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Monday, August 24, 2020

Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders

 August 24, 2020, 6:30 pm EDT

By George Barros

The Lukashenko regime began a new phase in its crackdown by starting to disperse and arrest protesters and conduct targeted arrests against opposition leaders in Minsk for the first time since August 19. Belarusian authorities detained Minsk Tractor Works (MTZ) strike leader Sergei Dvlevsky and opposition leader Olga Kovalkova – both members of opposition leader Svitlana Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council – on August 24.[1] Belarusian security forces also detained Alexander Lavrinovich – the strike leader at the state-owned Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT) – and Anatoly Bokun – the strike leader at the Belaruskali potash fertilizer plant – on August 24.[2] Authorities released Bokun after fining him 675 rubles on August 24.[3] Authorities had previously arrested a key Belaruskali strike organizer on August 20, but he reportedly managed to escape his detention facility.[4] Lavrinovich’s status is unknown as of this update.[5] Authorities brought Kovalkova to the Akrestin St. detention facility – a location the opposition associates with the physical abuse of detainees.[6] The opposition had marched on the Akrestin St. detention facility in a poorly organized effort directed by the NEXTA Telegram channel on August 18.[7] The Belarusian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has not attempted to disperse any protests in Minsk or detain protesters since August 19.[8] Belarusian authorities ended the last round of mass detentions on August 14 when they released a large number of detainees. The renewed dispersions and arrests are likely intended to intimidate protesters. The Lukashenko regime will likely increase the scope of targeted arrests against opposition leaders and use force against protesters in the coming week.

President Alexander Lukashenko likely took advantage of the small scale of protests today to demonstrate his renewed willingness to use force to disperse them and to arrest demonstrators. There were no large-scale protests in Belarus on August 24. A few hundred protesters came to Independence Square in Minsk around 7:00 pm Minsk time but riot police detained some and dispersed the rest.[9] Localized small-scale protests continue to occur in Belarus but security forces are consistently dispersing them.[10]


NEXTA issued directions for new protest activity for August 25 that will likely lead to direct confrontation between protesters and Belarusian authorities given Lukashenko’s actions. A NEXTA post at 10:29 pm Minsk time on August 24 directed Belarusians to gather at the Belarusian Investigative Committee in Minsk at 10:00 am local time and then gather at Independence Square at 6:00 pm.[11] The Investigative Committee of Belarus summoned Pavel Latushko, a Coordinating Council member, to appear at its premises for questioning about alleged “calls for actions aimed at causing harm to national security” on August 25 at 10:00 Minsk time.[12] NEXTA is likely trying to direct protesters to the Investigative Committee building to disrupt Latushko’s scheduled questioning. NEXTA also instructed residents in other cities to hold their own demonstrations at 6:00 pm Minsk time on August 25. NEXTA  stated that a ”detailed strategy” on how to ”return power to the people” and an ”important appeal from Svitlana Tikanouskaya” would be presented sometime this week.[13] Belarusian security forces will likely confront protesters at the Investigative Committee building.  It is unclear if they will attempt to disrupt or otherwise interfere with protests at Independence Square, which they have not done over the past 10 days.


The opposition may be setting conditions for a grassroots leadership structure to emerge inside Belarus. Opposition leader Olga Kolesnikova urged Belarusians to initiate legal petitions to recall their MPs and regional officials in a Coordination Council briefing on August 24. Lukashenko will likely not allow this effort to remove any officials. The process of Belarusian opposition activists collecting signatures, however, may facilitate the emergence of a better organized indigenous opposition network necessary for sustained and more organized protest activity. The Belarusian opposition movement currently lacks a clear leadership structure inside Belarus and is dependent on announcements from Tikanouskaya in Lithuania or NEXTA in Poland to organize large-scale protests.[14] This initiative may also be an effort by the Vilnius-based Tikanouskaya to develop her own abilities to control protest events in Belarus and thereby reduce her reliance on the Warsaw-based NEXTA, which has repeatedly appeared to disrupt her plans.[15]


