Warning: Lukashenko Mobilizes Military to Western Border as Local Protest Organization Emerges

 August 22, 2020, 2:30 pm EDT

By Mason Clark

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko fully mobilized the Belarusian military and continued to emphasize his false claims of a NATO military threat on August 22. Lukashenko traveled to the Western region of Grodno, bordering Lithuania and Poland, on August 21 and 22. Grodno has previously been a protest hotspot and was the site of the only major defection (now suppressed) by regional officials to date in Belarus on August 18.[1]  Lukashenko claimed during a meeting with military officers in Grodno that the West continues to attempt a “color revolution” against Belarus but that Belarusian authorities remain in place and are “strongly resisting.” [2] Lukashenko falsely claimed NATO is mobilizing troops in Poland and Lithuania to add an “external factor” as this color revolution falters.[3] NATO is not mobilizing protests and protests remain strong. Lukashenko additionally continued his efforts to reorient the Belarusian crisis as a struggle between NATO and Russia, stating NATO wants to use Belarus as a “springboard” to destroy Russia later.[4]

Lukashenko may be attempting to distract attention from protests in Minsk and around the country by focusing on a false Polish and Lithuanian threat, in addition to preparing for further protest crackdowns. Lukashenko brought the Belarusian military to full combat readiness in a claimed response to this false NATO mobilization.[5] Lukashenko further reconsolidated his control over Grodno on August 22, appointing Health Minister (and Grodno native) Vladamir Karanik as regional governor.[6] The Belarusian Ministry of Information restricted Belarusian access to around 75 websites on August 21 and 22, primarily opposition news outlets and the websites of Belarusian opposition leaders.[7] Lukashenko will continue to attempt to restrict and shape the information space with Kremlin support. Lukashenko’s focus on Grodno will likely enable crackdowns on potential further protests in Grodno.

Lukashenko may additionally be posturing for future actions against Lithuania and Poland as part of offensive hybrid efforts. ISW previously warned the Kremlin’s support for Lukashenko may enable attempts to destabilize Poland or Lithuania under the pretext of responding to “foreign interference.”[8] Lukashenko may also be falling for his own false information campaign claiming a NATO operation against Belarus is imminent and be posturing forces on the Polish and Lithuanian border to defend against a self-created threat.

Protests continued in Minsk on August 22 without interference from security forces. Protests continued in Minsk on a small scale on August 22 without overt organization from major opposition telegram channel NEXTA. Women in white – a form of protest that emerged in the last two weeks – began forming a human chain in downtown Minsk around 2:00 pm local time and marched to Minsk’s independence square throughout the afternoon, intentionally passing key landmarks including the Interior Ministry and Belarusian KGB.[9] Protesters began gathering on Minsk’s Independence Square around 7:00 pm local time.[10] Independent media reported around a thousand people had gathered by 7:30 pm local time.[11] Security forces were present in small numbers monitoring the Minsk protest but did not impede the march.[12]

Emerging local organizers likely organized the Saturday protests. Additionally, the Belarusian Interior Ministry announced on August 22 it had begun targeting street protest organizers.[13] Lukashenko’s administration has not previously used language referring to local protest organizers, instead focusing on its claims of foreign organization of the protests. The change in rhetoric may reflect a changing protest dynamic, as it is not in Lukashenko’s interest to admit to indigenous protest organization. A public-facing local protest coordination organization has not yet emerged, but the Belarusian protest movement is likely developing domestic capabilities.  NEXTA notably did not call for Saturday’s protests, and Lukashenko’s restriction of Belarusians’ access to opposition media may hinder NEXTA’s and Tikhanouskaya’s abilities to shape and direct protests, which was clearly Lukashenko’s intent. This local organization will likely increase the longevity of the protest movement.

