censor dot net/ua/news/3422464/sbu_likviduvala_na_okupovaniyi_terytoriyi_zradnykiv_batka_yi_donku_didovodyukiv_djerelo_foto ; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664983003737587718?s=20 ; https://tsn dot ua/ukrayina/na-zaporizhzhi-vibuhnuv-avtomobil-kolaboranta-yakiy-u-svoyemu-kafe-goduvav-okupantiv-foto-2342380.html ; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/2144 ; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/2143

[46] https://storage.googleapis.com/istories/stories/2023/05/31/dopolnitelnie-grazhdane-rossii/index.html?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=mainpage

[47] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/1236

Friday, June 2, 2023

Iran Update, June 2, 2023

Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, and Kitaneh Fitzpatrick

 

The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaways

1). Iran is training its militias in Syria to use a range of improvised and advanced weapons to attack US personnel in Syria. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may conduct attacks against US forces in Syria.

2). Iran likely calculates that it has achieved strategic depth and using militias in Iraq and Syria to attack US forces will keep conflict confined to Syria.

3). Iranian media circulated reports of an IRGC-conducted a drone strike targeting Kurdish Iranian separatist groups in the Iraqi Kurdistan region on June 2.

4). The Iranian regime is pursuing increased gas swaps with Turkmenistan, likely to preempt electricity shortages in the summer that could fuel internal unrest.

 

Iranian Activities in the Levant

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant and especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Iran is training its militias in Syria to use a range of improvised and advanced weapons to attack US personnel in Syria. Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) have trained militias since January to construct and begin using explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) against US forces in Syria.[1] Iranian-backed militias killed at least 603 US personnel in Iraq with EFPs from 2003 to 2011.[2] Iranian Quds Force leaders in Deir ez Zor ordered surface-to-surface missile and man portable air defense system training for a local proxy group in late May.[3] CTP cannot independently verify the report about surface-to-surface missiles. Iranian-backed militias also have received training on drones, which enabled them to conduct an ISR flight over the US Conoco Base in Deir ez Zor Province in February and target other US bases in Syria with attack UAVs.[4] Iranian-backed militias have also accelerated the training and use of drone capabilities in Deir ez Zor Province since April.[5] These capabilities enable Iranian-backed militias to carry out attacks on US bases, ground forces, and helicopters in Syria. [6] That the SDF seized three EFPs near a US base in northeast Syria indicates the imminent threat that Iranian proxies armed with EFPs pose to US forces.[7]

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may conduct attacks against US forces in Syria. The Iranian-backed militia Kataib al Sabreen announced its formation and intention to target US forces in Iraq on June 1.[8] The Asaib Ahl al Haq and Harakat al Nujaba-affiliated group Ashab al Kahf announced it has ordered its rocket unit operating in Mosul to redeploy to Baghdad to attack US forces at Camp Victory and the US Embassy.[9] The Iraq-based Iranian proxy group Liwa al Ghaliboun killed a US contractor in an attack on US forces in Syria on March 23.[10]

Iran likely calculates that it has achieved strategic depth and using militias in Iraq and Syria to attack US forces will keep conflict confined to Syria. Iranian-backed militias have previously attacked US forces from positions in Iraq and Syria.[11] US forces retaliated with attacks against Iranian-backed militia positions in Syria. Using proxies to attack US forces obfuscates Iran’s role and gives it plausible deniability. Iranian calculations to target US forces in Syria aligns with Iran’s goals in preventing an attack on Iran and Iran’s offensive regional strategy.[12]

Iranian Activities in Iraq

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout Iraq. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Iranian media circulated reports of an IRGC-conducted a drone strike targeting Kurdish Iranian separatist groups in the Iraqi Kurdistan region on June 2. Iranian English-language news outlet West Asia News Agency cited unidentified Iranian outlets claiming that the IRGC bombed headquarters of Kurdish Iranian separatist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan.[13] Iranian-backed proxy Telegram channels circulated the report and added that the IRGC had targeted the separatist groups in a drone strike.[14] Iranian media has not yet reported on this incident, which deviates from the regime’s regular pattern of reporting on Iranian strikes targeting Kurdish separatist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iranian Domestic Affairs

This section covers factors and trends affecting regime decision-making and stability. CTP will cover domestic politics, significant protest activity, and related issues here.

