UA-69458566-1

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28


 


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28

Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 28, 8:30 ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on August 27 in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas and Ukraine live and work in the Russian Federation. 
The first decree allows Donbas residents, Ukrainians, and stateless peoples to live and work in Russia indefinitely.[1] The decree also allows Ukrainian and Donbas residents to work in Russia without a permit so long as they have acquired an identification card within 30 days of the August 27 decree.[2] The order also requires that all Donbas and Ukrainian residents arriving to Russia undergo mandatory fingerprint registration and a medical examination for the use of drugs, psychotropic substances, infectious diseases, and HIV.[3]

The second decree orders Russian social services to provide social payments to individuals forced to leave Ukraine and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR and LNR) for Russia after February 18, 2022.[4] The decree mandates that social services provide monthly pension payments of 10,000 rubles (approximately $167) to all affected peoples, pension payments of 3,000 rubles (approximately $50) to those with disabilities or those over the age of 80, and payments of 5,000 rubles (approximately $83) to World War II veterans.[5] The decree also orders that social services pay pregnant women 10,000 rubles during pregnancy and an additional 20,000 rubles (approximately $332) when the child is born.[6] The decree excludes refugees and specifies that Russian Federal Republics must execute the payments to the parties.[7]

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to trade claims of shelling at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, including at the Tenth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.[8] Russia blocked a proposal aimed at strengthening the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on August 27 in objection to a clause concerning Ukrainian control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.[9] The Ukrainian Mission to the United Nations published a statement signed by a large proportion of NPT signatories at the last meeting of the conference that condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine, nuclear rhetoric, and provocative statements as “inconsistent with the recent P5 Leaders Joint Statement on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races.”[10]

Russia has further begun to implement strategies similar to those used by Iran in attempt to manipulate and possibly delay an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission to the plant in the near future. The New York Times reported on August 27 that the IAEA had assembled a mission consisting of IAEA Chief Rafael Mariano Grossi and 13 experts from “mostly neutral countries” to visit Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant for observation next week.[11] The list notably excludes the United States and the United Kingdom, which Russia views as unfairly biased. The IAEA stated that the IAEA remained in active consultations for an upcoming mission.[12] Ukrainian official sources have reported that Russian special forces are torturing Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant employees to prevent them from disclosing safety violations to IAEA inspectors, that Russian authorities are attempting to limit the presence of Ukrainian employees at the plant, and that occupation authorities have begun collecting signatures from Enerhodar residents demanding an end to Ukrainian shelling to present to inspectors.[13] Manipulation of the nationality of inspectors and attacks on the “fairness” of IAEA inspections are tactics that Iran has long used to obfuscate its obstruction of IAEA inspections. 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin issued two decrees in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas and Ukraine live and work in the Russian Federation.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southeast of Bakhmut and west and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any reported offensive operations in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
  • The Kremlin likely directed a media outlet closely affiliated with Moscow to criticize the Governor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglov for failing to incentivize recruitment to volunteer battalions within the city.
  • Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to facilitate the integration of the education system in occupied territories in Ukraine according to Russian standards.

 

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts)
  • Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops in the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City
  • Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
  • Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border on August 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Dovhenke (20km south of Izyum, 24km northwest of Slovyansk) and Bohorodychne (25km southeast of Izyum, 18km northwest of Slovyansk).[14] Geolocated footage from Bohorodychne posted on August 22 shows a Ukrainian UAV destroying a Russian Auriga-1.2V portable satellite communications station, suggesting that control of the settlement remains contested.[15] Geolocated footage from Yarova (30km southeast of Izyum, 22km northeast of Slovyansk) posted on August 24 shows Ukrainian forces firing on Russian positions, affirming ISW’s previous assessments that Russian forces have been unable to conduct a river crossing of the Siverskyi Donets and move on Slovyansk from the north.[16] ISW has previously assessed that such limited Russian ground attacks south of Izyum are likely spoiling attacks intended to disrupt Ukrainian forces rather than efforts intended to take territory along an axis of advance.[17] Russian forces conducted an airstrike on Husarivka (40km northwest of Izyum, 80km southeast of Kharkiv City) and continued to target settlements along the Kharkiv-Donetsk border with artillery.[18]

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks toward Siversk on August 28 and continued routine shelling of Siversk and surrounding settlements.[19] Russian artillery also struck railway and civilian infrastructure in Kramatorsk.[20]

Russian forces continued ground attacks southeast of Bakhmut on August 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives in the direction of Kodema, Vershyna, and Zaitseve and near Vesele Dolyna and Semihirya (all within 15km southeast of Bakhmut).[21] A Russian milblogger shared footage of Wagner Group forces reportedly posing in Kodema, and Deputy LNR Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev tentatively amplified claims from social media users that Russian-led forces have taken control of Kodema.[22] ISW has previously noted the presence of proxy and Wagner Group forces near Bakhmut, but ISW cannot independently confirm the validity of claimed Russian control of Kodema at this time.[23]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City on August 28. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces withdrew following failed attempts to advance in the Pervomaiske area (10km northwest of Donetsk City) and near Pavlivka (40km southwest of Donetsk City)[24]. Russian sources have made contradictory claims regarding the status of Pavlivka, alternately asserting both Ukrainian control and Russian control of the settlement.[25] Deputy LNR Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed that Russian forces advanced a couple of hundred meters in the Opytne direction (5km north of Donetsk City) on August 28. Such limited reported gains are likely discouraging for Russian-led forces already struggling with low morale, though Kiselev added that this alleged progress is “slow, but better than nothing.”[26] Russian sources reported and shared footage showing high levels of artillery activity in the Vuhledar direction (3km southwest of Pavlivka) and suggested that Marinka (15km west of Donetsk City) as a possible direction for further advances in the coming days.[27] Russian forces continued shelling west of Donetsk City and conducted an airstrike on Pervomaiske on August 28.[28]

Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported an unspecified explosion at a Russian redeployment management base in occupied Svatove, deep within Russian-controlled territory, on August 28.[29] Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for the explosion. Russian sources attributed the explosion to a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on an agricultural company.[30] Haidai stated that Russian forces had previously left Svatove, but did not provide details.[31] ISW cannot confirm details of the explosion or Russian strength of presence in Svatove at this time. Svatove has served as a hub on the Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Severodonetsk.

 

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City on August 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to improve their tactical positions near Svitlynchne, approximately 42km north of Kharkiv City, but were unsuccessful and withdrew.[32] Russian forces conducted an airstrike on Rubizhne, approximately 52km northeast of Kharkiv City, and continued using tanks, and tube and rocket artillery to shell Kharkiv City and settlements to the north and northeast.[33]

 

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

No Russian offensive operations in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts were reported on August 28. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River in northwestern Kherson Oblast and northwest of Kherson City.[34] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched high precision air-to-surface Kh-59 missile at a public bathroom in Novovorontsovka on the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[35] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) had previously reported that Russian forces only have 45% of missiles remaining from the pre-war arsenal, but Russian forces are reportedly continuing to use their limited stockpile of such weapons to strike civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.[36] The Ukrainian Center of Countering Disinformation reported that Russian forces in Kherson Oblast are maneuvering equipment to create the illusion of reinforcements in the region.[37]

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), command posts, and ammunition depots. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian missile units struck a Russian command post in Darivka (approximately 15km northeast of Kherson City) and that Ukrainian forces disrupted Russian GLOCs over the Inhulets River via the Darivka Bridge with missile strikes.[38] Ukrainian officials noted that Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army at the Sokil Plant in Nova Kakhovka.[39] Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian command post and an ammunition depot in Kherson City, and a concentration of manpower and equipment  in Lyubymivka (approximately 18km east of Nova Kakhovka.)[40] Ukrainian aviation struck Russian strongholds in Soldatske and Oleksandrivka (both northwest of Kherson City), and an area of troop and equipment concentration in Vysokopillya on the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[41] Ukrainian missile units also struck Russian ammunition depots in Dudchany (about 58km northeast of Nova Kakhovka) and Davydiv Brid, on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River, and a field ammunition supply point in Voskresenske (approximately 120km southeast of Kherson City).[42] Russian and Ukrainian sources published footage of smoke reportedly after the Ukrainian strikes on a bridge over the Kinka River in Oleshky, approximately 9km southeast of Kherson City.[43] Ukrainian forces have yet to confirm the strike on Russian GLOCs over Kinka River as of the time of this publication.

Russian forces continued to undertake measures to restore Russian GLOCs in Kherson Oblast. Social media footage shows that Russian forces are attempting to construct a pontoon crossing over the Dnipro River, near the damaged Antonivsky Bridge.[44] Satellite imagery published on August 27 also shows Russian forces operating two pontoon ferries near Lvove, approximately 13km southeast of Nova Kakhovka.[45] Russian milbloggers amplified footage that showed some movement on the Antonivsky Bridge on an unspecified date, claiming that Russian forces are still able to move some equipment across the bridge.[46] The footage is grainy, and it is unclear if any military equipment is moving on the bridge. The footage also shows Russian forces pulling a barge.

Russian forces continued to strike Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts with missiles and MLRS rockets. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian Mi-24 helicopters struck unspecified infrastructure in Nikopol with unguided missiles, and that Russian forces launched S-300 missiles and fired Grad MLRS rockets at the settlement throughout the night.[47] Russian forces also fired Uragan MLRS rockets at the Zelenodolsk Hromada (territorial community) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[48] Zaporizhzhia City officials reported that Russian forces launched unspecified missile strikes at Zaporizhzhia City, destroying civilian infrastructure, while the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces struck the Motor Sich production plant in the city.[49]

The British Royal Navy official newspaper NavalNews reported on August 28 that the Russian cargo ship Sparta II with S-300 air-defense systems previously withdrawn from Syria passed through the Bosphorus Strait on August 27. NavalNews indicated that the ship’s destination is Novorossiysk, just southeast of the Russian Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea. Russian forces will likely use the S-300s to strengthen the air defense over Crimea.[50]

Social media footage reportedly showed the activation of Russian air defense systems in Cape Fiolent and near the Alupka-Simeiz area in Crimea on August 28. Russian-appointed Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev claimed that Russian forces shot down an unspecified drone over the sea near Cape Fiolent.[51] Russian Telegram channels also reported an explosion near Alupka which they claimed was the result of Russian air defense activation.[52]

 