The current known centers of protest coordination, NEXTA and Tikanouskaya, are predominantly oriented on planned August 23 protests. Opposition coordination of the protest movement has previously come primarily from Belarusians operating outside of Belarus – including the Poland-based NEXTA telegram channel and opposition presidential candidate Svetlana Tikanouskaya’s headquarters in Lithuania. NEXTA and Tikanouskaya both reduced their explicit calls for protests in Belarus on August 18, focusing their planning on preparing for marches on Sunday August 23. NEXTA promoted the August 22 march but did not call for it.[14]

The Kremlin’s information operation in Belarus will likely attempt to exploit demonstrations on August 23 to promote false framing that Lithuania and NATO are interfering in Belarus.[15] Lithuanian television anchor Andrius Tapinas announced on August 14 his intent to organize a human chain stretching from Lithuania to Belarus as a demonstration of solidarity on August 23.[16] The planned event imitates and occurs on the anniversary of the 1989 Baltic Way – a August 23, 1989 demonstration in which approximately two million Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians formed a 675-kilometer human chain to demonstrate to protest Soviet occupation. Tapinas claimed the demonstration would need about 25,000-30,000 Lithuanian participants and expressed a desire to link with a similar human chain in Belarus planned for August 23.[17] Lukashenko sent Belarusian security forces to prevent this human chain on August 15.[18] Russian language media described Tapinas as a “pro-Lithuanian government propagandist.”[19] The Kremlin’s information operation will likely use the presence of human chains in Belarus as evidence of NATO-directed subversion in order to justify a crackdown and possibly deeper Kremlin intervention. [20]

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

Click here to download the PDF.

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[1] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-enables-lukashenko-to....

[2] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697682.html;

[3] https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/lukashenko-vpervye-za-chetvert-veka-prishlos-prinimat-samoe-serjeznoe-reshenie-403766-2020/.

[4] https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/lukashenko-u-nas-s-putinym-edinoe-mnenie-belarus-travjat-chtoby-potom-brositsja-na-rossiju-403786-2020/

[5] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697686.html; https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/lukashenko-vpervye-za-chetvert-veka-prishlos-prinimat-samoe-serjeznoe-reshenie-403766-2020/.

[6] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697692.html.

[7] https://42.tut((.))by/697663; https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1296907996602261511?s=20.

[8] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-moscow-sets-conditions-for.html.

[9] https://news.tut((.))by/society/697676.html.

[10] https://news.tut((.))by/society/697676.html.

[11] https://charter97((.))org/ru/news/2020/8/22/390519/.

[12] https://news.tut((.))by/society/697676.html.

[13] https://t((.))me/pressmvd/1950?fbclid=IwAR1lIdVnt8cewN21Awz0O8wKTvWwbdCKUX3LBrXyGo2KhSREEoIn3SATgU8.

[14] https://t((.))me/nexta_live/9103.

[15] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-moscow-sets-conditions-for.html

[16] https://www.lrt((.))lt/en/news-in-english/19/1210622/lithuania-plans-human-chain-from-vilnius-to-belarusian-border-to-show-solidarity

[17] https://www.lrt((.))lt/en/news-in-english/19/1210622/lithuania-plans-human-chain-from-vilnius-to-belarusian-border-to-show-solidarity; https://www.lrt(.)lt/en/news-in-english/19/1210622/lithuania-plans-human-chain-from-vilnius-to-belarusian-border-to-show-solidarity.

[18] https://www.kp((.))ru/online/news/3979551/; https://t((.))me/pressmvd/1950?.

[19] https://eadaily((.))com/ru/news/2020/08/15/litovcev-i-latyshey-zovut-vystroitsya-v-cep-solidarnosti-so-zmagarami; https://eadaily((.))com/ru/news/2019/09/04/litovskuyu-issledovatelnicu-holokosta-vanagayte-snova-nachali-travit; https://eadaily((.))com/ru/news/2018/07/26/deputata-titova-osypali-mukoy-za-vyskazyvaniya-o-litovskom-lesnom-brate.

[20] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-moscow-sets-conditions-for.html.