The Iranian regime is pursuing gas swaps with Turkmenistan, likely to preempt electricity shortages in the summer that could fuel internal unrest. President Ebrahim Raisi discussed increasing the volume of gas swaps with Turkmenistan during a meeting with Turkmenistan People’s Council Chairman Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov in Tehran on May 30.[15] Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji separately announced on May 30 that Iran and Turkmenistan will soon sign an agreement for Iran to import 10 million cubic meters of natural gas from Turkmenistan each day.[16] Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan previously signed a gas swap agreement in November 2021 wherein Iran transports Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan via the Iranian city of Astara.[17] This deal allows Iran to use some of the gas it imports from Turkmenistan to supply electricity and heating to its northern provinces. Iranians previously protested power outages in Tehran, Fars, and Mazandaran Provinces in July 2021.[18]

Iranian officials also discussed water problems with Berdymukhamedov on May 30. President Ebrahim Raisi praised Iranian-Turkmen water cooperation and discussed the Friendship Dam—a dam situated along the Iran-Turkmenistan border in Khorasan Razavi Province—during a meeting with high-ranking Turkmen and Iranian officials on May 30.[19] Iranian officials have expressed increased concern over Khorasan Razavi Province’s water supply in recent weeks.[20] Iran’s water discussions with Turkmenistan also coincide with rising tensions over water rights between Iran and Afghanistan. The Raisi administration has placed greater pressure on the Afghan Taliban to release water from the Helmand River to Sistan and Baluchistan Province in recent weeks because it is concerned that water shortages could precipitate unrest in this province.[21]

Iran could decrease the volume of natural gas it keeps from gas swaps with Turkmenistan to gain water concessions. The Turkmen government has no incentive to provide Iran with more water, however, given that many Turkmen farmers rely on the Friendship Dam for water. A regime decision to risk natural gas imports for water concessions would indicate that Iran currently prioritizes water issues over energy issues.

Iranian security personnel violently suppressed an anti-regime demonstration in Abdanan, Ilam Province on June 1, demonstrating that protesters remain undeterred from further protest despite the brutal regime crackdown during the Mahsa Amini movement.[22] Social media users reported that security forces shot at and injured at least 20 individuals protesting the suspicious death of 21-year-old Bamshad Soleimankhani, who died shortly after he was released from prison. CTP previously recorded a significant uptick in anti-regime protests in May 2023 compared to April and March of this year.[23]



[13] https://t dot co/trR9s7uKUk

[15] https://president dot ir/fa/144444

[16] https://www.irna dot ir/news/85126979

[19] https://president dot ir/fa/144440

[20] https://www.mehrnews dot com/news/5788450

https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/amp/news/8425787

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023

 Layne Philipson, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, and Fredrick W. Kagan

June 2, 2023, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1pm ET on June 2. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project confidence and competence in the MoD’s ability to respond to perceived threats. The Russian MoD issued a second update about the June 1 Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast border raid, largely fixating on the timeliness and scope of the Russian response to the raid.[1] The MoD claimed that additional Russian Western Military District (WMD) elements reinforced the border area within an hour of the start of the raid and conducted heavy air, artillery, and flamethrower strikes against the raiding units and their reserves. The MoD claimed that over 135 people and 35 vehicles in total conducted the raids and that various Russian defensive efforts - including small arms fire and mines - repelled the raids. The MoD later celebrated the commander of an unspecified motorized rifle battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Nikitin, for leading the defensive effort, likely to preempt attempts to attribute the “victory” achieved by Belgorod border defense on Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin as the information space did during the May 23 raid.[2] The Russian MoD’s fixation on portraying Russian forces and the Russian military command as capable defenders of Russia likely reflects internal and broader information space anxiety over the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive as well as any reverberating informational impacts from any failures to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks.