The US is engaging the Belarusian opposition in a high-profile manner despite Kremlin warnings not to meet with opposition figures. US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun met with Tikanouskaya in Vilnius, Lithuania on August 24.[16] Biegun urged Lukashenko at a press conference on the same day to facilitate dialogue and engage all stakeholders.[17] Biegun also stated the US has no “indication beyond some of the public remarks that we’ve heard” that the Kremlin is preparing a possible military intervention into Belarus.[18] Biegun’s statement contradicts elements of ISW’s previous assessments. The Kremlin and Lukashenko previously accused the US of “foreign interference” in Belarus.[19] "Foreign interference" is a legal ground for a military assistance according to Russia and Belarus’ Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreements. The Kremlin previously stated it observed “foreign interference” in Belarus but has not military intervened because Lukashenko has not asked for assistance.[20] The Kremlin has stated repeatedly it would intervene military in Belarus at Lukashenko’s first request.[21]  


The Kremlin is likely extracting concessions from Lukashenko in return for supporting his continued rule.  Concessions likely include the deployment of Russian military hardware in Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko had their fourth phone call since protests began on August 24.[22] Lukashenko informed Putin about his measures to restore order in Belarus. The Belarusian Defense Ministry reportedly signed a deal with the Kremlin-owned Almaz-Antey defense company on August 24 at the Army 2020 annual international military-technical forum in Moscow. The Belarusian defense minister reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems until 2025.[23] Almaz-Antey is the holding company for the manufacturers of the S-300, S-400, and S-500 Russian air-defense systems.[24] Lukashenko may have agreed to this deal as a condition for Kremlin support in Belarus.


The Kremlin likely seeks to deploy anti-access/area denial weapon systems in Belarus to contest NATO and Eastern European airspace more than it already does with systems deployed in Kaliningrad. Lukashenko previously declined the Kremlin’s multiple requests to expand strategic Russian airbases in Belarus since at least 2015.[25] ISW assessed on August 21 that Lukashenko likely made concessions to Putin under duress while Lukashenko was losing control over Belarus before the Kremlin’s intervention.[26]


ISW is monitoring the situation and will provide further updates.

Click here to download the PDF. 


[1] https://www.intellinews(.)com/leading-members-of-belarus-coordinating-council-and-strike-movements-have-been-arrested-as-belarus-lukashenko-starts-crackdown-190296/

[3] https://news.tut(.)by/economics/697923.html

[4] https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/21/08/2020/5f3fcf9a9a794700f5463764

[5] https://news.tut(.)by/economics/697923.html

[6] https://www.facebook.com/KavalkovaVolya/posts/1669394853218051 ; https://www.dw(.)com/ru/%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA-%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB-%D0%B6%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8-%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2-%D0%B2-%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%D0%B8-18082020/av-54614818 ;

[8] https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/08/19/omon-razognal-miting-u-minskogo-traktornogo-zavoda-do-etogo-sluchaya-aktsiyam-protesta-v-gorode-ne-prepyatstvovali-nedelyu

[10] https://t(.)me/nexta_live/9435

[11] https://t(.)me/nexta_live/9454

[12] https://naviny(.)by/new/20200824/1598274073-latushko-vyzvali-v-sledstvennyy-komitet-na-25-avgusta

[13] https://t(.)me/nexta_live/9454

 

[20] https://www.belta(.)by/politics/view/lavrov-vmeshatelstvo-v-belarus-izvne-proishodit-s-tseljju-navjazat-svoi-porjadki-403367-2020

[22] http://kremlin(.)ru/events/president/news/63938

[23] https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/24/08/2020/5f43c9f29a7947ddefc83127

[25] https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/06/10/2015/5613ebe59a794769839c9e3f ; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/1501418; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/2019/11/14/12811502.shtml

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Sunday, August 23, 2020

Warning: Lukashenko and NEXTA Apparently Move Towards Confrontation After Sunday Protests

 August 23, 2020, 7:00 pm EDT

By Mason Clark

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko militarized his response to protests the evening of August 23. Lukashenko made a staged propaganda trip to the Presidential Palace in Minsk the evening of August 23. He and his 15-year-old son arrived via helicopter in military gear carrying rifles.[1] Lukashenko briefly toured the barricades around the Presidential Palace and spoke with security personnel, who shouted “we’re with you until the end!”[2] Lukashenko’s press office released a video as he departed Minsk via helicopter in which Lukashenko can be heard commenting “look at how the rats [referring to protesters] scatter.”[3] Belarusian authorities cut internet access in Minsk for the duration of Lukashenko’s visit.[4] Lukashenko’s press secretary issued a statement that Lukashenko was “controlling the situation” and directing security forces (who were predominantly stationary) throughout the day and falsely claimed protesters “literally ran” when security forces deployed.[5] Belarusian security forces did not take any action against protesters on August 23. Lukashenko likely made the trip to frame himself as a strongman in the face of mass protests. Lukashenko will likely increasingly militarize his response to protesters in the coming week.