Warning: Moscow Sets Conditions for Kinetic Intervention in Belarus Through New Information Operation

August 21, 2020, 7:30 pm EDT

 By George Barros

The Kremlin has assumed direct control of Belarusian media to conduct an information campaign for its own ends as the key component of its hybrid operation in Belarus. Lukashenko stated on August 21 he “invited” Russian media professionals to work at Belarusian state media.[1] Lukashenko’s statement confirms ISW’s August 20 assessment that the Kremlin began an information operation in Belarus and took control of Belarusian state news agencies on August 19.[2] The Kremlin, Lukashenko, Belarusian authorities, and Belarusian state media organizations’ rhetoric are converging. Belarusian state entities are acting as components of this Kremlin information operation and must be studied as such.  This information operation is likely a component of a larger Russian hybrid operation currently underway.

 The Kremlin’s information operation is manipulating the information space by perpetuating false memes.  The final section in this update includes a list of false memes and an explanation of why they are false.  Kremlin information operations rely on shifting the narrative over time, an approach that depends in turn on the target audience losing track of previous events, statements, and arguments.[3]  It is vitally important for policy makers and Western media to remain oriented on the original sequence of events and the various claims and arguments advanced by Lukashenko and Moscow and to resist Russian and Belarusian efforts to rewrite recent history in support of their efforts to shape the information space. A forthcoming ISW report on the Russian definition of hybrid warfare will further expand on the Russian approaches to such conflicts and use of information operations in them.

 

The Kremlin is obfuscating Moscow’s ongoing intervention in Belarus, framing Russian involvement as a future possibility when it is, in fact, already underway. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei on August 21 and agreed anti-Lukashenko protests do not require external intervention at this time.[4] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov additionally stated the same day that Moscow is ready to do “everything possible” to help resolve the protests if Lukashenko requests Kremlin support.[5]

 

The Kremlin is falsely framing the protests as a NATO versus Russia conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a Russian Security Council meeting on August 21 and reiterated the unacceptability of “external interference” in Belarus.[6] Lukashenko made a speech framing the protests as an international conflict between NATO and Russia during a visit to the Dzerzhinsky agricultural plant on August 21.[7] Lukashenko stated the US goal, with the Europeans “playing along,” is establishing the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine as a “sanitary cordon” around Russia.[8] Lukashenko accused NATO of trying to separate Grodno from Belarus and claimed protesters are flying Polish flags in Grodno.[9] Lukashenko has referred to the protests as a hybrid war since August 6, but had not previously framed it explicitly as a NATO vs Russia conflict.[10] Lavrov and Makei called on external “players” to respect the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Belarus and to stop attempts to provoke confrontation in Belarus on August 21.[11] This rhetoric is consistent with how the Kremlin describes Western efforts to pressure Russia through color revolutions.

 

The information operation is perpetuating falsehoods about the protesters’ NATO allegiance. Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko said Belarus' withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) would result in income losses of about $300-350 million annually for the Belarusian defense industry.[12] This statement is a dual attempt to degrade support for protests among Belarusians by appealing to an economic incentive and also to perpetuate the false meme that "protesters are trying to break the CSTO" – which Lukashenko originally claimed on August 18.[13] Lukashenko also falsely accused his opposition of seeking to impose “a creeping ban on the Russian language,” establish an autocephalous Belarusian Orthodox Church independent from the Moscow Patriarchate (referring to the establishment of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s autocephaly in January 2019), join the EU and NATO, and close Russia’s two radar bases in Belarus on August 18.[14]

 

The Kremlin is retaining flexibility in its information campaign to exploit any future changes in NATO’s posture or the protesters’ demands. The evolving information operation in Belarus is distorting the true order of facts about the anti-Lukashenko protests. The Kremlin already exploited NATO’s Defender 2020 exercises in Poland by falsely claiming these were a buildup against Belarus.[15] The Kremlin is likely prepared to exploit any future pro-Western shifts in the protesters’ demands by having already falsely claimed the protesters are anti-Russian NATO proxies.

 

The West is contesting the Belarusian information space with its own information operations. Lukashenko continues to suppress print media and the internet inside Belarus.[16] Poland’s state public radio broadcaster Polskie Radio announced it will launch special news broadcasts for Belarus via long wave radio on August 21.[17]  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty’s Belarusian serviced resumed radio broadcasting on medium waves into Belarus, as it did during the Cold War, on August 11.[18] The Kremlin will likely frame Polish and American information activities as evidence of NATO interference in sovereign Belarusian and Union State affairs.