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Kremlin likely directed a media outlet closely affiliated with Moscow to criticize the Governor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglov for failing to incentivize recruitment to volunteer battalions within the city. A pro-Kremlin and Russian nationalist outlet Pravda.Ru published an article blaming Beglov and his administration for failing to allocate appropriate funds, issue necessary recruitment directions, or organize a media campaign promoting recruitment into the St. Petersburg-based volunteer battalions “Neva,” “Kronshtadt,” and “Pavlovsk.”[53] Pravda.Ru has long expressed pro-Kremlin views, even publishing a list of all “anti-Russian” publications that criticized the Kremlin, so this attack on Beglov may have originated with the Kremlin.[54] The outlet claimed to have spoken to military recruitment centers in St. Petersburg that stated that Beglov refused to sign a decree for a media campaign plan that would invite artists, musicians, civil society leaders, and social media managers to promote contract service in the city, resulting in only 100 volunteers enlisting since early July. The outlet claimed that Beglov complained about the financial strain of the cost of the volunteer battalion one-time bonuses and the media campaign, while “killing” all free recruitment events in the city to avoid stoking tensions in the city. Beglov reportedly sought to have a “quiet” recruitment and “sabotaged” the process by tasking individual districts in the city with hosting and financing their own recruitment drives with no instructions or assistance from the St. Petersburg City Administration.

Beglov faced significant criticism from the Kremlin prior to the Russian invasion in Ukraine for quarreling with local elites and struggling to resolve endemic issues in St. Petersburg.[55] Russian President Vladimir Putin did not meet with Beglov in early February, likely an indication of poor relations between the two.[56] Beglov attempted to improve his relations with the Kremlin by becoming a mouthpiece for Russian “victory” in Mariupol and making St. Petersburg the patron city of Mariupol. A source close to the Putin administration told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that war was Beglov’s opportunity to repair his public support in St. Petersburg, but it is likely that a recruitment campaign for the volunteer battalions would only alienate inhabitants of the city.[57] ISW has previously reported that some St. Petersburg military recruitment centers distributed summonses to all local men in an effort to advertise contract service, which drew criticism online and prompted the St. Petersburg officials to deny the legitimacy of the letters.[58]

Pravda.Ru’s article is an indicator that individual federal subjects (regions) are using the volunteer battalion recruitment to remain on Putin’s “good side.” Beglov’s concern over tensions within St. Petersburg over recruitment advertisements, if true, may also help explain why Russian officials appear to be shielding Moscow City residents from military recruitment campaigns.[59] Contract service is likely unappealing to most Russians despite high salaries and is a burden on local bureaucratic institutions and the state budget.[60] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) also noted that Russian forces are seeking to generate about 90,000 servicemen, and city dwellers are reportedly expressing concerns over potentially having to fight in Ukraine.[61] Local administrations of federal subjects interested in pleasing Putin are continuing to advertise contract service through all available means. Nizhny Novgorod officials, for example, sent a recruitment email to a mother of several children via the social benefits office and is advertising recruitment at local kindergartens.[62]

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)

Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to facilitate the integration of educational systems in occupied Ukraine into the Russian system on August 28. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian occupation officials in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) released an education plan entitled “The Structural Plan of the Lesson on the Topic ‘My History,’” an introductory course for students of the occupied territories.[63] The GUR emphasized that the report calls on teachers to promote fake historical “facts,” anti-Ukrainian ideologies, and pro-Russia propaganda.[64] Pro-Russia sources reported that 94 Ukrainian teachers from occupied territories in Kharkiv Oblast departed for Russia on August 28 to participate in advanced training in preparation for the upcoming school year.[65] The sources also claimed that a previous group of teachers from occupied territories in Kharkiv Oblast returned from the same training on August 28.[66]

Russian occupation authorities continued to face challenges to their administrative abilities in occupied areas and took measures to crack down on perceived threats to their control on August 28. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that likely Ukrainian partisans hanged former Ukrainian border guard and self-proclaimed head of occupation police Andriy Ryzhkov in Mykhailivka, in the Melitopol district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.[67] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov suggested that Russian security services are “cleaning up” collaborators and that collaborators are increasingly telling Ukrainian special services that they no longer want to work against Ukraine.[68] Fedorov also reported that unspecified actors destroyed a building housing preparations for a referendum in Mirnyi, in the Melitopol district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.[69] Russian-appointed Kherson Oblast Administration Deputy Kirill Stremousov stated that “quiet sabotage and unexplained stupor are an unsuccessful companion in the current realities” when claiming that every Kherson Oblast resident who wishes to be “helpful” is already working for the development of the region.[70]

A pro-Russia source expressed concern surrounding the state of Mariupol on August 28. Russian milblogger Alexander Khodurkovsky reported that there many Mariupol citizens remain in the city despite their wishes to evacuate.[71] Khodurkovsky stated that childless individuals stay with Russian forces in a medical unit and that those with children are staying in temporary accommodation centers in unspecified areas.[72] Khodurkovsky emphasized that decreased humanitarian aid to Mariupol will only intensify humanitarian concerns as winter approaches.[73]

Note:  ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports.  References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270002?index=2&rangeSize=1

[2] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270002?index=2&rangeSize=1

[3] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270002?index=2&rangeSize=1

[4] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270001?index=1&rangeSize=1

[5] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270001?index=1&rangeSize=1

[6] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270001?index=1&rangeSize=1

[7] http://publication dot pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202208270001?index=1&rangeSize=1

[8] https://t.me/mod_russia/19219; https://t.me/mod_russia/19219; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61600; https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-npt-treaty-adoption-blocked-zaporizhzhya/32006790.html

[9] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/27/russia-blocks-un-nuclear-treaty-agreement-over-zaporizhzhia-clause; https://suspilne dot media/275595-rf-zablokuvala-dokument-konferencii-oon-pro-adernu-zbrou-cerez-punkt-pro-zaes/