Select Russian milbloggers continue to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize Russian leadership while others downplayed the recent raids. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger stated that the Russian MoD is not treating Belgorod Oblast like Russian territory and claimed that it is only adding to the list of settlements affected by Ukrainian shelling.[3] A milblogger called on Russian forces to destroy increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian forces at their deployment points along the border and not to lie in their reports about the situation in the area.[4] Some milbloggers stated that Russian forces have responded well to the raids, which they claim are merely “terrorist attacks” aimed at creating a psychological impact as opposed to securing concrete territorial goals.[5] A prominent Russian milblogger absurdly claimed that Ukrainian forces have concluded that it is too risky to start the counteroffensive now after observing Russia’s responses to recent probing efforts.[6] The raids, any Ukrainian probing efforts, and Russian responses in the past few weeks have all been on an extremely small scale compared with the announced forces Ukraine is reportedly preparing for the counter-offensive.  The Russian hyperfocus on minor tactical engagements highlights Russian nervousness and insecurity about the forthcoming counteroffensive.

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine using cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on the night of June 1-2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 15 Kh-101/555 missiles at Kyiv City from Tu-95 aircraft over the Caspian Sea and that Ukrainian air defense destroyed all 15 missiles.[7]  The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all 21 Shahed 131/136 drones that Russian forces launched at Kyiv from southern Ukraine.[8] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that Russian forces are attempting to attack in atypical patterns and at unexpected times to deceive Ukrainian air defense, but that newly supplied air defense systems nonetheless allow Ukrainian forces to shoot down all Russian missiles flying along a ballistic trajectory.[9] Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk stated on June 2 that Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian drone over Mykolaiv Oblast during the June 1 to 2 overnight strikes.[10]

Head of the Russian Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff Colonel General Yevgeny Burdinsky announced that the Russian military will form two new military districts and other new formations by the end of 2023. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) “Military Commissariats of Russia” journal published an article by Burdinsky in its June 2023 edition in which he stated that it is necessary for Russian forces to create the Moscow and Leningrad military districts and organize and staff new combined arms and air armies, army corps, the Azov naval regional formation, five divisions, and 26 brigades in 2023.[11] Burdinsky emphasized that the main organizational task for the MoD remains contract service recruitment and the implementation of conscription, however.[12] Burdinsky did not expound upon how the Russian military plans to generate the necessary personnel and equipment required to form these new formations and it is unclear if Burdinsky’s statements were meant to represent a formal MoD deadline for the creation of the new formations.

Budinsky's statements likely aim to reintroduce and reamplify Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s standing proposals to significantly expand the Russian military. Shoigu delivered a series of public proposals at the MoD’s Collegium on December 21, 2022 aimed at significantly increasing the size of the Russian military which included the reestablishment of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts as well as the formation of a new army corps.[13] Shoigu proposed that the Russian Armed Forces increase its strength to 1.5 million servicemen, including 695,000 contract servicemen, but did not specify a timeline for any of his proposals.[14] Shoigu also proposed an increase in the age of conscription, a measure that Russian officials have decided to implement in a phased manner over the course of three years instead of by the end of the year.[15] The creation of two military districts and these formations is a significant undertaking, and the Russian MoD’s current force generation efforts do not signal that the MoD intends to generate the necessary number of personnel to fulfill these tasks by the end of 2023.

Both a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger and Igor Girkin, an ardent nationalist milblogger who is increasingly critical of the Kremlin, questioned where the MoD plans to acquire the personnel and equipment from to create these new formations. [16] Girkin stated that 26 brigades would require 80,000 personnel, a figure roughly correct if brigades were formed at full staff with 3,000 personnel per brigade.[17] Girkin added that five divisions would require another 40,000 personnel and argued that the MoD would have to conduct another mobilization wave to generate the roughly 120,000 required personnel.[18] ISW has previously assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely hesitant to launch another mobilization wave and that the MoD’s current hybrid force generation effort of contract service recruitment and crypto mobilization is aimed at avoiding such a mobilization wave.[19] The Russian MoD is highly unlikely to institute any of Shoigu's long-term force restructuring and expansion proposals by the end of 2023 with the possible exception of re-establishing the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.