 

Lukashenko’s Kremlin-backed counteroffensive is suppressing large-scale protests for now. Lukashenko is reportedly conducting targeted arrests of Belarusian protest leaders who brokered the August 18 compromise with the Grodno City Executive Committee – the key development that triggered the Kremlin’s intervention.[19] The Minsk Automobile Plant fired strike leaders on August 21.[20] Small-scale protests persist throughout Belarus as of August 21.[21] Protest organizers have not called for large-scale demonstrations before Sunday, August 23, however, so the cause of the reduction in protest activity is not entirely clear.

Lukashenko will likely use force against protesters on Sunday, August 23. The opposition is preparing for a large protest on Minsk’s Independence Square on August 23 from 2:00 – 7:00 pm Minsk time. Opposition leader Svetlana Tikanouskaya urged protesters to prepare for August 23 protests in an August 21 press conference, her first full press conference since fleeing to Lithuania on August 11.[22] Belarusian news outlet Nasha Niva reported Belarusian Defense Minister Victor Khrenin said the Belarusian army could use lethal weapons against protesters in a secret meeting with Belarusian military officers on August 19.[23] Belarusian security forces with Kremlin support will likely crack down on the Sunday march.[24]

The Kremlin will likely intervene with force if Lukashenko loses control of the situation again. Lukashenko will likely “ask” the Kremlin for deeper intervention if protesters reconsolidate and threaten Lukashenko’s control over Belarus or if Belarusian security services defections resume. The Kremlin currently holds significant leverage over Lukashenko and may send its security forces into Belarus without Lukashenko’s consent if it perceives its objectives are threatened.

A deeper Russian intervention into Belarus under the pretext of protecting Belarus against “foreign interference” from NATO may not end at Belarus’ borders. The Kremlin may seek to additionally destabilize NATO allies Poland and Lithuania with hybrid operations below the threshold of an invasion.

A deeper Kremlin intervention would likely result in a “soft annexation” of Belarus. Lavrov and Makei discussed Putin and Lukashenko’s “agreements” during their call.[25] The “agreements” may refer to recent concessions Lukashenko made to Putin under duress while Lukashenko was losing control over Belarus before the Kremlin’s intervention. The Kremlin seeks to integrate Belarus into Russia via the existing Union State treaty.[26] The Kremlin seeks to establish permanent strategic Russian bases in Belarus postured against Ukraine and NATO.[27] Lukashenko will likely be forced to concede to Kremlin desires after having resisted them for several years.

The information operation will likely amplify and perpetuate the following memes that are based on falsehoods and/or distortions of the actual sequence of events:

• The Kremlin did not intervene in Belarus and is not intervening now. (Russian personnel are more or less openly running Belarusian state television.) [28]
• The EU and/or NATO is threatening Belarus and/or Russia with a military buildup in Poland and Lithuania. (NATO has conducted no military build-up and no unscheduled or unannounced exercises on its borders with Belarus as of August 21.)
• The EU and/or NATO seek to overthrow Lukashenko in an illegal junta as the Euromaidan did to former pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych in Ukraine in 2014. (Belarusian protests began as an organic response to Lukashenko’s incompetent handling of the COVID crisis and transformed into demonstrations against his obvious stealing of the presidential election, and were neither initiated nor organized or led by the EU, NATO, or the US).[29]
• Anti-Lukashenko protesters are pro-western NATO proxies. (Demonstrators and opposition leaders have been notably focused on grievances with Lukashenko rather than calling for deeper integration with the EU, NATO, or the West, in marked contrast with Euromaidan leaders in Ukraine in 2014.)[30]
• Anti-Lukashenko protesters are Russophobic and seek to ban the Russian language in Belarus, create an autocephalous Belarusian Orthodox Church withdraw Belarus from the Union State and CSTO. (There is no evidence for any of these claims as of August 21.)[31]
• Military action from the Kremlin-Lukashenko axis is inherently legitimate given external NATO aggression and Belarus and Russia’s Union State and CSTO treaties. (There has been neither NATO aggression against Belarus nor any build-up by NATO in preparation for such aggression. Lukashenko can, of course, call on Russia to provide assistance in oppressing his own people on a bilateral basis or under the auspices of either the CSTO or the Union State agreement. The West began radio programming into Belarus in response to Lukashenko shutting off the internet on August 9, not in order to dispose Lukashenko.)[32]

 

 ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates

Click here to download the PDF.