Telegram Channel NEXTA issued two posts the evening of August 23 seeking to consolidate its control over the protest movement.

NEXTA published the eight talking points the leaders of Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council were supposed to make in their planned speech on Independence Square.[6] NEXTA claimed the Coordination Council was unable to make its statement because security forces “blocked the transport of the equipment” to the Planeta Hotel. The Coordination Council intended to make its statement in Independence Square, however.  NEXTA directed protesters toward the Planeta Hotel and Belarusian security forces before the Council began speaking, forcing it to reposition itself to the Planeta.[7] The published talking points reiterated the existing demands of the protesters – acceptance of Tikanouskaya’s electoral victory, Lukashenko’s resignation, an end to abuses by security forces, and an ongoing nationwide strike - and made a new call to begin an unspecified procedure to recall deputies of the Belarusian legislature and local councils. The Coordination Council did not make an independent statement the evening of August 23. NEXTA thus successfully took control of events from the Coordination Council by redirecting protests, disrupting the Council’s attempt to present its talking points in person, and then releasing the talking points itself.

NEXTA additionally issued a second post framing the Sunday protests as a clear indicator that  Lukashenko will eventually fall. NEXTA claimed 250,000 protesters marched in Minsk and, while admitting that “not everything went to plan,” claimed the Sunday march demonstrated Lukashenko has lost his nerve. NEXTA stated the August 23 protests proved Lukashenko’s government will not survive “and even Lukashenko himself understands this, grabbing his weapon.” NEXTA concluded “the only question is how many weeks are left until the end,” framing the protests as an ongoing struggle to fully drive Lukashenko out. The message concluded by stating NEXTA will issue instructions for August 24 and the next few days tomorrow morning – August 24.

Lukashenko and NEXTA are both framing August 23 as a turning point toward a confrontation. Lukashenko will likely continue to militarize his framing of his response to the protests and claim that he has demonstrated he retains the support of security forces. NEXTA asserted its control of the protest movement at the expense of Tikanouskaya and the Coordination Council. NEXTA is newly framing the protests as purely a struggle to oust Lukashenko, differing from the Coordination Council’s attempts at dialogue and emphasis on peaceful protest. These converging framings will lead to further rhetorical clashes in the coming week with an increasing likelihood of violence.

ISW is monitoring the situation and will provide further updates.


[1] https://t((.))me/belta_telegramm/16009.

[2] https://t((.))me/belta_telegramm/16017.

[3] https://t((.))me/pul_1/1377.

[4] https://www.svaboda.org/a/30798610.html; https://www.facebook.com/a1belarus/posts/3147355055319014.

[5] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697768.html.

[6] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9386.

[7] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-nexta-telegram-channel-divides.html.

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Warning: Anti-Lukashenko Protests Erupt across Belarus

  August 23, 2020, 2:45 pm EDT

By George Barros

Massive protests in the Belarusian capital of Minsk have naturally seized the world’s attention. But Belarusians are protesting throughout the entire country and in almost every significant urban area. Most protests outside Minsk are relatively small and have been peaceful despite persistent intimidation from Belarusian authorities and regime-organized counter-protests. The extent of the protest wave suggests no significant regional variations in opposition to Alexander Lukashenko. This pattern contrasts with that observed during the 2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, which saw significant regional differences. Lukashenko appears to have alienated the Belarusian population across the board and brought into being a country-wide opposition to his oppression and possibly to his continued rule.


ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

Click here to download the PDF.