[10] https://ukraineun.org/press-center/792-zayava-vid-imeni-grupy-derzhav-shchodo-tryvayuchoy-agresiy-rosiy-proty-ukrayny-na-zaklyuchnomu-zasidanni-desyatoy-oglyadovoy-konferentsiy-dnyaz/; https://t.me/energoatom_ua/9251

[11] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/27/world/europe/inspectors-ukraine-nuclear-zaporizhzhia.html

[12] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/27/world/europe/inspectors-ukraine-nuclear-zaporizhzhia.html

[13] https://t.me/CenterCounteringDisinformation/2461; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/25/russians-torturing-us-dont-talk-un-ukraine-nuclear-plant-workers/

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl

[15] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563629419071160325; https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1561761610653384707; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563629425123631105 https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563629427812192256; https://twitter.com/5urpher/status/1562458093438451713; https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1563642777463934977

[16] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563628136830582786; https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1562416277834047488; https://twitter.com/PauliusZaleckas/status/1562434144327516161; https://twitter.com/5urpher/status/1562465322917306368

[17] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-26

[18]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl; https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/4652; https://t.me/slv_vca/3597; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/17732

[19]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5355

[20] https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/5724; https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/4652; https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/5721; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/17732

[21]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl

[22] https://t.me/kommunist/8848; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61603; https://t.me/grey_zone/14810; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61604

[23] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27

[24]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl

[25] https://t.me/rybar/37831

[26] https://t.me/kommunist/8847

[27] https://t.me/nm_dnr/8862; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/16988; https://t.me/rybar/37831; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/6126; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/6127; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61508; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563532361496637442; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1563520619265683457; https://t.me/milinfolive/89554

[28]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl

[29] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5367   

[30] https://t.me/millnr/9360; https://t.me/millnr/9356; https://t.me/kommunist/8851; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/8450; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/8443; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563773998604996610; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563865441575075840; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563785417358557185; https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/39214; https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/6995; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/10562; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/10568

[31] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/5367   

[32] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl

[33] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl

[34] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UTWKvrhJJ8qfLCwMM1JJzMF6Gj99mdPAZhyTTBgKqtvQ3je76hF577e2g1KK8Sczl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GLCBGRpfMCnmFaPUVzUMXgtNaW2uUqo5qjBY2QiRGAbJAmq8sqpCvDU6VqxYp34xl

[35] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1533912723694876/; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/posts/pfbid0v8v264fpqPbn8z42yYs6BnXwSJQE5zLswtMZG2zeTgv6a9J5uUt2gv3gdyGjy5Jol; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563850216629014528

[36] https://kyivindependent dot com/news-feed/ukrainian-intelligence-russia-has-no-more-than-45-of-its-missiles-left; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02RcGhkDnHg7nkY5BSLdBxmYmQdsXweStQX4Xn85kGpawUDF9S91jCfL8H9sRSwiTtl?__cft__[0]=AZWEhpod8M2Ay85OjYUf3nnjXxXuY9eCW7e2aMZ4n5QzKEzv3DzWoxraRHXUGt0kEzqhyLfysxMgPtN8z-X7hs6W9BJpjOhuhdasjuLlBddJCwaGLub7NHQ2SQdiCLsqoC5Rm9QTTUnrYAHPyllmAlP1&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

[37] https://t.me/CenterCounteringDisinformation/2460; https://t.me/khersonskaODA/904  

[38] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1533912723694876/; https://t.me/stranaua/60390

[39] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1533912723694876/; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid026V8gYh45KDFgTNrpxgNPX3FbpjG5Hmt7qYXDdPAuBqJ8Vw9tE9xw2mRp4tLmgrtul; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02sYy82aX6kQeBAoCYPTjmAxe3jVvEXCTzQ68kKMB1rUzNTyRYTCBj6suMeVcMaJDQl?__cft__[0]=AZUwhWX4ME0yoP6yzH3f1nnXx8Xao66pcRGJ3hnhimAaYixt4J90YVv60DuZJJ3rkw3gUJOG4IH1hPS7XZMI3tpDZ6STu9CEIN6FyUCvSkIIM_veyI0N9J9Qyy3iIw0tWhzw2k732DU8QVB8w3ePW6TzihpAG-3jpbP35v-NHafssw&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563846636316639241; https://t.me/The3rdForceUA/9091; https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1563832920263036931; https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1563838297570701312; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563821249595580416; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1563823662251364354; https://t.me/milinfolive/89547; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/10542; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563624567595204608; https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1562416508684439553; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563624574587117568; https://twitter.com/foofighters95/status/1562418793573498881

[40] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1533912723694876/; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid026V8gYh45KDFgTNrpxgNPX3FbpjG5Hmt7qYXDdPAuBqJ8Vw9tE9xw2mRp4tLmgrtul; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02sYy82aX6kQeBAoCYPTjmAxe3jVvEXCTzQ68kKMB1rUzNTyRYTCBj6suMeVcMaJDQl?__cft__[0]=AZUwhWX4ME0yoP6yzH3f1nnXx8Xao66pcRGJ3hnhimAaYixt4J90YVv60DuZJJ3rkw3gUJOG4IH1hPS7XZMI3tpDZ6STu9CEIN6FyUCvSkIIM_veyI0N9J9Qyy3iIw0tWhzw2k732DU8QVB8w3ePW6TzihpAG-3jpbP35v-NHafssw&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R; https://t.me/stranaua/60411; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/17748; https://t.me/trueKherson/2703; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563615438923259904