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[1] https://www.currenttime.tv/a/lukashenko-confirms-russian-journalists-in-belarus/30795745.html

[2] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-kremlin-backed.html; https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1296767983809896448?s=20

[3] http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Report%201%20Putin's%20Information%20Warfare%20in%20Ukraine-%20Soviet%20Origins%20of%20Russias%20Hybrid%20Warfare.pdf ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2018/07/putin-poised-for-easy-victory-ahead-of.html ;

[4] https://www.mid(.)ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4294262

[5] https://nbnews.com.ua/politika/2020/08/21/peskov-zayavil-o-gotovnosti-rossii-pomoch-belarusi-chto-reshili-v-kremle/

[6] http://kremlin(.)ru/events/president/news/63926

[7] https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/ot-ameriki-do-varshavy-lukashenko-zajavil-chto-protiv-belarusi-dejstvujut-neskolko-tsentrov-sil-403658-2020/?utm_source=belta&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=accent

[8] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697579.html

[9]  http://president.gov(.)by/ru/news_ru/view/rabochaja-poezdka-v-minskuju-oblast-24360olis; http://president.gov(.)by/ru/news_ru/view/rabochaja-poezdka-v-minskuju-oblast-24360

[10]  Lukashenko did not specify where the hybrid war was coming from at that point in order to leave him options to blame Russia. https://news.tut((.))by/economics/695619.html

[11] https://www.mid(.)ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4294262

[12] https://eng.belta(.)by/economics/view/belarus-withdrawal-from-csto-estimated-at-300-350mn-annually-132760-2020/

[13] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/ot-razryva-s-rossiej-do-vhozhdenija-v-es-i-nato-lukashenko-otmechaet-polnuju-nesostojatelnost-403262-2020 ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

[14] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/ot-razryva-s-rossiej-do-vhozhdenija-v-es-i-nato-lukashenko-otmechaet-polnuju-nesostojatelnost-403262-2020 ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=wUggOzKJZ4k&feature=emb_title

[15] https://www.eur.army.mil/DefenderEurope/ ; https://www.eurointegration.com(.)ua/rus/news/2020/08/18/7113351/ ; https://lenta(.)ru/news/2020/08/19/otan/

[16] https://news.tut((.))by/society/697555.html

[17] https://www.polskieradio(.)pl/395/7785/Artykul/2568689,Polish-Radio-launches-special-news-broadcasts-for-Belarus

[18] https://www.svoboda.org/a/30778440.html

[19] https://twitter.com/Q0MT6pFmbVqynsM/status/1296772070601306112 ;

[20] https://www.svaboda.org/a/30795685.html

[21] https://www.dw(.)com/ru/protesty-v-belarusi-glava-mid-frg-napomnil-o-prazhskoj-vesne/a-54641926

[22] https://news.tut((.))by/economics/697560.html

[23] https://nn(.)by/?c=ar&i=257508&lang=ru

[24] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-enables-lukashenko-to.html

[25] https://www.mid(.)ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4294262

[26] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/ot-razryva-s-rossiej-do-vhozhdenija-v-es-i-nato-lukashenko-otmechaet-polnuju-nesostojatelnost-403262-2020 ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

[27] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/02/russia-in-review-belarus-update.html; https://www.rubaltic(.)ru/news/06112018-lukashenko-otkazalsya-ot-razmeshcheniya-rossiyskoy-voennoy-bazy/

[28] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-kremlin-backed.html ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

[29] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/russia-in-review-turmoil-in-belarus.html ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

[30] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

[31] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

[32] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-belarussian-opposition-reaches.html ; https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-belarusian-president-lukashenko.html