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Warning: NEXTA Telegram Channel Divides Protests in Minsk as Lukashenko Prepares for Crackdown

 August 23, 2020, 1:00 pm EDT

By Mason Clark 

Telegram channel NEXTA has disrupted the August 23 protest in Minsk. NEXTA unexpectedly changed plans for today’s march in Minsk’s Independence Square by directing protesters to instead move toward Belarusian army positions at Victory Park around 4:00 pm local time, a move that could be portrayed as intended to provoke a confrontation with the Belarusian military.[1] Representatives of opposition presidential candidate Svetlana Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council arrived and asked protesters to move away from security forces, defusing the situation. As the crowd was beginning to draw back at 5:50 pm local time, NEXTA issued new instructions directing protesters to march on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s palace, approximately one mile northwest of Victory Park.[2] Thousands of protesters began moving up the road toward the palace. The Belarusian military quickly began assembling defensive positions in front of the palace.[3] After 30 minutes, as protesters were nearing the palace, NEXTA issued new instructions asking protesters to disperse and return to Independence Square, the original stated focus of the Sunday protests.[4] NEXTA claimed Lukashenko is currently in the Presidential Palace and planning an evacuation.[5] Protesters remain in place around the Presidential palace.[6]

Lukashenko is likely preparing for a crackdown on protesters. Lukashenko’s press office released footage of Lukashenko arriving at the Presidential Palace via helicopter and emerging in a bullet proof vest and carrying a rifle.[7]  Belarusian riot police are taking up positions around Independence Square.[8] Belarusian military units remain in place both in front of the Presidential Palace and in front of Victory Park. Lukashenko is likely framing himself as a strongman in preparation for a crackdown.

As of 7:30 pm local time, protesters are now divided and the original plan for the Sunday rally – a key policy statement by Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council – has been disrupted. Protesters are now spread out across much of northern Minsk, instead of the original NEXTA plan of concentrating in Independence Square. Representatives of Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council began making statements in front of Independence Square calling for continued protests and for Lukashenko to step down.[9] This was likely an ad hoc decision to attempt to refocus on the protests after NEXTA divided them by directing protesters to move toward security forces. The net effect of NEXTA’s instructions will have been to thin out a massive crowd that Belarusian security forces will likely be able to disperse and crush if Lukashenko so chooses.

NEXTA is overtly dividing the protest movement and weakening Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council. NEXTA changed plans for the Sunday march with no notice, despite previously promoting the protest as a stationary demonstration in Independence Square. NEXTA’s action was not prompted by security concerns, as security forces had made no attempt to prevent the crowd from gathering in Independence Square or to disrupt or disperse once it had gathered there.  NEXTA has increasingly asserted its control over the Belarusian protest movement in direct competition with Svetlana Tikanouskaya and her Coordination Council.

NEXTA has demonstrated the capability to organize and direct protests. NEXTA amplifies nationwide protests and tactically directs the physical movement of protesters in Minsk. NEXTA first issued tactical instructions to an ongoing protest on August 17, when it directed protesters toward a Belarusian detention facility without further instructions.[10] NEXTA demonstrated increasingly precise and timely control on August 23, issuing several directions to protesters to move away from previously planned demonstrations in Independence Square, then march toward two separate concentrations of Belarusian security forces, and finally to go back to Independence Square. On both August 17 and August 23, NEXTA disrupted the plans of Tikanouskaya’s key representatives in Minsk, Maria Kolesnikova and Olga Kovalkova, forcing them to follow NEXTA’s lead in efforts to prevent confrontations with security forces.

NEXTA’s actions reinforce elements of the Kremlin’s information operation in Belarus intentionally or unintentionally. NEXTA has clearly demonstrated its ability to direct protests several times during the day, to choose and revise protesters destinations, and to disrupt Tikanouskaya’s plans. Several of its decisions – including diminishing the influence of the Coordination Council, directing protesters toward a World War II memorial, potentially provoking confrontations, and militarizing the rhetoric of the protests – advance the Kremlin’s information operation in Belarus.

ISW is monitoring the situation and will provide further updates.

Click here to download the PDF.



[2] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9327.

[3] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9333.

[4] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9338.

[5] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9344.

[6] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html

[8] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html; https://t.me/nexta_live/9361

[9] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html.