[41] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1767249800287921/

[42] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1767249800287921/

[43] https://t.me/rybar/37835; https://t.me/stranaua/60421

[44] https://t.me/hueviyherson/24801; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1563873065251049474; https://t.me/stranaua/60365

[45] https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1563652336223866880; https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1563652325847273482

[46] https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/52206; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61574

[47] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1767249800287921/; https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/659; https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/659; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/1270; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1706; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1533912723694876/

[48] https://t.me/vilkul/1823; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/1270; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1706; https://t.me/stranaua/60416

[49] https://t.me/kurtievofficial/5207; https://t.me/pgo_gov_ua/5419; https://t.me/mod_russia/19218

[50] https://t.me/stranaua/60407; https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russian-s-300-missile-system-slips-through-bosporus-towards-war-in-ukraine/

[51] https://t.me/readovkanews/40898; https://t.me/razvozhaev/964; https://t.me/milinfolive/89563; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39679; https://t.me/chpsevas/3291; https://t.me/stranaua/60436; https://t.me/stranaua/60431

[52] https://t.me/chp_crimea/10877; https://t.me/chp_crimea/10874; https://t.me/zalpalyanytsya/1446; https://t.me/stranaua/60391; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/10560

[53] https://www dot pravda.ru/districts/1740695-dobrovolcheskie_batalony/

[54] https://www.rferl.org/a/twenty-russian-news-outlets-you-need-to-read-before-they-get-the-axe/25317371.html

[55] https://meduza dot io/en/feature/2022/06/30/the-warmongering-governor

[56] https://meduza dot io/en/feature/2022/02/12/snow-trash-and-influential-people

[57] https://meduza dot io/en/feature/2022/06/30/the-warmongering-governor

[58] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-15

[59] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24

[60] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-volunteer-units-and-battalions

[61] https://gur dot gov.ua/content/rosiia-zbilshuie-mobilizatsiini-rezervy-i-planuie-mobilizuvaty-blyzko-90-tysiach-viiskovosluzhbovtsiv.html

[62] https://nn dot tsargrad.tv/news/objavlenie-o-sluzhbe-po-kontraktu-razmestili-v-nizhegorodskom-detsadu_613193; https://nn dot tsargrad.tv/news/v-nizhnem-novgorode-mnogodetnaja-mat-poluchila-priglashenie-vstupit-v-tankovyj-batalon_613769; https://opennov dot ru/news/society/2022-08-28/68018

[63] https://gur dot gov.ua/content/okupanty-v-lnr-pidhotuvaly-psevdoistorychnu-metodychku-do-1-veresnia.html

[64] https://gur dot gov.ua/content/okupanty-v-lnr-pidhotuvaly-psevdoistorychnu-metodychku-do-1-veresnia.html

[65] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39678; https://t.me/Kharkov_Z_news/12642

[66] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39678; https://t.me/Kharkov_Z_news/12642

[67] https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/2022/08/28/na-zaporizhzhi-povisyly-kolaboranta/; https://t.me/spravdi/16112  

[68] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/480

[69] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/478; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/17732

[70] https://t.me/Stremousov_Kirill/243

[71] https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2354

[72] https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2354

[73] https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2354

 

 

Saturday, August 27, 2022

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 27, 7:30ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

The volunteer battalions constituting Russia’s 3rd Army Corps will likely deploy to Ukraine in ad hoc combined arms units to renew offensive operations, possibly on the Donetsk City axis and the Southern Axis. The volunteer battalions Russia has been forming have been divided into two general groups, as ISW has previously reported. Some battalions are deploying to the front lines as soon as they have completed their abbreviated initial training. Others have been coalescing into a new 3rd Army Corps.[1] An analysis by Janes Intelligence Group of new images from combat training for elements of the 3rd Army Corps at the Mulino Training Ground in Nizhny Novogorod found 3rd Army Corps troops training with more modern Russian equipment such as BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, T-80BVM and T-90M tanks, and the latest AK-12 assault rifle variants.[2] The other Russian volunteer battalions that have fought in Ukraine, such as the North Ossetian “Alania” Battalion, have not entered combat with older equipment. The fact that the 3rd Army Corps units are training on better gear and apparently being held back to deploy in more coherent combined arms groups suggests that the Russian military intends to commit them to offensive operations and hopes to regain momentum somewhere along the front line. Elements of the 3rd Army Corps are reportedly already deploying from Nizhny Novgorod closer towards Russia’s border with Ukraine. The Georgia-based Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) observed T-80BV and T-90M tanks that were in Mulino likely of the 3rd Army Corps deploy to Rostov Oblast on August 27.[3] If this report is correct, it could suggest that the Russian military intends to commit the 3rd Army Corps to reinforce offensive operations near Donetsk City, where drives around Mariinka, Pisky, and Avdiivka have been stalling after making some gains. Elements of the 3rd Army Corps may also deploy to the Southern Axis. A Russian Local media outlet reported that the Khabarovsk Krai “Baron Korf” signals battalion will support the deployment of Russian field posts in Kherson Oblast and provide command and control to the new Russian 3rd Army Corps, indicating the Kremlin will likely deploy 3rd Army Corps elements to Kherson and Ukraine’s south.[4]3rd Army Corps elements are unlikely to generate effective combat power, however. Better equipment does not necessarily make more effective forces when the personnel are not well-trained or disciplined, as many members of the 3rd Army Corps’ volunteer units are not. Previous military experience is not required for many of 3rd Army Corps’ volunteer elements.[5] Images of the 3rd Army Corp elements have shown the volunteers to be physically unfit and old.[6] Analysts have also noted that Russia’s lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (NCOs) will hurt the 3rd Army Corps effectiveness.[7] ISW has previously commented on reports of indiscipline among the personnel of the 3rd Army Corps as well.[8]