Russian sources appear to be reorienting the debate about the attribution of responsibility for small-scale tactical gains in the Bakhmut area to an ongoing offensive operation to capture Marinka, a small, almost leveled settlement where Russian forces have struggled to advance since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A prominent Russian milblogger stated that there are disputes within the Russian information space over who took more control of Marinka even though Russian forces have not yet fully captured the settlement.[20] A Wagner-affiliated milblogger claimed the elements of the 150th and 20th  Motorized Rifle Divisions (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are primarily responsible for the gains around Marinka.[21] The milblogger claimed that the DNR‘s 100th Brigade, Sparta Battalion, and the ”Kaskad” and ”Rusich” Operational Tactical Combat Formations deserve responsibility for gains around Marinka as well.[22]

These discussions about responsibility coincide with the reported arrival of Chechen forces to assume responsibility of the Donetsk front and complete the capture of Marinka and other settlements in the area.[23] These discussions are likely aimed at undermining Kadyrov’s ability to use any subsequent tactical gains to elevate his standing and reintroduce his paramilitary forces as a main irregular offensive force following the culmination of Wagner forces and their withdrawal from the frontlines.[24] Many irregular formations, primarily DNR forces, have served on the Donetsk front and may be resentful of Kadyrov’s attempt to assume responsibility for any success following months of attritional offensives.[25] This discussion around Marinka also coincides with a concerted attack from Chechen commanders against Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has generated debates between Chechen and Wagner commanders about which forces have been more successful fighting in Ukraine.[26] Prigozhin routinely emphasized Wagner’s responsibility for tactical gains around Bakhmut throughout the offensive to capture the city to advocate for more supplies for Wagner and increased influence.[27] Other irregular forces may be trying to replicate this informational campaign in Marinka and elsewhere in Ukraine and are likely competing amongst each other for envisioned favor from the Kremlin. The capture of Bakhmut, despite offering no operational advantages, did allow the Kremlin to present a Russian victory, if only temporarily, to the Russian public. The capture of Marinka, a settlement with a pre-war population of 10,000 people and with no tactical or operational significance, would likely present marginal informational benefit to the Kremlin at most. Russian forces have advanced less than 2km from 2014-controlled territory around Marinka since the start of the full-scale invasion, suggesting that this entire conversation is premature.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on June 2 that calls for a ceasefire are unacceptable because they will freeze the current lines in place and enable Putin to consolidate control of occupied areas and prepare for future attacks on Ukraine.[28] Blinken noted that the war is a strategic failure for Russia and Russia is worse off militarily, economically, and geopolitically than before the start of its full-scale invasion – all contrary to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategic aims. Blinken noted that the war undermined many of Putin’s broader goals, including to divide NATO, foster a partnership with China, and strengthen the Russian military. Blinken stated that Russian forces in Ukraine suffered 100,000 killed and wounded “in a meat grinder of its own making” just within the past six months. Blinken stated that Putin believes he can outlast Ukraine and its supporters but reiterated that NATO remains committed to supporting Ukraine, as “Ukraine will never be Russia.”

Key Takeaways

  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project confidence and competence in the MoD’s ability to respond to perceived threats.
  • Select Russian milbloggers continue to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize Russian leadership while others downplayed the recent raids.
  • Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine using cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on the night of June 1-2.
  • Head of the Russian Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff Colonel General Yevgeny Burdinsky announced that the Russian military will form two new military districts and other new formations by the end of 2023. Budinsky's statements likely aim to reintroduce and reamplify Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s standing proposals to significantly expand the Russian military.
  • Russian sources appear to be reorienting the debate about the attribution of responsibility for small-scale tactical gains in the Bakhmut area to an ongoing offensive operation to capture Marinka, a small, almost leveled settlement where Russian sources have struggled to advance since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These discussions about responsibility coincide with the reported arrival of Chechen forces to assume responsibility of the Donetsk front and complete the capture of Marinka and other settlements in the area.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on June 2 that calls for a ceasefire are unacceptable because they will freeze the current lines in place and enable Putin to consolidate control of occupied areas and prepare for future attacks on Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Kreminna directions.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks in Marinka.
  • A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces made territorial gains during limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukraine struck the port area in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, with Storm Shadow missiles.
  • Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian cadets from higher military academies are deploying to areas near the Ukrainian border within Russia.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly transport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes.