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Warning: Violent Confrontation between Protesters and Military Likely

August 23, 2020, 10:00 am EDT

By Mason Clark

 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely preparing to suppress protests in Minsk by force. Lukashenko appeared in a military uniform during public appearances on August 22, likely to signal a new phase of his response.[1] The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released a statement on Telegram the morning of August 23 claiming protesters are waving the flags of “fascists” and stated the military will directly protect World War II memorials in Belarus.[2] The defense of World War II monuments has been a major theme of Russian information operations for years.[3]  The Belarusian military began deploying in Minsk the morning of August 23.[4] The military is assembling in Victory Park, about two miles north of the main protest location at Independence Square.[5] Belarusian army units are preparing barricades and setting up barbed wire.[6] The head of the Minsk Metropolitan Police additionally warned protesters to halt two weeks of illegal protests that have ”damaged” Minsk and not to take part in planned “provocations.”[7]

The Kremlin information operation on Belarus is expanding in the English language space. English language propaganda is connecting the red and white opposition flag to Belarusian Nazism.[8] Russian troll accounts are posting images of people doing Nazi salutes with the opposition flag.[9] The accusation that protest leaders are Nazis is explicitly parallel with the framing the Kremlin used about the 2014 Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine.

Protests are continuing around Belarus without major interference from security forces. Several protests numbering in the thousands are gathering in Belarusian cities including Brest, Grodno, Zhodino, Bobruisk, and others, predominantly the sites of ongoing nationwide strikes.[10] Belarusian security forces are likely concentrating in Minsk to contest the major march, but Belarusian military forces concentrated in the Grodno region for exercises could also challenge protesters there. There is no evidence that they are yet doing so, however.

Opposition Telegram channel NEXTA is likely attempting to provoke a fight with the Belarusian military. NEXTA has promoted the August 23 “March of the New Belarus” as a stationary event throughout the past week, calling on protesters to assemble in Minsk’s Independence Square from 2:00 pm to 7:00 pm local time.[11] The morning of August 23, NEXTA issued a follow-up statement calling on Belarusians to gather and stating that “[NEXTA has] a clear plan on how to get rid of the occupiers with minimal losses.”[12] NEXTA has never referenced “losses” in any prior statements and has avoided calls to confront security forces. The decision to direct the protesters toward a concentration of security forces and a World War II memorial appears to feed directly into the Russian information campaign, and is a diversion from the previous tight protest focus on Lukashenko’s misdeeds.

Protesters gather in front of Belarusian army barricades around Minsk's Victory Park. Photo: tut.by

An estimated 200,000 Belarusians gathered on Independence Square and the surrounding streets by 3:00 pm local time.[13] NEXTA issued new instructions at 3:15 pm local time, calling for a moment of silence at 3:30 pm before a march at 4:00 pm, “with destination to be announced.”[14] At 4:00 pm, NEXTA issued instructions direct protesters to march to the “Planeta Hotel,” directly across the street from Victory Park and the Belarusian military deployment.[15] Protesters began assembling across the street from security forces in Victory Park around 4:30 pm local time.[16] Two representatives of opposition leader Svetlana Tikanouskaya (Maria Kolesnikova and Olga Kovalkova) arrived at Victory Park just after 5:00 pm local time and asked protesters to move back from the fence with the security forces and "not create provocations."[17] Their arrival likely indicates Tikanouskaya and the Coordination Council do not agree with NEXTA’s attempt to provoke a confrontation with security forces.

 

NEXTA likely seeks to provoke a confrontation with security forces to militarize the protest movement. Lukashenko will likely exploit this opportunity to crack down on protesters under the pretext of protecting monuments.

 

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.


[1] https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/lukashenko-vpervye-za-chetvert-veka-prishlos-prinimat-samoe-serjeznoe-reshenie-403766-2020/.

[2] https://t((.))me/modmilby/2538; https://news.tut.by/society/697752.html.

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/27/world/europe/27cnd-estonia.html.

[4] https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1297474999570309120?s=20.

[5] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html.

[6] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html.

[7] https://news.tut((.))by/society/697750.html.

[8] https://twitter.com/id_communism/status/1296390343559184384; https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1297507108603207680; https://twitter.com/int_communism/status/1297488479878815744; https://twitter.com/betatrash/status/1297405880506494978; https://twitter.com/bulbaloo/status/1297203531829719041; https://twitter.com/ElaineG16/status/1296976889177935873.

[9] https://twitter.com/ackrazam/status/1296391801654448128.

[10] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html.

[11] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/8903.

[12] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9178.

[13] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9271.

[14] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9255.

[15] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9276.

[16] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9310

[17] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697738.html.

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