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that a 10-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted assault operations in Kherson Oblast on August 27, suggesting that Russian offensive capabilities in Kherson Oblast have degraded even further. [9] A 10-person group amounts to a squad, which is too small to act effectively as a maneuver unit. If the Southern Operational Command correctly reported the size and mission of this unit, it would indicate that Russian ground forces in Ukraine have degraded to the point that they are attempting to conduct offensive operations and echelons too low to make meaningful gains. ISW has no independent confirmation of the current size of Russian assault echelons attempting ground attacks in Ukraine, but this report is consistent with the Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian logistics capabilities in western Kherson Oblast and ISW’s prior assessments of diminished Russian military morale in Ukraine.[10]

Key Takeaways

  • Volunteer battalions that comprise Russia’s 3rd Army Corps are likely being prepared to attempt offensive combined arms operations but will likely lack sufficient combat power to make a material difference on the battlefield.
  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that a 10-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted assault operations in Kherson Oblast, indicating that Russian offensive capabilities in Kherson Oblast have degraded further.
  • Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum, northeast of Siversk, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian forces targeted Russian airborne command-and-control elements in western Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian and Ukrainian sources traded accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Russian military leadership may be shifting to a new phase of mobilization in central Russia and have likely exhausted pools of potential recruits in more peripheral and disenfranchised regions.
  • Russian authorities are intensifying law enforcement operations in occupied areas.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops in the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City
  • Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
  • Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack southwest of Izyum on August 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to advance in the direction of Brazhkivka, about 15km southwest of Izyum.[11] Russian forces additionally continued artillery strikes and aerial reconnaissance along the Izyum-Slovyansk line and conducted a rocket strike directly on Slovyansk. [12]

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northeast of Siversk on August 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to launch an offensive towards Siversk from the area of Hryhorivka, about 10km northeast of Siversk.[13] The UK Ministry of Defense additionally noted that Russian forces have engaged in heavy fighting around Siversk in the past week as part of intensified offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.[14] Russian troops continued air and artillery strikes on Siversk and its surrounding environs.[15]

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut on August 27. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian assaults in Soledar, 10km northeast of Bakhmut.[16] Russian troops also reportedly attempted to advance from Mayorske and Zaitseve on the outskirts of Horlivka, about 20km southwest of Bakhmut.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that “separate elements” (”Окремі підрозділи” - a term meaning elements at an echelon at or below a battalion) are active in the overall Bakhmut area, which suggests that Russian forces are operating in piecemeal sub-battalion formations around Bakhmut.[18] This report is consistent with previous reporting that advances towards Bakhmut are being led by elements of proxy and Wagner Group forces, as opposed to larger and more coherent battalion-level groups.[19]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near the western outskirts of Donetsk City on August 27. The Ukrainian General staff stated that Russian troops attempted to advance on Nevelske (10km northwest of the outskirts of Donetsk City) and towards Oleksandropil (15km northwest of the outskirts of Donetsk City).[20] Footage taken by a Russian military correspondent indicates that Russian troops have likely advanced into the outskirts of Krasnohorivka, 8km north of Avdiivka, which indicates that Russian forces are continuing efforts to flank Avdiivka from the north.[21] Russian forces continued firing on Ukrainian positions along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[22]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Donetsk City on August 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops launched ground assaults towards Prechistivka and Pavlivka, about 40km southwest of Donetsk City in the Vuhledar area.[23] Russian troops continued air and artillery strikes between Donetsk City and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.[24]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City on August 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted an assault in the area of Dementiivka, about 20km north of Kharkiv City.[25] Russian forces conducted a missile strike against the center of Kharkiv City and shelled surrounding settlements in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.[26]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Ukrainian forces targeted Russian military command-and-control (C2) elements in northwestern Kherson Oblast, likely as part of the campaign to degrade Russian military capabilities on the right bank of the Dnipro River. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck C2 points of Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) of the 11th and 83rd Separate Airborne Brigades in Novovoznesenske (just south of Vysokopillya) and Dudchany (on the right bank of the Dnipro River 27 kilometers southwest of Osokorovka).[27] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that damage to the Antonivsky and Darivka bridges into western Kherson Oblast have made them impassable for heavy equipment.[28] Satellite imagery and footage of the Antonivsky and Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam road bridges shows significant damage that will likely make repairing them difficult.[29]

Russian forces attempted a limited ground assault in Kherson Oblast on August 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance-in-force attempt near Potomkyne in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[30] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian ground assault to cross the Inhulets bridgehead near Lozove, Kherson Oblast, but Ukrainian forces most likely control the bridgehead.[31] Russian forces struck Mykolaiv City with Smerch rockets and continued shelling throughout the line of contact.[32]

Russian and Ukrainian sources again traded accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on August 27. Ukraine state nuclear energy agency Energoatom stated that Russian forces have repeatedly shelled the ZNPP over August 26-27, resulting in numerous fire and radioactive safety risks.[33] The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the ZNPP grounds near nuclear storage facilities.[34] The Russian MoD still has not provided photographic or video evidence of damage at the ZNPP to support its claims that Ukrainian forces are striking the ZNPP. Russian authorities should be able to provide such evidence as Russian forces currently control the ZNPP’s territory.