 

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction on June 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novoselivkse (30km southeast of Kupyansk), west of Masyutivka (12km northeast of Kupyansk), and near Kuzemivka (30km southeast of Kupyansk).[29] Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty noted that Russian forces intensified combat operations along the entire Kharkiv-Luhansk frontline, particularly in the Kupyansk direction.[30] Russian milbloggers claimed that fierce fighting occurred near Masyutivka and Dvorichna (17km northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces crossed the Oskil River near Dvorichna.[31] A Russian milblogger posted footage reportedly showing elements of the 47th Tank Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) striking Ukrainian positions near Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk).[32] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces fired TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems at Ukrainian positions in the 1st Guard Tank Army’s area of operation near Kupyansk.[33]

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Kreminna on June 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Makiivka (22km northwest of Kremmina), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (24km south of Kreminna).[34] The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian Central Group of Forces repelled a Ukrainian counterattack in the Serebrianske forest area (about 10km southwest of Kreminna), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops advanced in this area.[35]

 

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.

There were no reported combat engagements in the Bakhmut direction on June 2. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that no combat engagements occurred in the Bakhmut direction in the past day.[36] Cherevaty reported that the Russian forces relieving Wagner forces in Bakhmut do not want to engage in the same attritional fighting as Wagner forces previously did. The Ukrainian General Staff did not report any ground attacks in or around Bakhmut.[37] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian forces only advanced 29km during the entire battle for Bakhmut, which works out, the UK MoD noted, to 48 centimeters of ground territory for each of the 60,000 personnel killed or wounded near Bakhmut since May 2022.[38]

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks near Avdiivka and prioritized the Marinka direction (directly southwest of Donetsk City) on June 2. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made incremental advances in northwestern Marinka as of June 1.[39] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled eight Russian ground attacks near Marinka.[40] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on June 1 that Akhmat special forces arrived in Marinka on May 30 and that Russian forces have captured 70 percent of the town.[41] The Russian MoD claimed on June 2 that Akhmat forces are conducting assault operations in Marinka.[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that a meeting engagement (encounter battle) occurred near Opytne (3km southwest of Avdiivka).[43] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled a reconnaissance-in-force attempt in the Avdiivka direction.[44]

A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces made territorial gains during limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast on June 2. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made territorial gains after attacking near Volodymyrivka (11km southeast of Vuhledar on the T0509 Pavlivka-Volnovakha-Mariupol highway).[45] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Pavlivka (3km southwest of Vuhledar) and Vodyane (6km northeast of Vuhledar).[46] Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.[47]  

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian sources claimed that Ukraine struck the port area in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, with Storm Shadow missiles on June 2. Geolocated footage posted on June 2 shows smoke plumes and explosions following a strike near the Berdyansk port area.[48] Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukraine may have used British-provided Storm Shadows for the strike.[49] Ukrainian officials have not confirmed a strike on Berdyansk as of the time of this publication.

Russian forces continued routine artillery and air strikes throughout southern Ukraine on June 2.[50] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces shelled frontline territories on the southern axis 77 times with 365 shells and launched 5 KAB aerial bombs at Kozatske and Beryslav, Kherson Oblast.[51]

Ukrainian sources warned that Russian forces may be preparing a provocation at the Armyansk Chemical Plant in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on June 2 that Russian forces are bringing unspecified chemicals to the territory of the Crimean “Titan” Plant, risking setting off an explosion that will release various toxic substances into the air.[52]


Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian cadets from higher military academies are deploying to areas near the Ukrainian border within Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 2 that the Russian military leadership decided to strengthen positions near the Ukrainian border in unspecified western Russian regions with 200 third-year cadets.[53] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the cadets deployed to the border area under the pretext of training and received small arms and grenade launchers.[54] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on May 24 that Russian cadets are undergoing training at the deployment points of elements of the 4th Tank Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) and the 76th Air Assault Division in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts.[55] Russian cadets from higher military academies recently graduated several months ahead of schedule, and ISW assessed that Russian forces are likely expediting education paths for cadets to generate new lower-level commanders and fill gaps within the Russian command cadre.[56] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of recent graduates from Russian higher military academies serving in Ukraine nor current cadets operating near the Ukrainian border.

Russian milbloggers claimed on June 2 that Russian aerospace forces received an unspecified number of newly produced Su-34 attack aircraft from the Russian United Aircraft Corporation.[57] One milblogger claimed that the Novosibirsk Aircraft Production Association Plant, one of the largest aerospace manufacturers in Russia and a subsidiary of the Sukhoi Company, produced the batch of Su-34 aircraft.[58]

Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 2 that Wagner has recruited 300 personnel from Kirov Oblast since opening a recruitment center there in March 2023.[59] Prigozhin also stated that Wagner recruited 800 to 900 convict recruits from Kirov Oblast during its prison recruitment campaign from fall 2022 to February 2023.[60]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly transport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes. Chair of the Kherson Oblast occupation government Andrey Alekseyenko claimed on June 2 that Russian doctors determined that 8,000 children require medical treatment in Russia after conducting full medical evacuations on children in occupied Kherson Oblast.[61] Alekseyenko claimed that 500 children are already undergoing operations in high-tech Russian hospitals free of charge.[62]

Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify measures to passportize residents of occupied territories. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 2 that Kherson Oblast occupation authorities announced September 1, 2023, as the deadline for residents to obtain Russian passports and submit mandatory written refusals of their Ukrainian passports.[63] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Kherson Oblast occupation authorities continue to pressure residents to accept Russian documents by threatening to terminate their electricity supply, deport them to Russia, evict them from their homes, and confiscate their personal property.[64]

Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine is extraordinarily unlikely).

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine.

The Belarusian MoD reported that Belarusian forces are continuing the phased formation of electronic warfare (EW) units and that Special Forces Commander Major General Vadi Denisenko delivered special EW equipment to newly formed Belarusian units.[65]

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Belarusian territorial troops are completing the final stage of command and staff training in Minsk.[66]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[9] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/06/02/epiczentrom-nichnoyi-ataky-znovu-stala-stolyczya-yurij-ignat/

[10] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/06/02/vorogu-v-jogo-povitryanyh-atakah-ne-dopomagayut-aniyaki-hytroshhi-nataliya-gumenyuk/

[11] https://iz dot ru/1522353/2023-06-02/v-minoborony-rf-rasskazali-o-formirovanii-dvukh-armii-i-voennykh-okrugov ; https://voenkom.ric.mil dot ru/ ; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/17909891;

[12] https://iz dot ru/1522353/2023-06-02/v-minoborony-rf-rasskazali-o-formirovanii-dvukh-armii-i-voennykh-okrugov ; https://voenkom.ric.mil dot ru/ ; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/17909891;

[30] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/06/02/u-bahmuti-my-dosyagly-najgolovnishogo-vysnazhyvshy-voroga-sergij-cherevatyj/

[36] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/06/02/u-bahmuti-my-dosyagly-najgolovnishogo-vysnazhyvshy-voroga-sergij-cherevatyj/

[48] https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664560955982848001?s=20; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664567434076987392?s=20; https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1664571589701124097?s=20; https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/166457 https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1664579823832911873?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1664566260330377218?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1664566263467724800?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1664569259199012864?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1664569262009098242?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1664569265276559360?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1664574695700561923?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/EerikMatero/status/1664562170892374016?s=20; https://t.me/sotaproject/60057; https://t.me/astrapress/28558; https://t.me/astrapress/28559; https://t.me/berdiansk_me/1191336; https://t.me/berdyansk_occ/4508   

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