Russian authorities at the ZNPP are reportedly intimidating Ukrainian ZNPP personnel into silence about current working conditions at the plant. Pro-Kremlin Russian news outlet RIA Novosti reported on August 24 that Rosgvardia forces have arrested ZNPP employees for allegedly collaborating with the Ukrainian military, and that Russian authorities have arrested 26 people for claimed access control violations since Russian forces took control of the plant on March 4.[35] The Telegraph reported on August 25 that undisclosed ZNPP personnel have told The Telegraph that Russian authorities are arresting and torturing ZNPP personnel to prevent them from disclosing safety violations to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and that Russian authorities want to reduce the presence of Ukrainian personnel at the ZNPP.[36] The Telegraph also reported that Russian forces are restricting Ukrainian workers from monitoring the conditions of the ZNPP by prohibiting movement and parking military equipment in turbine halls to prevent passage through them.[37] Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets stated that Ukrainian ZNPP personnel perform essential tasks in ensuring the safety of the ZNPP and that Russian detention of these personnel places the ZNPP at further risk of disaster.[38]

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast on August 27. Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Oleksandr Starukh stated that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City overnight on August 26-27 with unspecified rounds, likely rocket artillery or missiles.[39] Russian forces conducted rocket strikes against Nikopol, Marhanets, and Chervonohryhorivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the north bank of the Dnipro River, likely from positions around Enerhodar.[40] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian HIMARS and M777 artillery ammunition depot near Preobrazhenka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[41] Russian forces conducted tube artillery and airstrikes on settlements cross the line of contact.[42]

Russia continues to transit equipment to staging areas through Crimea. Recently geolocated footage shows Russian trains transporting heavy equipment into Crimea, including engineering and sapper equipment, tanks, and armored personnel carriers.[43]

Satellite imagery shows Russian forces transporting an S-300 air defense system from Maysaf, Syria to Novorossiysk, Russia.[44] Russia may deploy the S-300 elements to Crimea. Russian forces pulling military assets from Syria for use in Ukraine indicates that Russian forces are facing challenges sustaining or improving their air defense capabilities using equipment in Russia.

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian military leadership may be shifting to a new phase of mobilization after having exhausted recruitment efforts and sources of combat power on Russia’s geographic and socioeconomic periphery. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated on August 27 that the Moscow, Leningrad, and St. Petersburg areas are increasingly generating forces, whereas previously the onus for volunteer mobilization largely has fallen on more economically depressed and peripheral regions in eastern Russia.[45] The GUR similarly reported that the Kremlin has effectively exhausted mobilization potential in Tuva, Buryatia, republics of the Caucasus, and other ethnic minority enclaves that ISW has previously assessed were bearing the brunt of mobilization efforts.[46] The GUR noted that the Kremlin has directed the heads of Russian federal subjects (regions) in more western and well-off regions to lead regionally based recruitment campaigns and that the majority of recruits in Moscow Oblast are contracting into the 1st Guards Tank Army.[47] As the onus of partial mobilization shifts to more economically advantaged, densely populated, and better-educated regions of Russia, domestic opposition to recruitment efforts will likely grow. Recruitment drives in western Russia remain unlikely to generate significant increases in combat capability.

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing efforts to incentivize and train new recruits for service in Ukraine. Social media footage posted on August 27 indicates that the Bashkortostan's “Shaimuratov” volunteer battalion likely deployed to Ukraine between August 25-27.[48] The “Shaimuratov” Battalion announced it was ready to deploy to Ukraine on August 25 and received protective blessings from Russian clergy on August 26.[49] Norwegian outlet The Barents Observer reported that the northwestern Russian Republic of Karelia is now offering up to 250,000 rubles ($4,146) per month to recruits.[50] A Russian milblogger reposted a recruitment ad for the “Avanguard” OMON battalion and stated that the starting salary is 75,000 to 80,000 rubles ($1,243-$1,327) per month.[51] OMON is a system of specialized police units within Rosgvardia that typically requires more specialized recruitment, so the advertisement suggests that law enforcement bodies are also struggling to recruit and are broadening their mobilization aperture. Russian outlet News29RU reported on August 26 that veterans established a training center for future soldiers in Arkhangelsk Oblast, which indicates that Arkhangelsk likely lacks the formal infrastructure to facilitate the training of new recruits and relies on informal sources, such as veterans' organizations, to build out combat capacity.[52]

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)

Russian occupation authorities are continuing to intensify law enforcement efforts in occupied areas in the face of internal tensions and partisan threats. Russian outlet RIA Novosti posted pictures of Russian Spetznaz detachments, possibly from the Special Purpose Center of the Federal State Security Service (FSB), carrying out spot checks and other law enforcement tasks in occupied Kharkiv Oblast.[53] Russian Telegram channel Baza similarly claimed that police divisions of the Kherson and Zaporizhia occupation administrations are subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, which indicates that Russian authorities lack confidence in the ability of occupation administrations to provide adequate security to Russian government assets in occupied areas.[54] First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration, Sergi Kiriyenko, stated that Russia has additionally allocated law enforcement funds so that every school in occupied areas of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhia has two armed guards on its premises by the start of the school year on September 1.[55] Kiriyenko indicated that this initiative will be carried out in tandem with Rosgvardia, internal ministries of Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) and selected private security companies.[56] Taken together, these individual data points suggest that Russian authorities are increasingly concerned with securing occupied areas.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-23; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20August%2014.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20August%2010.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20Aug%207%202022.pdf; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-25; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19

[2] https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469549852172288; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469591829164034; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469689874894849; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469697114583041; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469702139346944; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563485941431697409; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1560182580154142721; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1560184660495421442; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1562799447129481217; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1562800470480982017; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563097225005535233; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563272896113324032; https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563276884074328064; https://twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1563282803415867392;

[3] https://te.legra.ph/Rossiya-perebrasyvaet-na-front-nedavno-sformirovannyj-3-armejskij-korpus-08-27

[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19; http://amurpress dot info/strategy/34550/

[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-23; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20August%2014.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20August%2010.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20Aug%207%202022.pdf

[6] https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469689874894849

[7] https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1563616545007611905

[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20August%2021.pdf

[9] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1250265595731186

[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28

[11] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl;

[12] https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/5707; https://t.me/slv_vca/3585; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[14] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1563406537401389056

[15] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWaoPWR7gT4; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl

[16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl

[18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[19] https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/52197; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61510; https://t.me/rybar/37804; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14

[20] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[21] GRAPHIC: https://t.me/Voenkor_reZervist/2868; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61518

[22] https://t.me/anna_news/38235; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1563263212996669440; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1563263205006536711; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl

[23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[24] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://t.me/stranaua/60250; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61508

[25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://t.me/synegubov/3997

[26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://t.me/synegubov/3997; https://t.me/synegubov/3997; https://t.me/synegubov/3994; https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1563451574651060225; https://twitter.com/hochu_dodomu/status/156335930577600102; https://t.me/spravdi/16088; https://t.me/stranaua/60285; https://t.me/der_rada/2438; https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1563453068309540864; https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1563460149075116033; https://twitter.com/Noobieshunta_/status/1563412768140980224; https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1563115879986241538  

[27] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1225842251323700

[28] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1250265595731186

[29] https://t.me/stranaua/60222; https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1563267758061948930; https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1563267758061948930; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1563477755680804865; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1562523580633870341; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1562523589164683264; https://t.me/perepichka_news/42366; https://twitter.com/Armia_fm/status/1563175034213916672

[30] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[31] https://t.me/mod_russia/19193

[32] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1225842251323700; https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/2298; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl

[33] https://t.me/energoatom_ua/9233

[34] https://t.me/mod_russia/19194

[35] https://ria dot ru/20220824/zaderzhanie-1811857408.html

[36] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/25/russians-torturing-us-dont-talk-un-ukraine-nuclear-plant-workers/

[37] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/25/russians-torturing-us-dont-talk-un-ukraine-nuclear-plant-workers/

[38] https://t.me/dmytro_lubinetzs/895

[39] https://t.me/starukhofficial/3624

[40] https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1699; https://t.me/vilkul/1819; https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/647

[41] https://t.me/mod_russia/19193

[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fHMWoXPRpCRxrLk9gMsaaH1tkJYRdjJA91WGec2n9GsQn9sSrsY7HAuqnvyDucDUl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02MwkKwMnfPWLSDoajzmmRUFTtuUgCYszhgsQsG3TT2ug5TNZzGgeMMmeiCvaMdVyVl; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/12195; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/12192

[43] https://t.me/RJBNews/2537; https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1563450618890489856; https://twitter.com/RadioJustBack/status/1563439791667945472; https://twitter.com/CrimeaUA1/status/1563275645571870720; https://twitter.com/CrimeaUA1/status/1563275649480937473; https://twitter.com/CrimeaUA1/status/1563275652043661320; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/17692

[44] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1563214929938694144; https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1563309536626151424; https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1563520254386802691; https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1563501206668189697

[45] https://suspilne dot media/275624-rosia-zadiala-u-vijni-proti-ukraini-160-tisac-vijskovih-ne-vrahovuuci-rosgvardiu-gur/  

[46] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18; https://gur.gov dot ua/content/v-moskovskii-ta-leninhradskii-oblastiakh-rf-posyliuietsia-prykhovana-mobilizatsiia.html

[47] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/v-moskovskii-ta-leninhradskii-oblastiakh-rf-posyliuietsia-prykhovana-mobilizatsiia.html

[48] https://twitter.com/Cicke69/status/1563558093501317120; https://twitter.com/Cicke69/status/1563558266969370624; https://twitter.com/Cicke69/status/1563557574745948161

[49] https://t.me/bashbat02/430; https://t.me/bashbat02/435

[50] https://thebarentsobserver dot com/en/security/2022/08/youth-center-arkhangelsk-takes-training-new-warriors

[51] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61495  

[52] https://www.news29 dot ru/m/obschestvo/V_Pomore_gotovit_severjan_k_kontraktnoj_sluzhbe_budut_v_specialno_sozdannom_centre/97759; https://thebarentsobserver dot com/en/security/2022/08/youth-center-arkhangelsk-takes-training-new-warriors

[53] https://t.me/rian_ru/175432; https://t.me/ok_spn/20835; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1563432998573604864; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1561800706205548544; https://t.me/ok_spn/20788; https://t.me/rian_ru/175174; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/61473

[54] https://t.me/bazabazon/12935

[55] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/15578041

[56] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/15578041